Transcript Quarterly household balance sheet

Developments in Australian
balance sheet estimates
- Quarterly household balance sheet
- Measurement issues
- Analytical opportunities
Quarterly household
balance sheet
- assist our understanding of wealth dynamics
- expectations: housing purchase
and rental decisions
- fundamentals: underlying demand for
land and dwellings
- volatility
Measurement issues
- valuation of land and dwellings
- administrative data sources
- contract versus settlement date
Measurement issues
Balance Sheet Value =
Quantity: Census data
x location
x dwelling type
Price : mean sales price
: heterogenous
: illiquid, turnover represents around
1% of dwelling stock
Measurement issues
- Dwellings value PIM
x type
x sector
- Land is a residual
x residential
x commercial
x rural & other
x sector
Analytical opportunities
- interest payable / disposable income
- debt / income
- mortgage debt / residential asset value
- net worth / disposable income
Analytical opportunities
- sensitivity analysis
- holding gains assume mid-period
purchase/appearance
G=(
r +
a)(O + 0.5 * [T + V])
Analytical opportunities
Analytical opportunities
Summary
- volatility and implications for analysis
- improved timeliness
- continue sensitivity analysis on methods
to estimate quarterly holding gains