Transcript World Water Scenarios 2010

World Water Scenarios
2012 – 2035
William J Cosgrove & Gilberto Gallopin
Chicago 17 July 2009
Overview
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World Water Vision Scenarios 2000-2025
Why new scenarios?
Proposed new scenarios
Questions, suggestions and expressions
of interest in participating
World Water Scenarios 2000-2025
How?
 Scenario Development Panel
 Drivers: demographics; economic;
technological; social; governance; environmental
 Focus Groups on Drivers
- energy
- information and communications
- biotechnology
- institutions, society and economy
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Models
core elements in the Vision
approach
• participatory approach with extensive consultation: open
and transparent process; stakeholders stimulated to
contribute to the Vision and make it their own.
• “out-of-the-box” thinking: emphasis on getting people to
think beyond the boundaries of their normal frame of
reference – stimulated through qualitative global
scenarios to kick off consultations.
• global analysis to assure integration and co-ordination:
scenarios and subsequent simulation modeling to
provide a coherent basis for the global vision.
• Emphasis on communication: information available not
just for the project team but for many outside it through
as many channels as possible.
Vision
Analytical
Framework
Three Global
Vision Scenarios
(2nd generation)
Shiklomanov:
1995 ref. data
water resources
and use
SEI: Polestar:
Population and GDP
for 18 regions
Improved Global
Vision Scenarios
Kassel: WaterGAP:
2025 water and
use projected for
1162 river basins
IWMI: PODIUM:
Irrigated areas &
irr. efficiencies
SEI: WEAP:
basin level
case studies
IFPRI: IMPACT:
food demand,
supply and trade
Resulting in
• Increasing the consistency and “feasibility
check” on the scenarios
• Providing higher credibility through the
intersection of different independent
approaches
• Providing quantitative estimates of some
thresholds and requirements
Anatomy of scenarios
 Current situation
 Critical dimensions
 Driving forces
Strategic invariants
(predetermined elements)
 Critical uncertainties
 Plots (logics of the scenarios)
 Image of the future
Outcomes:
 Scenarios:
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- Business-as-Usual
- Technology, Economics
and Private Sector
- Values and Lifestyles
World Water Vision (backcast)
Why new scenarios?
Real Time Delphi Exercise November 2007
 Analyses based on the results of the IPCC scenarios will be
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useful in WWDR3.
Further scenario development based on the IPCC scenarios
seems warranted.
New scenarios should not be started from scratch but
include new drivers that have now become apparent.
Revisions to the World Water Vision scenarios should be
based on new information available.
A (Real Time?) Delphi process may be useful in developing
these new scenarios, but
Scientific and empirical observations should be used as
the starting point.
Drivers in WWDR3:
 Demographic, economic
and social
 Technological
 Policies, laws and
finance
 Climate change
Possible futures
Opening the
“water box”
Survey of 200 Decision-Makers May 2009
Over the past decade there has been no comprehensive
review of external forces(drivers) acting on the water
sector and their interaction in possible futures . Do you
agree that scenarios covering this should be included in
WWDR4?”
Strongly Agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Encouraged, often with restrictions, cautions regarding
resources required & avoiding duplication
Proposed new scenarios
Output: a set of qualitative scenarios characterized by
narratives and causal diagrams unfolding in time, combined,
for those aspects amenable to mathematical formalization,
with quantitative scenarios characterized by simulation models.
Approach: a continuous iteration between the building of the
qualitative scenarios and the simulation models, engaging
experts and stakeholders in the scenario-building exercise
and encouraging communication and dialogue between
these different actors.
Global Scenarios
In-depth discussion of the existing scenarios,
followed by the development of qualitative
“storylines” by a group of stakeholders and experts:
 understandable and transparent basis for
understanding scenario assumptions
 attractive method for communicating the substance
of the scenarios to non-technical people
 distill the combined views of the stakeholders and
experts
Global Scenarios
In parallel, modelers produce quantitative
scenarios which provide numerical data,
and make possible a consistency check
of the storylines.
Scenarios at national and sub-national
scales
Scenario construction process and scenario findings more
directly connected to concrete actors and decision-makers.
Global scenarios give general direction and provide
perspective and a set of functional constraints for the
national and sub-national scenarios.
More local scenarios provide flesh and specificity to
exercise and demonstrate the diversity of situations
involved in water issues.
Products:
 set of qualitative and quantitative scenarios and
their documentation;
 document discussing the main strategic
implications of the global scenarios, the
identified critical nodes for action, and the
insights obtained from the scenario exercise;
 set of local water scenarios;
 tool-box for local scenario-building; and
 improvement in the scenario-building capacity of
local groups.
Your questions?
Suggestions re the approach?
Are you interested in participating
- at the global level?
- at the local level?
Thank you!