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Conversion of Recommendations into Costing Scenarios Sinta Satriana Bangkok, 17 Oct 2012 ABND process 1. What is the Social Security Situation? 2. How far are we from the achievement of the SPF? -> gaps, issues 4. How much would it cost today and in the future? 6. How to ensure that the recommendations are endorsed and listen to? 3. What should be done to complete the floor? 5. Can the Government afford it? Do we need to increase the fiscal space? 7. How to advocate for the SPF as a whole or specific recommendations? (ROR…) Outline • Short review of the assessment matrix • Which recommendation do we cost? with examples from Indonesia • Translating the “costable” recommendation into costing scenarios • Assumptions of the Scenarios Gaps SPF Gov’t Existing Policy Implementa- Recommenda- Scenarios Objectives Strategy Provisions Gaps tion Issues tions for costing Health ... Children ... Working Age ... Elderly, Disability ... Gaps SPF Gov’t Existing Policy Implementa Recommenda- Scenarios Objectives Strategy Provisions Gaps -tion Issues tions for costing Health ... Children ... Working Age ... Elderly, Disability ... Or, in the case of Indonesia… Gaps Recommendations Policy ImplemenScenarios SPF Gov’t Existing Objectives Strategy Provisions Gaps tation Issues for costing Per General Health ... Children ... Working Age ... Elderly, Disabilit y ... 1. 2. 3. ... guarantee 1. 2. ... 1. 2. ... 1. 2. ... 1. 2. ... Outline • Short review of the assessment matrix • Which recommendation do we cost? with examples from Indonesia • Translating the “costable” recommendation into costing scenarios • Assumptions of the Scenarios Costing the “Costable” Recommendations Recommendation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ... Scenarios for costing 1. 2. 3. ... Which ones to cost? • Is it about money? • Is data available? • Can assumptions be made for the scenarios? • Or do you need further studies? Two types of recommendations Recommendations = Increase benefits or population covered, introduce new SPF benefits We can use the RAP Protocol LABOUR MARKET MODEL GENERAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS MODEL MACROECONOMIC MODEL BENEFITS COSTING EXERCISE SUMMARY AND RESULTS DEMOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK Qualitative recommendations on the management of existing schemes, review targeting & registration mechanisms, introduce a social insurance scheme (unemployment insurance, pension system), conduct a tax reform, improve the quality of health or education … We need to conduct complementary studies Example 1: Health Recommendations: 1. Development of specific and clear benefits package for the new national health insurance program √ √ 2. Extension of non-contributory health insurance (currently for the poor) to the whole informal economy 3. Inclusion of treatment and prevention of Mother-toChild Transmission of HIV and Syphilis 4. Improvement of database and targeting method of health insurance program for the poor Example 2: Children Recommendations: 1. Expand CCT program to more areas and more recipient households 2. Explore the merging of CCT and scholarship program 3. Explore and calculate the cost of a universal child benefit program 4. Improve management efficiency of Raskin Food Program √ √ Example 3: Working age Recommendations: 1. Conduct a feasibility study for unemployment insurance scheme and linkages with employment services. 2. Develop a Public Employment Program linked with skills development for workers in the informal economy √ Elderly and People with Disability 1. Extension non-contributory minimum pension scheme for the elderly and people with severe disabilities. √ 2. Feasibility study of a defined benefit contributory pension scheme for formal sector workers 3. Creation of sound database of disabled people to facilitate targeting Outline • Short review of the assessment matrix • Which recommendation do we cost? with examples from Indonesia • Translating the “costable” recommendation into costing scenarios • Assumptions of the Scenarios Example: Children Recommendation 1: Expand CCT program Scenarios: 1. 2. CCT to all poor households (not only very poor households) in all provinces at current level of benefits CCT to all poor households + increased benefit for children from 13 to 15 years Recommendation 3: Explore and calculate the cost of a universal child benefit program Scenarios: 1. Child benefit for all children at certain benefit level Example: Working Age Recommendation 1: Public Employment Program linked with skills development for workers in the informal economy Scenario: 1. Establishment of a public works guarantee linked with vocational training: 30 days of work per person per year + 10 days of training every five years Example: Elderly & People with Disability Recommendation 1: Extension of non-contributory minimum pension for the elderly and people with severe disabilities. Scenarios: 1. 2. 3. 4. Extension of a non-contributory pension for all severely disabled persons. Extension of a non-contributory pension for all the vulnerable elderly (without family support). Establishment of a non-contributory universal pension for 55 years and older Establishment of a non-contributory universal pension for 65 years and older “Low” = scenario 1 + scenario 2 “High”= scenario 1 + scenario 3 Outline • Short review of the assessment matrix • Which recommendation do we cost? with examples from Indonesia • Translating the “costable” recommendation into costing scenarios • Assumptions of the Scenarios Assumptions for the Scenarios Example: Old age & Disability Benefits Scenario 1: Extension of a non-contributory pension for all severely disabled persons. Assumptions: 1. Benefit amount: IDR 300,000/month (at the level of the current JSPACA benefit) and increases with inflation Slightly above the average poverty line 2. The estimated number of severely disabled people based on available data, and will increase at the same rate as the general population growth. Estimate of MoSA, no survey data 3. Coverage will progressively grow from 11.8 % (current coverage) to 100% in 2020 4. The administrative costs are 15 percent Based on experience of similarly targeted programs Assumptions for the Scenarios Example: Old age & Disability Benefits Scenario 1: Establishment of a noncontributory universal pension for 65 + Assumptions: 1. 2. 3. Number of beneficiaries: based on population projection Take up rate: 10% per year Amount of benefit: At the level of average poverty line (IDR 226,335 /month in 2011) assumed to increase with inflation. 4. Administrative costs are 5 percent non-targeted. Questions?