Transcript 创业策划分析

Business Planning Analysis-04
Name: Lee Xiantao
Branches: Business School , Binhai University
Tel: 15253221531
E-mail: [email protected]
Preparation
Question:
(1) Are you familiar with China’s property market?
How do you think about the future of property market?
(2) Is there any really asset bubble in property market?
How do you think about “investment” and “speculation” ?
Property Market in China
(1) Evolutionary road of property market
(2) Marketing analysis of property market
(3) Asset bubble in property market
(4) Funding chain of property developers
(5) Mainstay industry
---China’s Urbanization VS. Pseudo-Urbanization
(6) Opportunity and challenge of property market
Economy development
Gini coefficient
Year
GDP per capita
Gini Coefficient
1980
$312
0.230
1985
$288
0.341
1990
$339
0.348
1995
$601
0.389
2000
$946
0.417
2005
$1703
0.470
2010
$2520
0.520
Marketing analysis of property market
land finance
Marketing analysis of property market
(2) Reference data—Housing price in Beijing
Marketing analysis of property market
(2) Reference data—Housing price in Shanghai
Marketing analysis of property market
(2) Reference data—Housing price in Guangzhou
Marketing analysis of property market
(2) Reference data—Housing price in Shenzhen
Marketing analysis of property market
(2) Reference data—Housing price in Qingdao
Marketing analysis of property market
(2) Reference data—Housing price in Jinan
Marketing analysis of property market
(3) Reference data—the extreme case (Housing price in Tongzhou)
1. Market analysis ---Domestic
perspective
Funding chain of property developers
① Structure of fund source
Domestic loan
(mortgage assets for cash from bank)
Self-financing
(own capital)
Buyers deposit
(Buyer)
Advance payment (Buyer—30%)
Housing mortgage (mortgage house for banking loan—70%)
Funding chain of property developers
② Policy adjustments
☆ raise down payment on the first house purchase to over 30%;
the second house purchase to over 50%
☆ no lending to third house purchase;
☆ property tax implementation is just timing issue;
☆ limit purchase
Urbanization and Pseudo-urbanization
① Urbanization
The following infrastructure indicators may serve to provide
some valid evidences of China’s urbanization level at this
moment:
☆ Population of tap water accessibility accounts for 58% of
urban population;
☆ Population of gas accessibility accounts for 55% of urban
population;
☆ Highway density is 4022 km per 10,000 sq km
☆ Railway density is 90 km per 10,000 sq km
Urbanization and Pseudo-urbanization
② Pseudo-urbanization
The census data shows that, for those whose residential place
and registered place are not the same, and also had left their
registered place for more than half a year, the population is
261,386,075. This number of floating population will make
China’s urbanization rate lies between 30.17% and 49.68%.
Opportunity/challenge of property market
Conclusion