Transcript THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in …

THE ORANGE REVOLUTION
and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in
UKRAINE
Agenda
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What is Ukraine? An overview
The Orange Revolution and its historical
preconditions
Who was ruling Ukraine? Politics and economy…
Why these elections were so important?
What were the main issues of presidential campaign 2004?
What is going to change in Ukraine?
What to take home? – Q&A
UKRAINE
• The biggest country in the East Central Europe:
- territory: 603,5 thousand km2
- population: 47,280,800,000+ people
• A multiethnic country: more than 130 nationalities
• 24 oblasts + Autonomous Republic of Crimea
- exit to 2 seas: Black, Azov
- mountains: Carpathians, Crimean
- major rivers: Dnipro, Dnistro, Dunay, Prut, Bug, Donets
• Neighbors: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary (the EU),
Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey (the future EU), Belarus,
Russia, Georgia, (the CIS)
UKRAINE (continued)
Population (thousands of ppl)
53000
52000
51000
50000
49000
48000
47000
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
46000
45000
44000
%
UKRAINE (continued)
• GDP growth: 12% in 2004
• *Areas of strong specialization: mineral
production, oil and energy products,
chemical products, mechanical equipment,
machines, electrical equipment, transport
and road equipment, black metals, textiles,
polymeric materials
• Main trade partners: CIS, EU, Africa, Asia
• FDI: USD 7761,5 mln
UKRAINE (continued)
Real GDP Growth (1991-2004)
15
12
9,2
10
5,9
9,3
5,2
5
-0,2
0
-5
-10
-15
-3
-8,7 -9,9
-12,2
-14,2
-20
-25
-22,9
-10
-1,9
%
Ukrainian History
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Kyiv Rus
Cossacks’ military state
Bohdan Khmelnitskiy’s Hetmanate
Ukrainian People’s Republic
Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic
Ukraine…
Have been re-divided among:
Lithuania, Poland, Austro-Hungary,
Russia, Romania, Czechoslovakia…
• Have always been fighting for
freedom
Elites and elections
1991 – presidential elections: Leonid Kravchuk.
CPU apparatchiks + ‘red directorate’
1994 – presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma
‘Red director’ + business clans
1998 – parliamentary elections:
Communist party + ‘red directorate’
Business Groups in Ukraine
Industrial Union System Capital
Management
Donbass
Interpipe
Pryvat
Interpipe:
Key personality: Viktor Pinchuk, Kuchma’s son-in-law. Personal wealth: USD1.5 bln.
Political representation: Trudova Ukraina, ex-Head of NBU, ex-Minister of Economy
Media assets controlled: ICTV, Ukrainian Media-Holding (newspapers, radio stations)
Industrial Union of Donbass:
Key person: Mr.Taruta. Personal wealth: USD1.2 bln.
Political representation: ex-Prime Minister (Viktor Yanukovych), ex-minister of fuel
and energy, ex-president’s advisor
System Capital Management:
Key person: Renat Akhmetov. Personal wealth: USD2.5 bln.
Political representation: Regions of Ukraine
Media assets controlled: TRC Ukraina, Internet web-sites
Pryvat:
Key person: Ihor Kolomoyskiy. Personal wealth: USD2.2 bln.
Political representation: Trudova Ukraina, ex-head of Presidential Administration
(Viktor Medvedchuk), ex-Head of NBU
Media assets controlled by Medvedchuk: Inter, 1+1, newspapers, radio stations,
Internet web-sites
BUSINESS GROUPS IN UKRAINE (continued)
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STRENGTHS
Strong influence on
politics through political
representation
Control over major
production areas in
Ukraine
Access to President
Kuchma
Control over media
assets securing control
over public opinion
WEAKNESSES
 Lack of consolidation
(groups compete in
business and political
influence)
 Various extents of
dependence on Kuchma
 Concentrated allocation
(East of Ukraine:
Dnepropetrovsk,
Donetsk, Kharkov)
Areas of Business Groups’ Competition*
System Capital
Management
Industrial
Union of
Donbass
Interpipe
Metals
Metal Mining
Coke
Metals
Metal Mining
Coke
Pipes
Pipes
Ferro alloys
Oblenergos
Machine building Machine building
Oblenergos
Telecoms
Mass Media
Metals
Telecoms
Pryvat
Metals
Metal Mining
Coke
Ferro Alloys
Telecoms
Mass Media
Elites and elections (continued)
March 1999 – the leader of opposition dies in a car crash
October 1999 – presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma
VS
Leonid KUCHMA
Petro SYMONENKO
(leader of Communists)
(= Russian scenario: Yeltsin vs Ziuganov…)
Intrusion of Russian political technologists
UKRAINE WITHOUT KUCHMA 2000
Vyacheslav Chornovil
Georgiy Gongadze
REFERENDUM: Ukraine – a presidential republic?
