Transcript Appraisal Methodology for Pre-Investment Feasibility Studies under

Appraisal Methodology for
Pre-Investment Feasibility Studies
under the MACC Project
Herman Cesar (ARCADIS, CEEC, IVM)
Pieter van Beukering (IVM, CEEC)
Marlene Attzs (UWI-Trinidad)
David Smith (Smith-Warner Int’l Ltd.)
in consultation with: CPACC, OAS and World Bank
Appraisal Study for MACC pilot projects – ARCADIS; Bahamas 12-14 August 2002
Background of this study
Objective: to develop a methodology for reviewing and
ranking proposals for pre-investment feasibility studies
submitted under Component 2 of MACC by participating
countries
MACC Components (proposed draft):
1. Mainstreaming Adaptation
2. Formulation of measures (demonstration pilots)
and regional agenda for adaptation
3. Expanded knowledge base for assessment of
GCC impacts
4. Cross-regional Dissemination and Replication
5. Project Management
2.7 MUS$
3.5 MUS$
2.1 MUS$
0.3 MUS$
0.7 MUS$
Appraisal Study for MACC pilot projects – ARCADIS; Bahamas 12-14 August 2002
Monetized Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change (in: 109 US$)
Regions
Species Loss of Agricult.
loss hum. life
loss
Sea lev. Extreme
rise weather
Total
Percent
GDP
OECD
52.4
23.7
-1.5
45.8
46.3
166.6
1.2%
Middle
East
0.4
5.2
7.6
2.7
0.0
15.9
4.2%
LA &
Caribb.
0.6
90.6
13.1
5.6
0.1
109.9
13.8%
S.&S.E.
Asia
0.2
101.0
23.9
5.8
3.5
134.3
16.3%
Africa
0.1
22.7
11.4
2.8
0.0
39.1
9.6%
Rest
World
6.3
77.7
-26.3
1.5
0.6
5.8
-
Total
World
60.0
320.9
28.2
64.2
50.5
523.8
2.7%
Source: Tol (1997)
Appraisal Study for MACC pilot projects – ARCADIS; Bahamas 12-14 August 2002
Cost of damage to the five countries most seriously affected
by Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn in 1995 (in: million EC$)
Country
Storm
Damages
(EC$ Mn)
GDP preceeding yr.
(EC$ Mn)
Damage as
percentage of
GDP
Anguilla
245
166.4
147.0%
Antigua/Barbuda
810
1 143.9
71.0%
Montserrat
8.0
147.3
5.4%
Dominica
262
494.1
53.0%
St. Kitts/Nevis
532
505.6
105.2%
St. Martin
1,764
NA
Sources: CDERA (1998), ECLAC/CDCC (1997)
Appraisal Study for MACC pilot projects – ARCADIS; Bahamas 12-14 August 2002
Stage 1. Initial screening (scale: yes, no)
• Addressing specific sectors or sub-sectors
• Reflecting National Communications /
Nat. Adaptation Policy / Issues Paper
IfIf “no”
reject.
” accept.
If “yes”
Stage 2. Checklist
Check list(scale:
(scale:yes,
yes,no)
no)
• Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
• Scenario and sensitivity analysis
• Look at alternatives
• Sustainability (economy, env’t, social
Replicability
• Potential
impact) replicability
• Safeguards (ODs and Ops)
IfIf “no”
reject.
If “yes”” accept.
Stage
Stage 3.
3. Shortlist
Short list (scale: 1 to 10)
1. Financial feasibility
2. Technically sound (design)
4. Effective stakeholder participations
3.
5. Implementation strategy
4.
If “<70”
6. Capacity building & effective use of capacityreject.
5.
7. Operation
6.
Operational
& maintenance
maintenance
8. Political
7.
Contextual
andfeasibility
societal commitment
9. Methodological
8.
Legal & institutional
soundness
arrangements
evaluation
9. Legal & institutional arrangements
10. Compatibility between input/output/impact
If “>=70” accept.
Accept
Accept
Reject
Appraisal Study for MACC pilot projects – ARCADIS; Bahamas 12-14 August 2002
Stage 1. Initial screening (scale: yes, no)
• Addressing specific sectors or sub-sectors
• Reflecting National Communications /
Nat. Adaptation Policy / Issues Paper
MACC’s sectoral & cross-sectoral priorities
Sectoral
Cross-sectoral
Tourism
Water resources
Agriculture & Forestry
Fisheries
Integrated natural res. planning and mgt.
Insurance
Infrastructure
Disaster prevention management
Each proposal should clearly state how the pilot project
intends to address their concerns and how it relates to the
three official documents (National Communications, Issues
Paper, Policy & Action Plan).
Appraisal Study for MACC pilot projects – ARCADIS; Bahamas 12-14 August 2002
Stage 2. Checklist
Check list(scale:
(scale:yes,
yes,no)
no)
• Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
• Scenario and sensitivity analysis
• Look at alternatives
• Sustainability (economy, env’t, social impact)
Replicability
• Potential replicability
• Safeguards (ODs and Ops)
Under ACCC (Component V), an effective EIA process
incorporating climate change considerations is being developed
for all 12 participating countries; This may change the checklist
•ecologically
•socially/culturally
•economically
Appraisal Study for MACC pilot projects – ARCADIS; Bahamas 12-14 August 2002
Stage
Stage 3.
3. Shortlist
Short list (scale: 1 to 10)
1. Financial feasibility
2. Technically sound (design)
4. Effective stakeholder participations
3.
5. Implementation strategy
4.
6. Capacity building & effective use of capacity
5.
7. Operations
6.
Operational&maintenance
maintenance
8. Political
7.
Contextual
andfeasibility
societal commitment
9. Methodological
8.
Legal & institutional
soundness
arrangements
evaluation
9. Legal & institutional arrangements
10. Compatibility between input/output/impact
Each item on shortlist gets points (from 0 to 10)
Project is acceptable with >=70 points
Project with highest score is ranked no. 1, etc.
Appraisal Study for MACC pilot projects – ARCADIS; Bahamas 12-14 August 2002
Appraisal Methodology for Pre-Investment
Feasibility Studies under the MACC Project
Stage 1. Initial screening (scale: yes, no)
• Addressing specific sectors or sub-sectors
• Reflecting National Communications /
Nat. Adaptation Policy / Issues Paper
IfIf “no
“no”
”
reject.
” accept.
If “yes”
Stage 2. Check list (scale: yes, no)
• Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
• Scenario and sensitivity analysis
• Look at alternatives
• Sustainability (economy, env’t, social impact)
Replicability
• Potential replicability
• Safeguards (ODs and Ops)
IfIf “no
“no”
”
reject.
If “yes”” accept.
Stage
Stage 3.
3. Shortlist
Short list (scale: 1 to 10)
1. Financial feasibility
2. Technically sound (design)
4. Effective stakeholder participations
3.
5. Implementation strategy
4.
6. Capacity building & effective use of capacity
5.
7. Operation
6.
Operational
&maintenance
maintenance
8. Political
7.
Contextual
andfeasibility
societal commitment
9. Methodological
8.
Legal & institutional
soundness
arrangements
evaluation
9. Legal & institutional arrangements
10. Compatibility between input/output/impact
If “<70 ”
reject.
If “>=70” accept.
Accept
Accept
Reject
Appraisal Study for MACC pilot projects – ARCADIS; Bahamas 12-14 August 2002