Transcript Challenges for the Bulgarian rail sector and NRIC

Track Access Charges for the Bulgarian Railways – Technical Assistance
Market demand
Transport demand, period 2000 – 2013
 Passenger demand dropped down by almost 5% average per year
 Freight demand decreased by 3% a year
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
External factors influencing passenger demand
 Number of population: decreasing by 0.7% per
year
 Population age: 18.5% over 65 years, 13.2 %
below 15 year
 Territorial distribution: 64% in South Bulgaria;
49.5% in South central and South-western
region
 Level of incomes: 48% of EU average
 Level of car ownership: 76% of EU average
Seminar 21/01/2015 Railway infrastructure – Key to achieve sustainable transport
External factors influencing freight demand
 Structure of the national economy:
63.4% of GVA from services, 31.3%
from industry
 Collapse of big clients (Kremikovtsi)
 SME generate over 59% of the GVA
 Shift from large volumes of lowprice bulk materials to smallervolume high-value general cargoes
 60% of international trade is
to/from countries served by sea
and IWW
Seminar 21/01/2015 Railway infrastructure – Key to achieve sustainable transport
Result for nowadays demand by rail
 20% of the lines serve 80% of the demand
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
Future perspectives for passenger demand
 Negative demographic trends will persist
 Incomes and car ownership are will keep
growing
 Value of time will grow in parallel to GDP pc
 Target group for socially oriented services will
shrink
 Higher demand for suburban services
 Lower demand for long distance services and
regional services
 Forecasted growth in number of passengers:
 2020: 3.7% compared to 2013
 2030: 9.2% compared to 2013
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
Passenger demand and supply 2030/2013
Assumed additional supply in train-km: 8-9%
Assumed new services:
 Plovdiv – Panagyurishte
 Plovdiv – Hisarya
 Plovdiv – Karlovo
 Stara Zagora – Chirpan
 Stara Zagora – Nova Zagora
 Pleven – Cherkvitsa route
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
Future perspectives for freight demand
 Domestic demand:
 Agriculture will keep decreasing
 Services are expected to grow
 Industry share anticipated to remain stable: highest growth is expected for ferrous and non-ferrous
metal industries, followed by engineering, and chemical industries
 Overall 20% growth 2030/2013
 Good news: better perspectives for 2030 international demand exist:
 30% overall growth of demand
 60% more import and export
 65% more transit
 However, alternative routes and transport modes will compete for this demand!
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
Freight demand and supply
Estimated additional supply:
22% more train-km in 2020 in comparison to 2013
57% more train-km in 2030 in comparison to 2013
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
Conclusions
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges