Transcript Document

Dynamic Dubai
Edinburgh
17th November 2011
Mackay Smith, Regional Director Southern Europe, Middle East and Africa
Scottish Development International
The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries
The Gulf Cooperation
Council Countries (GCC)
consist of Bahrain,
Kuwait, Qatar, UAE,
Saudi Arabia and Oman.
Saudi Arabia, United
Arab Emirates (UAE)
and Qatar designated
high growth emerging
market priorities
GCC GDP
•
GCC GDP Growth and 2012 Projections
GDP
(nominal)
2011
($bn)*
GDP Real
Growth
Rate 2010
(%)**
GDP
(nominal)
2015
estimate
($bn)*
GDP per
Capita**
Public
Debt (%
of
GDP)**
Public Debt
country
comparison to
World (based on
% of GDP)**
Bahrain
$26.5
4.0%
$33.7
$40,300
59.2%
36
Kuwait
$172.8
1.9%
$217.9
$48,900
12.6%
120
Oman
$66
4.2%
$82.6
$25,600
4.4%
130
Qatar
$194.3
16.2%
$234.8
$179,000
10.3%
121
Saudi
Arabia
$578.6
3.7%
$717.9
$24,200
16.7%
114
UAE
$363.8
3.2%
$453.6
$49,600
44.6%
61
$2,471.8
1.3%
$3,050.5
$34,800
76.5%
23
UK
*Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, revised Aug 2011
**Source: CIA World Factbook, 2010 est
Closer look at the Age Profile
•
Population – Age Structure and 2015 Projections (millions)*
Population by age breakdown (%)*
Population
(mn)*
0-14
15-64
65+
2015
Projections
(mn)**
UAE
5.1
20.4
78.7
0.9
6.44
Saudi
Arabia
26.1
29.4
67.6
3
29.59
Qatar
0.85
21.8
76.7
1.5
2.33
Oman
3
31.2
65.7
3.1
3.32
Kuwait
2.6
25.8
72.2
2
4.4
Bahrain
1.2
20.5
77
2.6
1.45
*Source: CIA, World Factbook, 2011
**Source: EIU, 2009
*** actual figure 848,016
UAE Economy and Economic Plans
• Abu Dhabi: 2030 vision: less
reliance on oil, focus on diversification
and creation of a knowledge based
economy.
• Dubai: Economic Development Plan
seeks growth of 11% pa for next 10
years.
• Northern Emirates: Fair less well,
although Sharjah and Rasal Khaimah
are bases for manufacturing.
Recent Bond Issues - Dubai
Examples of oversubscribed Dubai bond issuances
• Dubai Government - Sep 2010
$1.25bn ($500m over 5 years at 6.7%, $750m over 10 years at
7.75%)
received over 370 orders of approximately US$500 billion
• Dubai Electricity and Water Authority - Oct 2010
$2bn (two tranches of $500 million over 6 years at 6.375% and
$1.5 billion over 10 years at 7.375%
6.5 times oversubscribed
• Emaar prices - Jan 2011
$500mn sukuk at profit rate of 8.5% over five and a half years
received $1.7bn in bids
• Emirates - Jun 2011
$500mn bond at 5.125%, five year maturity
closed at $1bn
Key Sectors in Dubai
• Dubai has more limited hydrocarbon reserves, has diversified and
focuses on being the:
• Regional Business Hub (e.g. Aggreko)
• Regional Logistics Hub (over 90% of all imports are reexported)
• Media Hub (Media, Internet City)
• Leisure Hub (hotel occupancy is at 85% for 2011)
• Also opportunities in Education (e.g. Heriot Watt), Financial
Services, Healthcare, premium Food and Drink/Textiles and ICT.
Education Opportunities
• With very young populations, Governments will continue efforts to
create jobs and improve skills, resulting in heavy investment in education
and job creation.
•The region is dependant on western education, with many educational
institutions opening across the region.
Financial Services Opportunities
•The UAE is emerging as one of the key financial hubs in the region, through
intermediation in Dubai and investment in Abu Dhabi.
• The Dubai International Financial Centre aims to be universally recognised
as a hub for Institutional finance and a gateway for capital and investment to
the GCC and MENA Regions as well as becoming a home for Global funds.
•The region has a number of sovereign wealth funds, with the UAE and
Saudi Arabia having the largest funds.
• In addition there are a number of high net worth individuals.
•The Life Insurance segment is underdeveloped and Takaful (Islamic)
Insurance only accounts for a small share of the industry but is seen as the
driver for future growth.
Healthcare/Life Science Opportunities
•With a very young population and increasing western life style, GCC
countries have always spent a high percentage of annual budgets on
Healthcare, to address maternity care and health problems such as
diabetes, which is almost endemic.
•This is manifested in a very active Government building programme of
hospitals, clinics and associated supply of equipment and
consumables.
• Research into the causes of these disease processes is limited, but
developing. Dubai as a well connected regional hub hopes to benefit
from this through Healthcare Tourism.
Food & Drink Opportunities
•Water is scarce in the GCC, which means that domestic agricultural
production is costly.
•As a result GCC spending on Food Imports will more than double from
$24 Billion in 2008 to $49 Billion by 2020.
•The emergence of a five star tourism industry in the UAE and the
presence of many expats has created a demand for high end produce.
ICT Opportunities
•ICT is integral to enterprise and the state through e-government, elearning, and m-banking.
•The large youth population is driving growth of new gadgets and
mobile broadband, with smart phones in the ascendancy.
•The Telecom companies in the Middle East are vey powerful, involved
in all stages from Infrastructure deployment to end-user entertainment,
with sights set on being Global players.
•A strong growth in Arabic content is anticipated as 3G mobile services
develop.
Some Issues to be Aware of…
• 51% ownership when in domestic UAE
• Local Partner – Choose wisely with legal advice
• Cost of Living – Dubai is ranked 55th most expensive city in the
world – equivalent to Los Angeles
SDI Support for Middle East
• Services in Scotland
• International Strategy Workshop
• Export Assessment and Preparing to Export programme
• Market Visits
• Setting up Operations
• Office in Dubai
• General advice and Contacts
• Market Research
• Organise Meetings (can accompany where appropriate)
• Facilitate contact with GlobalScots in market
A Cross section of Companies our GCC Globalscots work in
PROGRAMME OF KEY EVENTS FOR 2011-12
• Creative Industries - SDI mission to GITEX Dubai 9-13 Oct 2011
• Textile companies attending Index 22-25 Oct 2011
• Scottish Week from the 30th Oct - 4th Nov (included the Law Society of
Scotland mission and an SDI Energy Mission.
• Dubai Air show 13th -17th Nov, 3 Scottish companies attending
• Life Sciences - The International Diabetes Federation congress 4-8 December
• World Future Energy Summit – Abu Dhabi Jan 2011
• Life Sciences - SDI mission to attend Arab Health 23-26th Jan 2012
• Food & Drink - SDI mission to attend Gulf Foods in Dubai from 19th – 22nd
Feb 2012.
Dubai has Grown Rapidly and Continues to do so
Sheikh Zayed Rd 1990 and again in 2003
THANK YOU
Colin Crabbe
Regional Manager Middle East
Scottish Development International
c/o The British Embassy
Al Seef Rd
PO Box 65
Dubai
Mobile no; 0097150 708 5938
[email protected]