Transcript The Maduro Period

THE MADURO PERIOD
(SO FAR)
BACKGROUND
 Born 1962, age 52
 Spent time in Cuba, pro-Castro
 Pro-Chávez legislator
 Foreign minister 2006-2013 ; cultivated close
relations with Libya, Zimbabwe, Iran
 Wife Cilia Flores president of National Assembly
(2006-2011), attorney-general (2012-2013)
 Vice-president 2012
 Candidate of Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela
(PSUV) in special election of April 2014; defeated
Henrique Capriles by >51-49%
HARD-LINE POLITICS
 October 2013: rule by decree
 To fight corruption
 And economic war
 Maintain security via “Safe Homeland” program
 Crackdown on demonstrations by youth, early 2014
 Expels CNN
 Class divide within society
 Imprisonment of Leopoldo López
 Expels three U.S. diplomats, calls Marco Rubio “el
loco de los locos”
 NB: USA reluctant to intervene or apply sanctions
ECONOMIC WOES 2014
 Oil = 95% Venezuela exports
 Inflation 64%
 GDP down by 7%
 Default on loans, or
 Curtail oil giveaways in Caribbean etc.
 Approval rating down from 45-50% to 22%
A DIPLOMATIC TRIUMPH?
 October 2014 Venezuela (unopposed) obtains
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temporary seat on UN Security Council with support
from 181 of General Assembly’s 193 voting members
Which means that María Gabriela Chávez sits on the
Council
Only muted opposition from United States
Bipartisan group of U.S. Senators urged major
diplomatic effort in light of (a) Venezuela’s support
or Russia in Crimea and (b) protection of Bashar-alAssad from UN reprobation
Revenge for 2006?
POLITICAL SCENARIOS
 Maduro completes six-year term, wins re-election
 Maduro completes term, Diosdado Cabello (or some
other chavista) wins next election
 Maduro does not complete term, viced president (or
some other chavista) takes over
 Maduro is overthrown by a dissident faction of the
military… perhaps in response to popular
demonstrations of disapproval
 Note: 66% of public believe Maduro should not
finish term, including many government supporters
WHO KNOWS?