The people said ‘YES’? Falsifications…
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MELNICHENKO’S TAPES
Kuchma was selling missiles to Iraq?
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International pressure
MASS PROTESTS: KUCHMA’S IMPEACHMENT!?
Viktor Yuschenko
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Successful banker
1996–1999 - Head of the National
Bank of Ukraine:
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Stopped inflation
Introduced Hryvnya
Avoided financial crisis of 1998
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2000 – Prime Minister:
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Achieved positive growth rate of 5.9%
Eliminated barters
Paid salary and pension debts
Pressed the business groups
Weaknesses: mildness, tendency to loosing
momentum
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Elites and Elections (continued)
2002 – parliamentary elections: Nasha Ukraina,
bloc of Viktor Yuschenko
Results of the Parliamentary Elections
2002
23.57
19.98
11.77
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6.87
6.27
Socialist
Party
For United
Ukraine
7.26
Nasha
Ukraina
25
20
15
10
5
0
A SIGNAL FOR THE REGIME!
Opposition fails to form a majority
Viktor Medvedchuk becomes the Head of
Presidential Administration
Viktor Yanukovych
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Head of the Donetsk State
Administration
Head of the Donetsk Oblast
Council
2002-2004 - Prime Minister
Increased economic growth to 12%
Increased salaries and pensions
Fought the crop and fuel crises
Weaknesses: 2 criminal convictions,
close links to unpopular regime
and business groups
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM
The last attempt of Kuchma to presume power after elections
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Constitution of 1996
PRESIDENT
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Prime Minister
PARLIAMENT
Proposed changes (2004)
President
PRIME MINISTER
PARLIAMENT
ON THE THRESHOLD OF ELECTIONS 2004
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The great possibility of Yuschenko being
elected is a real danger for the business groups
Business groups unite their resources and
influence to support Yanukovych
Funds (Renat Akhmetov) + Media (Viktor Pinchuk) +
Russian polittechnologists (Viktor Medvedchuk) =
growth of Yanukovych’s rating from 4% to 30%
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Russia resumes its pressure
CAMPAIGN 2004
26 candidates
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Violations of electoral law:
Technical candidates…
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Falsifying signatures
Using administrative resource
Foreign intrusion (citizens of Russia
supporting one of the candidates)
Exceeding campaign financial limits
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Applying political technologies:
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Playing on differences between East and
West of Ukraine
Raising pensions and salaries…
inflation
Preventing Yuschenko from coming to
the Eastern regions
Creating false images of candidates
(Yuschenko - fascist)
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Access to media and
resources
Rejected to most of the candidates
but one
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Positioning of the major
candidates
Busy Prime Minister vs People’s
candidate
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Attempts at murdering the
candidates
Poisoning of Yuschenko vs Egg
scandal of Yanukovych
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RESULTS
31.10.2004
49.46
51.99
Yanukovych
Yuschenko
21.11.2004
44.2
Yanukovych
39.26
46.61
Yuschenko
39.9
Yanukovych
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Yuschenko
Results of presidential elections 2004
26.12.2004
RESULTS OF THE ORANGE REVOLUTION
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Yuschenko is the President of Ukraine
Ukraine has become famous in all of the world
Ukraine is going to be a parliamentary republic
Ukraine has declared a course towards
democratic reforms
Representatives of ex-opposition replaced all
of the key authorities
The pressure of Russia has decreased
Ukraine has cleared its external course: EU
WHAT TO TAKE HOME
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The Orange Revolution is a result of many
years’ evolution of Ukrainian politics and
economy
The Orange Revolution is the third democratic
change of elites in Ukraine
The Orange Revolution has reshaped
Ukraine’s position in Europe and the CIS
FOR MORE INFO
www.pravda.com.ua
www.bbc.co.uk/ukrainian
www.cvk.gov.ua
www.ukrstat.gov.ua
www.president.gov.ua
www.yuschenko.com.ua
www.ya2004.com.ua