Transcript Election in Ethiopia

Growth and Transformation
Plan in Ethiopia
Adam M. Zerihun
Presented on the open seminar on Growth and Transformation
Plan in Ethiopia, the Norwegian development fund
November 24, 2011, Oslo, Norway
IMF and World Bank criticize Ethiopia's economic plan
November 4th 2011
• Overly ambitious and a threat to macroeconomic
stability
• The GTP is misguided, impossible to finance and
severely damaging the economy
• Ambitious public investment and growth targets
• Insufficient capacity to execute plans and inadequate
funding for proposed investments
• Government's dependency on the National Bank of
Ethiopia - pushed the inflation rate to over 40%
Despite soaring inflation and many people suffering
from lower purchasing power (especially the poor), the
government has already publicly dismissed the claims
The prevailing economic situation
• Few, ruling party affiliated (political or family
hood and friendship) are multi-millionaires
• Millions are starving- although denying reports of
the Ethiopian regime – image!
• 3 meals a day is becoming a luxury in the
country
• Basic food items like, bread, cooking oil and
sugar are supplied in ration
• 40% inflation
Live alone the poor, the middle class can not
afford to supply his family with enough food in
the current Ethiopia
• Leasing fertile farmland
• Flower and khat cultivation is prioritized
• Oxen is still used for ploughing and even owning
an oxen is not possible for the majority farmer
• Standard of living is deteriorating from time to
time
Rampant and sophisticated corruption
Constraining to GTP
• According to the world bank half of the national
economy (excluding land telecommunication
and much of banking) is accounted for by
companies held by TPLF affiliated business
group EFFORT *Current head- Azeb Mesfin, wife of
Zenawi
– EFFORT is the major partner/ beneficiary of foreign
assistance, including from the Norwegian institutions
Rampant and sophisticated corruption
–
–
–
–
Constraining to GTP
Guna trading House PLC – become
• the sole exporter of coffee
• significant exporter of sesame seeds
• Other import businesses (including Fertilizers)
TPLF-affiliated construction companies - win easily
contracts of the govm’t
Arms procurement- favourite area of Meles and his
circle
Al-Amoudi- EPRDF affiliated Ethio-Saudi billionaire
• Gold (second biggest export commodity) export
and major mining is awarded to Mohammed
 8.4 billion USD vanished into the black
hole- offshore banking (partly may be to payments
to TPLF informants and Lobbyists in the diaspora)
GTP constraining political
atmosphere
One party system
• 2010 election- 99.6% in favour of EPRDF
– Controlled 545/547 parliamentary seats
• Draconian laws safeguard the power monopoly
through terrorizing the opposition, journalists
and the public
• The media law
• The NGO law
• Anti-terror law
GTP constraining political
atmosphere
• Human rights violations
– Arrest and subsequent violations of basic
human rights
– Brutal murders of political candidates
– Open torture and ill-treatment of political
prisoners
– Intensive human rights violations in the
country, particularly in the Ogaden region and
Oromia areas
GTP constraining political atmosphere
• Complete capture of state institutions
Military, security, major economic sectors (Banking,….)
• Establishment of a fear society
– Countless journalists, editors, judges, academicians,
human rights activists fled the country or are kept
behind bars
– Chinese spy technology to bug phone & internet
communications and jamming free media
• 3.4 million local officers for 80 mill people-1 for 12
families
• Scope of peaceful political participation
– Opposition parties are systematically persecuted and
pressurized to flee
– Political assembly and demonstration are banned
Transparency and information flow
A missing tool for development
• State monopoly on telecommunication and
media
– 2% mobile phone distribution – Africa’s
average 30%
– Jamming independent media including, VOA,
ESAT and various internet websites
Is there real economic devm’t in Ethiopia?
• Food crises/Famine
– Millions are starving, but denying reports from the govm’t
• Meles and Ethiopia experiment objects - MDG?
– Meles hailed as member of a ’new breed’ of post–cold
war African leader and become aid darling
– Received more than to 35 billion USD in development
aid since 1991
– Donors common Interest--- big push approach
– Income for being Anti-terror ally– Promotion by the west??, Who disregard his own
experiment?
– ‘Aid dependent regime’s do not listen to their own
citizens, but to donors, Aid is destructing African
countries’ Moyo
– China’s aggressive economic dominance in
developing countries, like Ethiopia- contributory to the
‘new thinking’ within donor countries?
Conclusion
• In a country where
– political and economical power is
monopolized by few
– only ruling party affiliated are actors and
believed to be benefficiaries
– the majority is excluded and do not participate
 Growth and Transformation plans is
unrealistic in Ethiopia with the current attitude
of the Meles regime
NGDP
PC
(3)/(5)
RGDP
PC
(6)/(8
RGDP
PC
Growt
h
Rate
(%)
Consu
mer
Price
Index*
*(CPI)
% Change
in CPI
(Infl.
Rate)
12,309 73
169
165
--
02
--
2006 131,672 8.39
15,694 75
209
187
13
11
383
2007 171,834 8.93
19,242 77
250
221
18
13
12
2008 245,973 9.67
25,437 78
324
277
25
17
32
2009 353,455 12.39 28,527 85
335
233
-8.4
44
158
Year
2005
NGDP*
Birr
(million
s)
USD
Exch.
Rates*
106,473
8.65
NGDP
USD
(million
s)
(1)/(2)
Popl.*
**(mill
ion)
*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ethiopia
** //www.indexmundi.com/ethiopia/inflation_rate_%28consumer_prices%29.html
*** http://www.airninja.com/worldfacts/countries/Ethiopia/population.htm
*** https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/et.html
Conclusion
• Mr Zenawi is a multi-faced Africa’s worst
dictator
– fooling donors and threatening the west – shift
his companionship to China
• Donors should stop playing a double
standard
• Ethiopians will be forced to fight by all
means for freedom => regional instability?
• Increased fear for Rwanda’s blood shed
repeat in Ethiopia- Genocide watch