Transcript ENMAK scenario - Energiatalgud

ENMAK 2020 scenario
Consumption Part
Work plan
1. Implementing the Residential, Tertiary and Industry consumption
(2010+2020) data from the expert groups into the STREAM model.
(completed)
2. Calculating the costs and savings for implementing the new
technologies into the different sectors. This is done by
implementing all technologies with more accurate investment and
O&M costs. (ongoing)
The data is from the Danish Energy Agency:
http://www.ens.dk/Documents/Netboghandel%20%20publikationer/2012/Technology_data_for_individual_heating_plants_and%20energy_transport.pdf
3. Including the transport sector. Implementing the data for the
Transport sector into the STREAM model. (ongoing)
4. Implementing Power and Heat production. This is done by using the
data from the BALMOREL runs.
5. Model the 2030 and 2050 scenarios. Doing all the above with new
data.
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20% power for heat and 33% electrical
heat for heat pumps
• The expert groups scenario for 2020 is that 20% of the
produced power should go to local heat, and 33% of this
electrical consumption should in 2020 be used by heat
pumps.
• The next slide shows a possible distribution to fulfill this
scenario.
• NOTE: This distribution will probably change after the costs
and savings have been calculated.
20% power for heat and 33% electrical
heat for heat pumps
2010 distribution of
consumption
Possible 2020 distribution of
consumption
Assumptions that needs to be clarified
with expert group:
We would like your opinion on the following assumptions:
• Share of DH for residential is 45% for apartments and 55% for detached houses.
Assumed 80% of apartments [1] and 55% of all residents have DH [2].
• Uses air/air and brine/ground heat pumps for residential, and brine/ground heat
pumps for service
Air/air is the most common in Estonia right now [3], but doesn’t have the capacity
for larger buildings [4]. Plus brine/ground is favorable in the future (higher COP).
• Agriculture and fisheries uses 2080 TJ and 336 TJ of diesel respectively in 2010.
Agriculture accounts for 3.0% and fisheries accounts for 0.5% [5] of the GDP of
Estonia [6]. The diesel consumption is 2416 TJ for agriculture and fisheries
combined [2].
[1] 95% of apartments in Finland are connected to DH http://energia.fi/en/home-and-heating/district-heating
[2] Expert group Google Spreadsheet
[3] https://www.energia.ee/en/kokkuhoid/kyte
[4] http://www.ens.dk/Documents/Netboghandel%20%20publikationer/2012/Technology_data_for_individual_heating_plants_and%20energy_transport.pdf
[5] ESTONIAN FISHERIES STRATEGY 2007–2013, by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Estonia
[6] http://www.stat.ee/18533
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