Transcript Slide 1

POVERTY IN AFRICA
Using Systems Engineering to tackle an
insoluble problem
MIT SDM Program – January 2004
Design Challenge II
Approach Themes
•
•
•
•
Team 1: Systems Analysis - Communication for Education
Team 2: Root Cause Analysis – System Dynamics
Team 3: Causal Analysis – Continental Highway Building Program
Team 4: Build on current programs – KRITI (Knowledge Reach
Improvement Technology)
• Team 5: System Analysis – SMART Plan (Specific, Measurable,
Achievable, Result-oriented, Time-Based)
• Team 6: Holistic Approach – Rhizome Model
Team 1: System Analysis
• Where do we start?
– Brainstorming within team
pointed to education
– Review of literature revealed
govt policies, good
governance, better data,
“voice” of people
– System dynamics models
developed to help focus ..
Common Thread!
Political
Education
War & Conflicts
...
Political Stability
Good Government
Social
Law Enforcement
Education
AIDS
• How to use system dynamics
models?
– Concept was to look for
common threads
– These might suggest areas to
focus on
– Conclusion: good governance
and education
...
Health
...
Economical
...
Education
Income
GDP
Concept development
• Communication and education were therefore chosen as
the area for a project
• Concept:
– ICT (information and communication technology) is a fundamental
ingredient in the development toolkit
• Focus on primary education, health, agriculture etc
• ICT also enables greater connectivity between all parties,
facilitating greater ‘voice’ from community
• Implementation proposal:
– Africa Education Network (AEN)
– To date effort has been on development of ICT infrastructure
– Proposal is to focus on Content and put in place the necessary
capacities to manage both Content and Connectivity
Project Overview
Opportunities
• UNESCO has developed CMCs (Community Multimedia Centers)
focusing on:
– Radio
– Low cost internet systems
– Low cost renewable energy sources
• Existing satellite coverage over sub-Saharan continent
AEN project will
• be a continental broadcaster of education content for television,
radio, and internet
• be a satellite-delivered content provider of educational information
• utilize Africans to Educate Africa, focusing on garnering support and
hiring from African Universities
• attempt to create relationships with the African Union and UNESCO
in hopes of utilizing their infrastructure to facilitate delivery and
develop education-specific content
Team 2: The Process
• Achieve
Celebrate Achievements
Build for Tomorrow
• Sustain the Plan
• Visualize
Problem Statement
• Commit
Assign the team
• Prioritize

Improve
Design and Implement
Improvements
• Brainstorming
• Development Plan
• Technology Based Improvements
Determine Improvement
Priorities
• Fishbone Diagram
• 5 Whys
• Root Causes
• Characterize
Define Existing Process Plan
Improvements
• Root Cause detailed analysis
• Dynamics Diagrams
Root Cause Analysis
Root Cause Analysis
Summery of Root
Causes
•Socio-Political
•Economic
•Education
•Healthcare
•Infrastructure
Focus on Issues
Technology where5
technology can
have an impact
Whys Mind-Manager Tree
Focus on Key Root
Causes
Rate Importance and
Level of Impact
Identify All Root Causes
System Dynamics – Short Term
AID from
Stakeholders
Identify Countries
for Participation
Family
Welfare
System For Accountability
Build Strategic
Partnership with
Participating Country
Policies &
Reforms
Focused
Training
Improved
Healthcare
Industry
Provides Healthier Workforce
Infrastructure
Manpower from
Neighboring
Countries
Labor Intensive
Manufacturing,
Agriculture, etc.
