Transcript A Battle Beyond Access and Retrieval

The Battle for Mindshare
A Battle Beyond Access and Retrieval
Dr. John J. Regazzi
Miles Conrad Lecture
NFAIS Conference 2004
Battle for Mindshare

The Context

The ‘Shifting Sands’

What Way Forward
THE CONTEXT
Information Supply Chain
Information Supply Chain
Historical
AUTHORS
PUBLISHERS
LIBRARIES
READERS
2
THE CONTEXT
Information Supply Chain
Information Supply Chain
Early Online Impact
AUTHORS
PUBLISHERS
A&I SERVICES,
ONLINE
VENDORS
LIBRARIES
READERS
3
THE CONTEXT
Information Supply Chain
A simple information “supply chain”
has been transformed into a complex
information network…
4
THE CONTEXT
Information Supply Chain
Information Supply Chain
Today
OPEN
ACCES
S
AUTHORS
eBOOK, eJOURNALS
PREPRINT SERVERS
CONTENT AGGREGATORS
PUBLISHERS
SECONDARY
PUBLISHING
LOCAL SYSTEMS DDS,
SILVER PLATTER
LIBRARIES
SYNDICATORS &
FACTIVA AGENTS
ONLINE VENDORS
DIALOG,
STN, LN
DOCUMENT DELIVERY
SERVICES
KNOWLEDGE
MANAGEMENT
SYSTEMS
CORPORATE
INFORMATION
SERVICES
NEW ONLINE PORTALS
WEB PORTALS
GOOGLE
NATIONAL/REGIONAL
CONSORTIA
INFORMATION INTERMEDIARIES
READERS
5
THE CONTEXT
Information Supply Chain
A simple information “supply chain”
has been transformed into a (perhaps too)
complex information network …
How did this happen?
6
THE CONTEXT
What Happened?
Technology
Explosion
Directory Data
Expansion



Discovery & Access Systems
Growth
Significant A&I Industry Growth
Or Did It
?
7
THE CONTEXT
Explosion of Technology
Information Technology Costs
1972 vs. 2003
$ per million transactions
9000
1000
2500
4500
Storage Characters
Telecommunications
Characters NY - LA
CPU Power
Instructions
5000
.001
0
1972
2003
8
THE CONTEXT
Growth of Data
Refereed Academic Journal Growth
1900-2000 Number of Journals
3.3%
4.7%
3.3%
100
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
9
THE CONTEXT
Growth of Databases
Number of Databases
150% 10YR
Growth Rate
20,000 est.
8,000
7
1972
1992
2003
Records in Databases
122% 10YR
Growth Rate
2M
1972
5.2 M
1982
10 BN est.
4.5 BN
1992
2003
10
THE CONTEXT
Growth of the A&I Market

Adjusted figures show that the A&I market is
shrinking in overall size.
STM A&I Global Revenues
1972-2003
- 5% Market Growth
since 1999
5.3% Annual
Growth
$1BN
$830M
$200M
1972
1982
1992
1999
2003
Note: 0-1% growth in constant dollar
11
THE SHIFTING SANDS
Shifting Sands

What Shifts?






And why ...?




