Transcript THE UNITED STATES AND ASIA

US-ASIAN RELATIONS
READINGS:
COX AND STOKES CH 14, PACKARD,
HEGINBOTHAM ET AL, ECONOMY AND
SEGAL, PEI, CARTER CH 12
Guiding Questions
 What challenges did Asian politics
present to US foreign policy in the post
WW2 era?
 What is the state of US-Japanese
foreign relations?
 What is the state of US-Chinese foreign
relations?
Patterns in US-Asian Foreign Policy
 Cox 2008
 US international postwar goals were three-fold:
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1) restore conditions necessary for a strong international economy
2) limit/constrain communism
3) incorporate defeated states; balance those opposed to US
 East Asian political realities complicated these tasks
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1) European colonialism
2) Japanese aggression
3) Economic collapse
4) Chinese revolution
5) US military interventions
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But a VERY unstable region has become relatively stable
 US played a role in this stability
US-Japanese Relations
 Cox 2008
 Post WW2 relations governed by a series of
“understandings”
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1) Japanese subordination to US in exchange for American security
guarantees
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2) Japanese government would focus on improving economic
resources
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Government agrees to limit military spending and disavows any future
attempt to get WMD’s
Access to US markets
3) Japanese policy would never run counter to US policy within the
region
 Despite some “bumps” relationship continues without
much change
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Election of the DPJ appeared to alter the dynamic
Patterns in Japanese Foreign Policy
STRUCTURAL FACTORS
 Power
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End of Cold War increased uncertainty
in a chaotic region
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Japanese military forces (SDF)
constrained
 Interdependence
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Economic relationship with Asian
countries and the US
Military dependence on the US
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Can cause friction
 Ideas
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Pacifism, anti-militarism
Trade military autonomy for economic
growth
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Yoshida Doctrine
POLITICAL FACTORS
 LDP dominance eclipsed in
last election
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LDP reflexive support for US
alliance weakened under DPJ
 Strong role for bureaucracy
in policymaking (MITI)
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Lack of transparency under
attack by DPJ government
 Public opinion can strain
alliance appeals
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Use of SDF outside of Japan
Okinawa and Futenma
Current State of US-Japanese Relations
 Packard 2010
 Election of the DPJ creates questions about the “Yoshida Doctrine”
 Long term frustrations (US forces on Okinawa, unequal partnership, etc.) have
come to the forefront
 US frustrations regarding Japanese unwillingness to assist in conflict further
complicates the relationship
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The left wing has always been more comfortable raising these issues
 Relationship is still valuable: Japan gets economic gains while the
US gets access to Asian bases
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Rising China also motivates continued cooperation between US and Japan
 DPJ government wants the US to reduce its “footprint”
 Debates and delays over Futenma/Okinawa creates unnecessary complications
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US must work with Tokyo to alleviate these concerns
Japan should work with the US to reduce concerns about free riding
Current State of U.S.-Japanese Relations
 Heginbotham et al. 2011
 Tsunami provided opportunities for the US and Japan to appear
united
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But ignores that Japanese politics is undergoing significant change
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DPJ vs. LDP
Decline of the MITI
Economic stagnation
 At a time of political transformation, maintaining the relationship
can be difficult
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“Host nation support” is becoming more difficult for Japanese governments to
justify
 Fear of Chinese aggression can promote unity
 The US can work with the DPJ
 Use the SDF as a global disaster relief force
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That said, US should remain flexible: keep options open in South Korea, Australia,
etc.
Transition to Chinese Hegemony?
 Militarily, the US far outspends its rivals
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Economically, some contend that the “rise of the rest” threatens US
hegemony
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Biggest focus: China
 Inevitable:
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Power measured by GDP
China is No. 2.
 China will pass the United States in coming decades.
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 Questionable:
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GDP is a flawed measure?
Does not predict the impact of China's immense poverty problem.
 China's GDP per capita is nowhere close to that of the U.S.
 US far outspends the Chinese on military resources.
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Power Transition Theory
 The rise of a new hegemon associated with instability
 Power transition theory often cited
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Example: Austria-Hungary and WW1
 A.F.K. Organski 1968
 Predicted the world leadership position would pass from U.S.
to China.
 Predicted that once China did catch the United States in terms
of power, there would likely be conflict, and possibly war.
 This was the beginning of power transition theory:
 When the most powerful state is challenged by some secondranked state, conflict is likely.
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Counterargument: History does not always bear this out: UK/US
Taiwan: Potential Powder Keg
 Ray 2008
 Island to which the defeated nationalists fled in
1949.
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China considers Taiwan a rogue province.
 Could spark tension between the US and China.
 United States agrees that there is only one China.
 But sells military hardware to Taiwan.
 And has made promises to defend Taiwan.
 Some movement in Taiwan toward independence.
 China would oppose with force. Would the U.S. defend?
Chinese Foreign Policy Goals
STRUCTURAL FACTORS
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Power
 Size and location make it a player
 Triangulation throughout the Cold War.
 Resurgence of triangulation?
Interdependence
 Growing involvement in international
institutions.
 Anger at encroachments on Chinese
sovereignty.
 US-Chinese economic interdependence
critical for modernization
Ideas
 Separate economics from domestic
politics/human rights.
 Avenge “century of humiliation” and
legacy of Western imperialism.
 Maintain a unified Chinese territory (i.e.
hold Tibet, regain Taiwan, etc.)
POLITICAL FACTORS
 Communist party leaders
make key decisions.
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“Vertical and dual rule” by the
Communist party.
Divisions between the “reds” and
the “experts”
 Role for bureaucrats to shape
“minor” policies.
 Public opinion: less repressed
then previously the case.
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Domestic political powder keg:
Chinese nationalism can be tough
for politicians to tame.
US-Chinese Preferences
 US-Chinese cooperation is
seen as critical to global
economics, environmental
action, terror, etc.
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Economic interdependence
seen as critical basis for
cooperation
 Economy and Segal 2009
 US and China see economics
AND politics very differently.
 Privileging a G-2 relationship
overlooks these fundamental
differences.
 US should engage China; but
should do so in tandem with
America’s traditional allies.
Conclusions: Hyping American Decline and Asia’s Rise?
 Pei 2009
 1) Power is shifting towards Asia
Not quite; The rise of China would result in multipolarity at most.
 China does not spend anything near as much on military resources as the
US.
 2) Asian rise is unstoppable
 China is facing a major demographic crunch; population is aging.
 Corruption coupled with a focus on export led growth will hurt in the long
run.
 3) Asian capitalism is more ‘dynamic’ than Western capitalism
 Asian growth is predicated on initial weakness.
 Government control stifles innovation; education does not emphasize
independent thinking.
 Lack of a social safety net forces savings.
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Conclusions: Hyping Asia’s Rise?
 Pei 2009
 4) China will dominate Asia
China’s rise will prompt counterbalancing by Russia,
Japan, and India.
 China has internal tensions it has to contend with.
 5) America is losing influence in Asia
 US democracy has shown an ability for self correction
 Many Asian countries believe that the US can be a force
for good in balancing Beijing.
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Next Unit
 If You’re Interested….
 Pomeranz. The Great Divergence
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Europe/China and the Industrial Revolution
Sanger. The Inheritance
Shirk. China: Fragile Superpower
 Next Unit: Theme: US/Russian Relations
 Cox and Stokes CH 13
Beasley CH 5
 Simes (Foreign Affairs-November/December 2007)
 King (Foreign Affairs-November/December 2008)
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