Improves Access
for Industry
Education
Business Investment
AID
Mineral Resources
AID + GDP >= Dev Cost + Maint Cost + Import Costs
System Dynamics – Long Term
Build Strategic
Partnership with Next
Country Group
Maintain Strategic
Partnership with
Participating Country
Family
Welfare
World
Standard
Healthcare
Training
Policies &
Reforms
Industry
Provides Healthier Workforce
Businesses
Infrastructure
Improves Access
for Industry
Business Investment
Real Estate Equity
Est. $1trillion (1997)
AID + GDP >= Dev Cost
+ Maint Cost + Import Costs
Next Generation
Workforce
Education
Teach Him to Fish, You Feed Him for Life
Team 3: Approach
• System’s approach
– Gathered information and brainstormed
– Divided into major areas
– Identified links within these areas: cause effects
– Selected
ECONOMY
EDUCATION
• areas to impact, what can we affect?
HUNGER
HEALTH
• core issues, what are the root causes
POLITICS
CULTURE
– Identified common major root cause
GEOGRAPHY
INFRASTRUCTURE
– Solutions based upon most influence on identified root cause
Short Term – Long Term Recommendations
• Short-term Goal
– Pilot program CHBP (Douala to Bangui, 1100 km)
– Program combines infrastructure and educational development
focused on socio-cultural growth
• Long-term Goal
– Education
• Ties to political, economical
and cultural growth
– Economic stimulus
• Through trade, region cooperation
• Access to previously unavailable resources to landlocked countries
– Whole “equatorial” road (Douala to Mombasa)
• Long-term
– Use the model: community development while providing
education to the people
– Continue CDHP throughout all regions of Africa
Lessons Learned
• Lessons learned about complex systems
– There are so many aspects to consider to come up with
viable solutions
– So many stakeholders with diverse values that it is difficult to
address everybody’s needs
• Lessons about Africa
– Access to education is key
– Politics are the big road block
– We realized an appreciation for the Intricacies of the issues of
Sub-Saharan Africa (social, political, economical, cultural, etc.)
Team 4: Issues & Proposed
Approaches
Population
Solution
Capital
Resources
Partners in
Development
Sub-Saharan Africa: Approaches
• No radical measures
– Do not rock the boat too much
– Build on the good work
– Drastic intervention is often counterproductive
• Identify existing successful projects and amplify
their effect using the right technologies
• KRITI is our alternative solution to accomplish
the above
The KRITI Project
KRITI: Knowledge Reach Improvement Technology
Initiative
• Build alternative education &
knowledge delivery
mechanisms
• Develop “knowledgebase” of
information with the help of
aid organizations
Leverage
technology as a means to be more efficient in
development efforts
Very low barrier-to-entry in terms of costs & skills
Apply concepts of “knowledge-web”
Team 5: Approach - SMART
I. Framework
POVERTY
AID
IMMEDIATE NEEDS
Humanitarian
Concept
Strategy
Execution
SUSTAINABLE
Development
Monitoring System
CC Matrix
Coordination System
Decomposition Model
Stakeholder Model
IMPLEMENTATION
(Tech, Non-Tech.)
Concept
II. CC Matrix
Influence
on Poverty
CAUSES
Corruption
3
Lack of
Infrastructure
5
Ineffective utilis. of
nat. resources
3
Poor Education
5
Low National
Wealth
3
Instable Geopoli.
Situation
3
High Population
Growth
4
Lack of Health
care
3
Low Economic
Growth
5
Σ→
Execution
CONSEQUENCES
COUNTRY: Burkina Faso
DATE: 27-Jan-04
Strategy
Corruption
Ineffective
Lack of
utilisation
Poor
Infrastruct
of natural Education
ure
res.
2
Low
National
Wealth
Instable
geopolitical
Situation
1
2
1
2
4
3
1
High
Population
Growth
Lack of
Health
Care
Low
Economic
Growth
1
2
11
3
5
16
3
6
4
16
3
4
2
5
1
2
2
1
5
2
18
5
2
1
2
5
3
2
2
4
1
5
3
9
15
12
13
12
5
5
2
9
4
10
12
20
97
II. C. …contd.
Concept
Strategy
Execution
(Scatter-gram)
20
Low National Wealth
Lack of infrastructure
Poor education
# of consequences
15
Lack of health care
Corruption
10
Instable geopolitical
situation
Ineffective utilization
of natural resources
5
High population growth
Low economic growth
0
0
5
10
15
# of causes
20
25
III. 3 year and 5 year Plan
Concept
Strategy
Execution
(Power Supply + Road)
Start
3 years
3yr. - 10%
5 years
5yr. - 30%
Butane
STAKEHOLDERS
 Burkina Faso Govt.