University Infrastructure Spending
A&I Production, Coverage and Focus
Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns
Early Shifts in Access Models
Shifts in Mindshare
With what has commonly been known as the information explosion …
With the revolution of information technology fully engaged …
With full acceptance, access and use of the technologies now in full
force …
Why is the Information Access Market not growing but in
decline?
12
THE SHIFTING SANDS
University Infrastructure Spending
Research & Library Spending Growth
1975-1995
Index
260
240
220
200
180
US Total
Academic R&D
160
140
Avg ARL
Library
Expenditure
120
100
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
13
THE SHIFTING SANDS
University Infrastructure Spending
Library Expenditures as a Percent of University Expenditures
40 ARL Libraries, 1982-2000
%
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
14
THE SHIFTING SANDS
University Infrastructure Spending
Expenditures at (Private) US University A
Academic Support
63.0%
Serials 0.2%
Monographs 0.1%
Other Materials
0.1%
Library
1.3%
Salaries & Wages
0.6%
Binding 0.0%
Other 0.3%
Other
37.5%
15
THE SHIFTING SANDS
A&I Production & Coverage
STM Database Expansion – Duplication of Effort
Shifting Sands
Creation of inefficient market
where library pays multiple times
for same record, plus (often)
increase distribution markups
Current Indexes Overlap
2001 Study
55%
53%
Significant
Redundancies
in Public &
Private
Sectors
23%
Records in Databases
10 BN est.
4.5 BN
2M
1972
5.2 M
1982
1992
122% 10YR
Growth
Rate
2003
Science Education
Social
Science
16
THE SHIFTING SANDS
Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns
Online Technology Impact
Growth in Online Usage Drivers
US Household PC Acceptance
Societal Behavioral Factors
80BN
Online
Search
> 1M
2002
1972
• 22% have more than 1 PC
• 7-10% are networked
• >50% have Internet Access
• 68% children use it for school
• 64% adults use it for Information
589M
PC
Units
⇧600%
2.1M
2002
1972
172M
Web
Hosts
130
1972
Household
s with PC’s
1972
2002
2003
17
THE SHIFTING SANDS
Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns
Online Experience
> 3 years using internet
70%
Total
82%
MD's
%
86%
PhD's
91%
Over 55
Work-related Internet Use
Days per Week
Increase
%
95
100
to 65%
in over
55 group
15
33
80
60
47
40
Work-related Search Engine Use
Days per Week
%
100
86
12
41
80
60
33
40
20
20
0
7
D
ay
s
ay
s
26
D
ay
D
1
W
ee
kl
y
s
67
D
ay
s
ay
D
45
ay
D
13
W
ee
kl
s
y
0
18
THE SHIFTING SANDS
Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns
Early shift in Access Models to desktop
Shifting Sands
Experimentation by
primary publishers with
free access to metadata
 IEEE+
 Google
 Cross Search
Information Supply Chain
Historical
AUTHORS
PUBLISHERS
SEARCH
ENGINE
READERS
19
THE SHIFTING SANDS
Shifts in Mindshare
Who has the mindshare lead?
Top 3 Online Scientific Search Resources
Librarians VS Scientists
Science Direct
ISI Web of Science
Medline
Google
Yahoo
PubMed
42%
2%
37%
2%
31%
2%
0%
39%
0%
10%
11%
9%
Librarians
Scientists
20
THE SHIFTING SANDS
Shifts in Mindshare
Just how much are Search Engines worth?
Search Engine vs. A&I Industry
2002
30
$, Billions
Market Value
2
Search Engine - 5 YRS
Development
3
Sales Revenue
0.8
A & I - 100 YRS
Development
21
WHAT WAY FORWARD
A Sea of Change
But what will researchers need and will search
engines alone be able to deliver

Scientists and Researchers have needed to become much more pragmatic

Researchers increasingly work in teams – less emphasis on research and
more on development as seen in top five information sources used

Corporate research teams are involved from design to market launch and
need information that is traditional (journals, reports, etc.) but also business
and regulatory

Data Integration/Data Mining
22
WHAT WAY FORWARD
Pharmaceutical and Biotech Needs
Indexed Growth (1991 = 100)
250
200
R&D Expenditure
150
Sales
Development Time
100
New Drugs
50
0
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
DATA INTEGRATION/DATA MINING



Scientists still have to integrate different information sources in a
related context, be they sources of internal & external information,
or scientific and business information
BCG estimates $282M (33% of R&D costs) could be saved with an
integrated content platform
Making informed decisions: The top three barriers identified by
Outsell for corporate scientists




Inability to compare across information sources
Determining quality, credibility and accuracy
Knowing what is available
Key driver to improved productivity in biopharmaceutical R&D,
23
WHAT WAY FORWARD
Health Care Needs
Patient Information and Treatment
History
Physical Exam
Lab
Diagnosis
Evaluation
Prevention
Risk Reduction
Orders
 Drugs
 Procedures
 Tests
Referrals
Patient Education
24
WHAT WAY FORWARD
Agricultural Engineering Needs
CONTEXT
Search the database to
produce a list of
possible pests.
TREATMENT
CABI
COMPENDIUM
Datasheet provides a
route to further text,
pictures and maps.
ASSESSMENT
Compare pest and crop distribution
25
WHAT WAY FORWARD
Summary
Who can deliver these viable information resources?
Well neither content nor search is king here!
Rather it is those organizations which can




Filter and select
Structure the content
Provide the essential information at the right time
Provide a context – ‘a sense-making’ tool
In short, the future belongs not to those that merely
navigate us through cyberspace, nor those who
populate it with data. Rather it belongs to those who
help us make sense of all that is available to us.
26