Transcript Document
Flows and Stocks of Fixed Residential Capital: The Croatian Experience By Marija Gojević, Jukka Jalava, Ivan Šutalo, Markku Suur-Kujala Comments by Marcel Timmer, University of Groningen • Aim: Cost-efficient methodology for regional estimates, following SNA/ESA guidelines • Why? Balance sheets, wealth inequality, consumption of fixed capital, Imputed rents (GDP) • Methodology: 2001 stock based on direct observation plus PIM, “partial” hedonic adjustments 2001 Stock estimate • 2001 Census of Population, Housing and Dwellings for quantities of dwellings, including region and characteristics. • NB Importantly, characteristics were not cross-classified! • Prices are problematic. Differ by: – Quality – Year of construction – Regional differences (demographic/ geography) Price adjustments • Possible sources: expert opinions on fictitious bills (PPP) and property market information • This paper starts with market price for sold new dwellings per squared metres, multiplied by “partial” hedonic adjustment factors • Quality adjustments: – Heating (7%), kitchen, toilet bathroom (12%) based on PPP information – Type (house/flat) (1.23) and number of rooms (0.881.08) based on market info • Vintage: value first 5 year no change, geometric decline with 1% per year afterwards • Regional adjustment: source unknown (0.8-1.15) Net value of Net value per dwelling of dwelling perinhabitant inhabitant, Questions • What are characteristics of benchmark dwelling? • Surprising quality adjustments: – houses cheaper than flats? – houses with more rooms cheaper? • Definition of dwellings: no ESA guidelines? • Do we need a regional adjustment? How much of price is due to valuation of land and how much to the dwelling? ESA is unclear? Suggestions • Get hold of cross-tabulations of characteristics as they will not be independent, e.g. older houses will generally have less rooms and lower quality • Apply hedonic adjustments to cross-tabulated quantities in consistent way, – based on expert bills, or – Estimate full hedonic model with property market information?, or – “borrow” adjustment factors of other countries?