- Expand national
campaign to promote
the use of Butane
 International Cooperation
- Donate used portable
Butane containers
- Pay for transportation
to BF
 World Organizations
- Coordinate efforts to
provide used portable
Butane containers
Gravel-surface Roads
Stirling Engine
STAKEHOLDERS
STAKEHOLDERS
 Burkina Faso Govt.
- Formulate policy on
infrastructure with
prioritization on road
constructions in areas
where Butane is
promoted as an
alternative energy
source
 International Cooperation
- Provide support on the
application of laborbased method in road
construction
 Burkina Faso Govt.
- Promote use of Stirling
Engines
 International Cooperation
- Subsidize development
and deployment costs
of Stirling Engines
 Local Administration
- Substitute Stirling
Engines for Classical
Engines to produce
electricity
Team 6: The Rhizome Group
What We Believe:
We believe that an integrated solution, based on a
holistic examination of the complete system, is required
to resolve the “poverty” issue in Sub-Saharan Africa
Our Mission:
To enable the transition of a group from an unstable
socioeconomic state to a developing, learning, and self
sustaining state by planning, and implementing highly
customized and integrated solutions.
Promote
Entrepreneurship
Economic Growth
Increase Life
Expectancy
Health Care
Infrastructure
Government
Policy
Economic
Stability
Agriculture
Human
Development
Decrease Poverty
Industry
Development
Foreign Investors
Education
Social Services
Increase Employment
Stabilize Economy
Privatize Economy
The Rhizome Model
Research
De-scope
Focused
Research
Customized
Plan
Rhizome
Implementation
Rhizome Implementation Process
Nigeria example
•
•
•
Initial Layer
– Government Policy Reform
Second Layer
– Utilize Petroleum
– Advance Agriculture
External
– Improve Infrastructure
Transition Layer
– Improve Health
– Advance Education
– Advance Human Rights
– BOT (Build - Own/Operate Transfer)
•
Mitigation Layer
– Adjustments due to transient
circumstances
Reaction of
Surrounding
Countries
Government
Policies
Healt
h
Infrastructure
Educatio
n
Internal
Agriculture
Social Equality
Petroleum
What did we learn?
• The system is very complex
– no simple solutions
– Difficult to predict affect of interventions
• Development must try to affect all areas together
– education, health, policies, economic growth etc
• Development requires
–
–
–
–
Lots of NGOs, local civil society organizations
Lots of communication between everyone!
Common measures of poverty => MDG indicators!
Adaptability – listen to people, adapt accordingly
• ICTs will play a major role in education and empowering
people to help themselves and provide feedback to help
steer development
• We have a better respect for NGOs and their challenges!
Summary and Lessons Learned
• Summary
• There is no golden bullet, the problem is not a technical one
• The dynamics of the system is the most important aspect for any solution
• Must negotiate commitment for the change from all the stakeholders
• Government
• Grass Roots
• Investment community
• AID associations
• Application of Technology is only a product of the process
• Solutions will be different in each county
• Sticking to a disciplined process will allow the freedom for change
• Short Term: Use Industry and AID to spin up dynamics
• Long Term: Manage a stable economy allowing removal of AID
• Lessons Learned
• Not a two week problem – too long a history to be understood
• Dynamics are incredibly complicated and diverse
• Need to implement change taking into account the politics, culture, and structure.
One aspect in isolation is not enough.
• Complex Systems Dynamics (like Africa) can not be viewed in a single shot