Transcript Chesapeake Bay & Climate Change

Fisheries and Climate
Change
Dr. John T. Everett
National Marine Fisheries Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
United States Department of Commerce
Existing Stresses
• Overfishing
• Pollution
• Non-native species
• Habitat loss
• Water resource management
• Natural climate variability
• UV-B radiation
Impacts
• Expected changes in temperature, precip., sea
level, and ice cover are important
• CC impacts interact with existing stresses
• Northern freshwater fisheries and aquaculture
should benefit, but with some losses also
• Marine production should be about the same;
but fishery areas and species mix will shift
• Impacts (+/-) vary by species and habitats:
oceanic species less than coastal or riverine
Impacts - 2
• Changes in abundance are more likely near
ecosystem boundaries
• Some species are at risk from flooding,
heat, and changes in precip.
• Economic impacts should be small
nationally. Locally they could be large
• If society develops the ability to deal with
the current issues, CC impacts will be less
Apparent Oceanwide Synchrony
in Pacific Basin Sardines
Historical catches in the sardine fisheries of Japan, California and Peru-Chile have exhibited parallel
patterns, possibly in response to global-scale changes in climate (modified from Kawasaki, 1992).
800
7
Peru/Chile
(Thousand Metric Tons)
California Sardine Catch
5
500
California
4
400
3
300
2
200
100
1
Japan
0
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year
Sources: U.S. GLOBEC, FAO 1995, NMFS/Our Living Oceans 1996
Catch (Million Metric Tons)
600
6
Japan and Peru/Chile Sardine
700
Normalized Catch Time Series
Comparison of pink salmon catch in the Gulf of Alaska with coho salmon catch in the Washington, Oregon,
California region (Francis and Sibley, 1991).
2.5
2
Standard Index
1.5
1
WOC Coho
GOA Pink
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year
Adaptation Options
•
Implement fisheries mgt that recognizes
shifting distributions and abundances
•
Research on mgt systems and ecosystems
•
Expand aquaculture to increase and stabilize
seafood supplies and employment, and
carefully, to augment wild stocks
•
Integrate fisheries and river and shore mgt
•
Monitor health problems (red tides, cholera)