Transcript Laszlo Tunyogi Dr.

US. AND EU FREE TRADE
AGREEMENT
ECONOMIC NATO - OR A DREAM
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr.
GGI CONFERENCE October,
2013, ROME
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OVERVIEW
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Antecedent
Why FTA?
Why U.S – EU?
Hurdles to the deal
What to do in GGI?
Conclusions
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GGI CONFERENCE October,
2013, ROME
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STATE OF THE UNION
13. 02. 2013.
• „Tonight, I’m announcing
that we will launch talks
on a comprehensive
Transatlantic Trade and
Investment Partnership
with the European Union,
because trade that is fair
and free across the
Atlantic supports millions
of good-paying American
jobs.”
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Barroso, on Wednesday 13
February
• “There have been in
the past several
attempts to launch
this process of
negotiations, but
every time there
were obstacles and
resistance.”
(WTO, multilateral
attempt: Deadend)
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Trade-negotiation round of the
World Trade Organization
(WTO) 2001.-2012(?)
• Lower trade barriers around the
world
• In 2008, talks have stalled over a
divide on major issues,
• such as agriculture,
• industrial tariffs and
• non-tariff barriers,
• services, and
• trade remedies
 agricultural subsidies
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The most significant differences are
between
European Union (EU),
United States (USA),
Japan
Brazil,
China,
India,
South Korea,
South Africa.
•
The July 2008 negotiations broke
down after failing to reach a
compromise on agricultural import
rules
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Barroso to John Kerry
22. 04. 2013.
„I believe we can get a
mandate from our
member states before
summer, that we can
keep the momentum
and have this historic
game changer
agreement ready as
soon as possible”
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Rompuy, Obama, Barroso
„The progress achieved
bilaterally on the
liberalisation of trade and
investment and the
regulatory and non-tariff
barrier issues will help to
breathe new life into
transatlantic trade, as
well as help to develop
global rules to reinforce
the multilateral trade
system”.
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De Gucht (EU Trade comissioner) and Froman
(US Deputy National Security Adviser)
„The future transatlantic
agreement was not aimed
against developing countries,
and that it would give fresh
momentum to the multilateral
negotiations at the WTO.
“Nothing that we are doing
here is about ganging up on
emerging economies. Our
fervent hope is that what we're
doing here will have a
positive impact, including
with countries like Brazil”,
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Behind statements
• US:
– Reindustrialiling the USA
• Return manufacturing
activity from China
– Computers, cars,
householdappliances,
furnitures, clothing
– EU is more trasparent,
prices, costs about the
same, intellectual
properties are respected.
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• EU:
• To avoid the risk of
becoming isolated if
Americans focus on Pacific
Ocean against China and
Asia
• Reduce Asia-s overweight
on EU market
• Convince Great Britain to
stay in the EU (referendum
until 2017)
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OECD statistics (2011)
Total population (million)
EU (27)
USA
China
India
502
312
1.347
1.210
GDP output approach
(trillion USD)
16.466
14.991
11.300
4.200
GDP growth rate (%)
1,5
1,8
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Russia
142,9
2.558
4,3
South
Africa
Brazil
50,5
192,8
546
5.879
3,5
7,5
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Trade relation is the backbone of
the world economy
• European Union and the Unites States account for about
half of the world GDP (31,5 Bn =47%)
• one third of global trade flows
• Each day goods and services of almost € 2 billion are
traded bilaterally
• bring overall annual gains of 0.5% increase in GDP for
the EU and a 0.4% increase in GDP for the US by 2027.
• €86 billion of added annual income to the EU economy
and €65 billion of added annual income for the US
economy.
• BUT: BRICS account for more than 1/3 of the world
GDP( 24,5 Bn = 37%)
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OBSTACLES
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Time-schedules
Fassion of pessimism in Europe
Local interests
Different regulations
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Time schedule
– negotiating mandate,
agreed in the 27 capitals
(28 from 1 July with
Croatia), is not easy
– current European
Commission expires in
autumn 2014
– On the American side, in
two years' time there will be
the mid-term elections,
• Without the ultimate
approval of US Congress
and the EU Parliament,
there will be no
agreement
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Local Interests
• to France, GMOs (genetically
modified organisms) are to be
hived off from the negotiations
• Château, prosecco or
champagne denominations for
wines cannot be indicated on
products across the Atlantic
• France also wants to exclude
defence („we will not accept
opening ours when the
American defence market is
closed”, (French Minister for
Trade Nicole Bricq)
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Elimination of Custom Duties
– tariff barriers are
relatively low today
(on average 5.2% in
the EU, 3.5% to the
United States)
Eliminating existing
tariffs would boost
two-way trade by $120
billion within five years
and and $180 billion
the U.S. and E.U
combined GDP.
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Behind the border obstacles
• different safety or
environmental and
safety (test)
standards for cars.
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Light
Door-lock
Brakes
Steering
Seats
Seat belt
Electric window
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Cultural and social issues
Several European
professional film
organizations
(Eurocinéma,
EuropaCinéma,
EuropaDistribution, FIAD,
SAA and UNIC) to ask
European leaders not to
include the audiovisual
sector in the draft free trade
agreement. (Commission
staff said that this did not
mean that the audiovisual
sector would be totally
excluded from the
negotiations.)
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chemicals, pharmaceuticals and
medical devices
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Consequences
• Unnecessary barriers
– European blue cheese (not pasteurised)
• Unnecessary expenses
– Separate production lines (car security
standards)
• Unnecessary duplication
– European Chemicals Agency /US
requirements
SOME OPEN QUESTIONS
-How can we reduce legal risk, compliance
complexity and regulatory uncertainty due to
differences in the EU and the US regimes?
-Does mutual recognition require identical legal
texts or should the objective and the outcome
of the regulation be decisive?
-How can we facilitate the comprehensive and
timely pooling of information?
-How can we achieve regulatory coherence in
specific pieces of legislation
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Opportunities for GGI members
• Euroatlantic info-bridge within GGI (see attached chart)
• Harmonization standards and procedures
– Public procurement
– chemicals,
– automotive,
– pharmaceuticals
– medical devices
• Intellectual property
 to identify a number of specific issues regarding their
divergences.
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Opportunities for GGI member’s
clients
• You as GGI member can provide the latest
and nonpublic information on EU
developments
– Drafts, green papers etc. Will be delivered via
mail upon request
• You as GGI member can transfer your
client’s reflections to the EC
• Your voice in Europe – see next
presentation
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UN-EU-GGI Partnership
• To register at ECOSOC to have access to
conferences, events, forums, decision
makers in the UN family
• To be active at EU as stakeholder, to
participate in open discussions on the
subject
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The progress of negotiations
• 8 July, 2013: 1st round in Washington
• 23-27 September, 2013: working group
meetings
• 7-11 October, 2013: 2nd round
• December, 2013: 3rd round
• January, 2014: Stock-taking exercise with
EU Commissioner Karel de Gucht and US
Trade representative, Michael B. Froman
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Other negotiations due to TTIP
• Japan: resolve to accelerate free trade
negotiations (next meetings: end of
October, beginning of 2014)
• Singapore: Free trade agreement
initialled, to be approved by political
authorities (opportunities in services sector
and PP)
• WTO-Doha: negotiations relaunched
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GGI CONFERENCE October,
2013, ROME
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GGI CONFERENCE October,
2013, ROME
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7. Want more about…?
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THANKS!
Dr. Laszlo Tunyogi
[email protected]
+41 76 278 81 32
+36 30 950 60 11
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr.
GGI CONFERENCE October,
2013, ROME
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