Transcript Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en Afrique de l`Ouest et

Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en
Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre
Burkina Faso: Lacina Balma and Samuel Kabore
Cameroon: Christian Emini and Paul Ningaye
Ghana: Theodore Antwi-Asare, Edgar Cooke and Daniel Twerefou
Regional: Sami Bibi, John Cockburn, Massa Coulibaly, Ismaël Fofana and Luca Tiberti
Commissioned by UNICEF’s West and Central Africa Regional Office
The global economic crisis – Including children in the policy response
ODI-UNICEF, London, November 9-10, 2009
The Poverty and Economic Policy (PEP) Research network
• Capacity building, research funding and promotion of developing
country researchers
• Research grants (and scientific support) to conduct policy research on
poverty issues.
• Open and competitive global call for proposals (deadline: Jan. 6, 2010)
• 150 projects in Africa, Asia and Latin America (45.7% female; 22.5%
under 30): Since 2002
• Activities: training workshops, study visits, distance support, general
meetings, national and international policy conferences, working
papers, journal articles, policy briefs, presentations in international
conferences, newsletters.
• Child welfare topics: Policy impact evaluation, community-based
poverty monitoring, macro-micro shock and policy simulations,
multidimensional poverty analysis, implementing the capabilities
approach, incidence analysis…
• Offices: Africa (Dakar), Asia (Manila), Latin America (Lima) and Quebec.
• Funding: AusAID, CIDA and IDRC
www.pep-net.org
Objective: Simulate child welfare impacts of the global crisis and policy
responses in Burkina Faso, Cameroon and Ghana (and S. Africa)
Impacts
Export
prices/demand
National economy (CGE model)
Import prices
Consumer
prices
Input
prices
Producer
prices
Employment
FDI
Foreign aid
Remittances
Household (micro models)
Child welfare: monetary poverty,
hunger, schooling, labor, health
Methodology
1. Macro impacts: CGE model capturing main channels of impact of the global
crisis on the national economy, notably prices, wages and employment.
2. Child welfare impacts
– Monetary poverty: Based on changes in prices, wages, employment and
remittances
– Hunger (caloric adequacy): Consumption behavior + nutritional tables
– School/child labor participation: Econometric estimation: f(real income)
– Health access/choice of supplier: Econometric estimation: f(real income)
3. Simulations
– Business as usual (no crisis): historic trends (6-8 years)
– Crisis
- 2009: Various sources (IMF, UNCTAD, national, etc.)
- 2010: Stagnation, except import prices
- 2011: Back to historic growth trends
– Policy response (financed by foreign aid equal to 1% of 2008 GDP)
 Food subsidies
 Child cash transfers: proxy means, no administrative costs, sharing
Impacts on monetary poverty and hunger in BF
Change in child monetary rate (% points)
compared to the base year (36.3%)
Change in hunger (% points) compared to
the base year (64.9)
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
BaU
Crisis
Food subsidy
Cash transfer
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-6
-6
2009 2010 2011
BaU
Crisis
Food subsidy Cash transfer
2009 2010 2011
Education and Child Labour: 6 to 10 years
Change in child labour, 6-10 years old
(% points) compared to the base year
(40.3%)
Change in net participation rate, 610 years old (% points) compared to
the base year (32.4%)
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
BaU
Crisis
Price subsidy
Cash transfer
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-0.8
-1.0
-1.0
2009 2010 2011
BaU
Crisis
2009
Price subsidy
2010
2011
Cash transfer
Education and Child Labour: 11 to 14 years
Change in net participation rate, 11-14
years old (% points) compared to the
base year (37.6%)
Change in child labour, 11-14 years old
(% points) compared to the base year
(52.6%)
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
BaU
Crisis
Price subsidy
Cash transfer
BaU
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-0.8
2009
2010
2011
Crisis
2009
Price subsidy
2010
2011
Cash transfer
Health: 0 to 14 years
Change in consultation rate among ill
children, 0-14 years old, (% points), in
comparison with base year (67.6%)
Change in consultation rate at
traditional healers (% points) in
comparison with the base year (16.7%)
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
BaU
Crisis
Price subsidy
Cash transfer
BaU
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-0.8
-1.0
-1.0
2009
2010
2011
Crisis
2009
Price subsidy
2010
2011
Cash transfer
Targetting (proxy means)
Cash transfers target predicted poor children = f(demographics, housing conditions,
durable goods, region): easily observable and non-manipulable characteristics
Predicted status
Exclusion errors
national
urban
rural
Inclusion errors
Actual
nonnonnonCash transfer
status
poor poor poor
poor poor
poor
amount
Burkina
Burkina Faso
non-poor
12340 CFA francs per
poor
child
Cameroon
Cameroon:
21065 CFA francs per non-poor
child
poor
Ghana
Ghana:
23.10 cedis per child
non-poor
poor
63.1
23.4
36.9
76.6
74.7
9.6
25.3
90.4
59.4
24.4
40.6
75.6
70.0
9.9
30.0
90.1
93.3
58.1
6.7
41.9
41.7
5.1
58.3
94.9
60.8
19.2
39.2
80.8
67.9
23.9
32.1
76.1
55.0
17.9
45.0
82.1
Impact of the global crisis on child poverty
in West and Central Africa
Take-home lessons
• Crisis brings many shocks: imports, exports, FDI, aid, remittances
• Complex impacts: wages, employment, self-employment income,
consumer prices
• Strongly increases monetary poverty and hunger (up to 10 percentage
points)
• Mildly reduces schooling and recourse to (modern) health services (up
to 1 percentage point), while increasing child labor
• Food subsidies marginally offset the impacts of the crisis
• (Well-) targeted cash transfers are far more effective
• (Pursuit of fiscal balance further (slightly) worsens the impacts)
• Future work: focus subsidies on poor child foods, focus CTs on
youngest children, other financing (domestic taxes, deficit, other cuts),
other dimensions (mortality, morbidity, nutritional status, etc.)