Transcript Venezuela and Alba

The politics of Venezuela
Anastasios Valvis
Ph.D. Candidate
University of Peloponnese
ELIAMEP Research Fellow
The Political System in Venezuela
Before Chavez
• Until the 80s Venezuela was considered as an
example of democracy and stability in LA.
• A two party system (AD & COPEI)
• But this was only in the surface.
• The collapse of the national currency
following the collapse of oil prices at the late
80s revealed the reality.
The Political System in Venezuela
Before Chavez
• Economic problems led to extreme
urbanization with no result.
• The elites paid more attention to their classes
and supporters resulting to massive abstain of
the lower class from the elections.
• Carlos Perez became president in 1989 and the
people hoped for a second successful term.
The Political System in Venezuela
Before Chavez
• Under Perez presidency vast efforts were made
for economic improvement.
• Indeed economic indicators such as GDP and
inflation have been improved.
• But, the real income of the majority further
declined and the unemployment raised.
• The outcome was the “Caracazo”
Chavez at the Forefront: A short
historical Portrait
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Born in 1954
A former military who has reached the rank of lieutenant colonel.
He studied political science but he did not finish his studies in Caracas.
Participant of the 1992 failed coup d'état and imprisoned for two years.
Entered into the official political scene as a third party candidate and won
the 1998 elections with 56% under a unique civic-military alliance.
Survived a coup in April 2002.
Won the referendum of 2004 organized by his political opponents.
Re-elected president in 2006 with 63%.
Attempted to alter the constitution to become re-electable for life but failed
in 2007.
Won the 2009 referendum abolishing term limits for the President
Re-elected in 2012.
The Chavez phenomenon: an oversized personality –
populist, dictator or true democrat?
Criticism
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A “Tropical Mussolini”
A threat to LA Democracy
A brand of narcissistic Leninism
Verbally and ideologically
inclined to political violence.
Praise
• A harbinger of hope, an
inspiration for Latin America’s
poor, and a member of the “axis
of hope.”
• Charismatic, committed,
dynamic, intemperate, impulsive.
Critique
• Brought a new constitution giving to the President extreme
powers.
• Replaced the Supreme Court and liquidated the judicial
council.
• Controlled the Media (Human Right Watch)
• Anti-american rhetoric but the most important exporter of oil
to the USA. 1999-2011 nearly $350 billion.
• Total debt has more than doubled since 2008.
• Annual fiscal deficit at nearly 20 percent of GDP (Barklays,
07/2012).
Critique
• Immense security deficit:
Venezuela has the highest homicide rate in South America, and represents
the most dramatic deterioration of urban violence in South America.
According to the UN, Venezuela’s murder rate is exceeded only by that of
Honduras and El Salvador, two countries ravaged by gang violence and
organized crime. Kidnappings for ransom have soared, and Caracas is now
considered one of the most dangerous cities in the world. In 2011, 93
percent of homicides in the Caracas metropolitan area were of young men
and teenagers between the ages of 15 and 24 (Wilson Center).
Chavez vs Civil Society and Lobbies
• Clash with the Catholic church right after he
came into power in 1999.
• Clash with the CTV, the biggest labor
organization.
• Clash with the Media.
The positive aspects
• Article 62 of the Constitution: creates a body of
political power for the people through which they are
provided with an authorization to participate in the
creation, execution and control of public enterprise.
• Article 71: if an elected government does not
perform, it can be abolished by popular referendum
which in order to be called requires the signature of
only 10% of the eligible voters.
Venezuela the successor of Bolivarianism
• Venezuela has dramatically changed under Chavez
administration.
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Social spending increased by 60.6%, reaching a total of $772 billion.
Venezuela in now the country in the region with the lowest inequality level (GINI
indicator, OECD) having reduced inequality by 54%, poverty by 44%. In particular,
poverty has been reduced from 70,8% (1996) to 21% (2010).
In education the government is giving more than 6% of GDP.
UNESCO has recognized that illiteracy has been further eliminated.
Venezuela is the 3rd country in the region whose population reads the most.
Venezuela is now tied with Finland as the 5th country with the happiest population
in the world.
Economic Performance
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The Venezuelan economy has grown 47,4% in ten years, that is 4,3% per annum.
Unemployment rate of 8%, 45,5% government (public) debt as a percentage of
GDP. GDP per capita is $ 13,070. (CIA World Factbook).
Venezuela’s stock exchange is by far the best – performing stock market in the
world, and Venezuela’s bonds are some of the best performers in emerging
markets (Wall Street Journal)
The UN Human Development Index situates Venezuela in place 61 out of 176
countries having increased 7 places in 10 years.
Critique
Chavez as a leader of anti-West and antiAmericanism
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Chávez is not content to govern within the confines of a single
nation. Former Brazilian president Henrique Cardoso observed that
Chávez is driven by a deep sense of ideological fervor and
missionary zeal.
In Chávez’s mind, Latin America is a prisoner held in subjugation by
external powers and their internal allies and agents who write the
economic rules and dispense political power.
Chavez’s 3D Strategy
• The national level: The
Bolivarian Republic of
Venezuela
• The Regional Level: LA
and Caribbean level:
Unity
• The Global level
Venezuela in regional blocs
• UNASUR
• ALBA (Founding member)
• MERCOSUR
The Bolivarian Alternative for
the Americas (ALBA): The “Dawn” for a 21st
Century Socialism
• Chavez and Castro initiative in 2004.
• The concept was the creation of an alternative for profit-driven and
allegedly unregulated free trade and a bulwark against the U.S. – led
FTAA.
• Ideologically ALBA-TCP is centered around the idea of endogenous
development replacing the competitive/comparative advantage with the
cooperative advantage.
• During the 2008 ALBA summit in Caracas Chavez proposed creating a
solidarity – based commercial exchange system with a single monetary
zone at the centre. The sucre, a joint currency was to be established within
two to three years.
Some distinguishing features of ALBA
• Guiding principles
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Complementarity
Solidarity
Cooperation
respect for sovereignty.
• Poverty reduction
• Financial cooperation
• People-to-people social cooperation
Differences with other regional agreements
• It approaches issues of education, health and culture.
• It promotes cooperation in various fields such as in
communication, transportation and infrastructure.
• Departs from the model of Open regionalism or Outward
Integration by promoting complementarities in production
articulated around regional investment of mixed state
enterprises (GNEs)
Thank you for your attention