Transcript Oil Sands - National Academy of Engineering

National Institute on Energy, Ethics, and Society,
National Institute on Energy, Ethics, and Society, April 8-12, 2013
Transitioning
Transportation Fuel
April 8-12, 2013
A Global Challenge
“The world’s energy system is at a
crossroads. Current global trends in
energy supply and consumption are
patently unsustainable -- environmentally,
economically or socially.”
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
Powering America’s Economy
Finding 1: America’s energy choices are inextricably linked
to national economic security
Finding 2: The clean energy technology revolution presents
great challenges and great opportunities.
Finding 3: Energy business-as-usual is not a viable option
for the United States
Finding 4: The Department of Defense can be a powerful
catalyst of energy innovation
CNA Military Advisory Board
July 2010
Global Energy
Energy and GDP
400
Primary Energy per capita (GJ)
USA
350
300
Australia
250
Russia
France
Japan
UK
200
S. Korea
Ireland
150
100
Malaysia
Mexico
50 China
India
0
0
Greece
5,000
Brazil
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)
30,000
35,000
40,000
6
World Population
High
Low
Median
Actual
18
16
Billions
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1900
1950
2000
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
2050
2100
2150
GDP per Capita
IEA Scenarios
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
6DS
where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating results
The 2°C Scenario
The 4°C Scenario
The 6°C Scenario
450 PPM
New Policies
Current Policies
New Policies
Scenario
• Global population increases by 1.7 billion
• 3.5% annual average GDP growth
• Energy demand increases by one-third
from 2010 to 2035.
IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
2011 - 2035
10
Earth lights - 2008
Seth Dunn - Policy & Market Development, GE Renewable Energy
USMA, May 20th, 2008
Earth lights - 2030
Seth Dunn - Policy & Market Development, GE Renewable Energy
USMA, May 20th, 2008
Infrastructure
Investment
• Global infrastructure $38 trillion*
– Almost two-thirds outside of the OECD.
• Oil and gas $20 trillion
• Power sector most of the remainder
– over 40% for transmission and distribution
• 450ppm additional $15.2 trillion
IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
2011 - 2035
* New Policies Scenario
2010 Dollars
13
Transportation
Fuel
Oil Supply
Finding
Conventional Oil
Gulf of Mexico
Gulf of Mexico
Drill Sites
Wikipedia: Gulf Coast Platforms
Oil Reserves
US
Billions of barrels
Nigeria
Kazakhstan
Libya
Russian Federation
United Arab Emirates
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran
Venezuela
Canada
Saudi Arabia
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
Carbon Supply
Oil Sands
use inspired · transdisciplinary · intellectual fusion · social embeddedness
Oil Sands
Alberta oil sands
Alberta Oil Sands
• 1 million barrels per day
from sands
• Half from mining
Shale
Gas Reserves
EIA 2011
unproved
technically
recoverable
resource
482 TCF
down from
827 TCF
Shale Gas Reserves
EIA 2011
Shale Gas
Breakeven Marginal Price Points for the Major Shale Plays
Natural Gas Price
Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
Renewable
Supply
Biofuel US Transportation
40
35
Renewable Fuel
Cellulosic Biofuel
Billions of Gallons
30
25
RenewableTarget 2012
15.2 Billion Gallons
9.2% of supply
20
Maximum
Grain Ethanol
15 Billion Gallons
15
10
5
0
2005
Grain Ethanol 2011
13.9bn gallons
2010
2015
2020
2025
Billion Ton Supply
Cellulosic
Ethanol Projects
Algal Products
Non-Fuel Lipids
Co-Products
Bioremediation
Carbon Capture
Feedstock
Production
Harvesting &
Dewatering
Drying &
Pre-processing
Extraction &
Conversion
Commercialization &
deployment
Facilities - AzCATI
Synechocystis as a Biocatalyst
Synechocystis
•
•
•
•
•
Advanced Research Projects Agency • Energy
Naturally transformable
Known genome
Salt tolerant (0-1.2 M NaCl)
Temperature tolerant (up to 45oC)
Efficient light harvesting
Transport Fuel
Coal to Liquids
Oil Sands/
Shale Oil
Hydrogen
Electric
Cars
Natural
Gas to
Liquids
Artificial
Photosynthesis
Solar
Thermochemical
Advanced
Biofuels
Grain
Ethanol
A fork in the (tree)
road
Conventional Oil
35
CO2 in Atmosphere
September
2012
394 ppm
Mauna Loa
A global challenge
“We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that
the failure to do so would betray our children and future
generations. …The path towards sustainable energy sources
will be long and sometimes difficult. But America cannot resist
this transition; we must lead it. We cannot cede to other nations
the technology that will power new jobs and new industries –
we must claim its promise.”
President Barak Obama January 2013
A global challenge
“So I’m not disputing that increasing CO2 emissions in the
atmosphere is going to have an impact. It'll have a warming
impact. ….how large it is is what is very hard for anyone to
predict. And depending on how large it is then projects how
dire the consequences are.”
“So we will adapt this. Changes to weather patterns that move
crop production areas around – we’ll adapt to that. It’s and
engineer problem, and it has engineering solutions.”
Rex Tillerson, Chairman and CEO, Exxon Mobil
June 2012
A global challenge
“If we don’t change direction
soon, we’ll end up where we’re
heading”
IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
Questions?
A global challenge
“Ours is an industry that is built on technology, it’s built on
science, it’s built on engineering, and because we have a
society that by and large is illiterate in these areas, science,
math and engineering, what we do is a mystery to them and
they find it scary. And because of that, it creates easy
opportunities for opponents of development, activist
organizations, to manufacture fear.” “…the pace at which
these things occur oftentimes is our ability to deal with the
manufactured fear …”
Rex Tillerson, Chairman and CEO, Exxon Mobil
June 2012
Affordability
Oil Price from 1861
Suppliers
Breakeven Price
Qatar - GTL
• 140,000 barrels per day
• Natural gas to liquid fuel
• $19bn
Coal to Liquid Fuel
Sasol Coal, South Africa
ShenHua, Coal China
Recoverable
Resources
47
Oil Sands
Alberta oil sands
Alberta Oil Sands
• 1 million barrels per day
from sands
• Half from mining
LightWorks Vision
ASU will inspire and develop ways to
revolutionize the use of energy and the large
scale conversion of sunlight, carbon dioxide
and water into useful products. We will
support creation of new industries not just to
power the world, but to empower it; not just to
create wealth for a few, but to enrich people's
lives everywhere; not just to light an energy
revolution, but to enlighten communities
across the globe; not just to achieve energy
security but to secure energy justice.
US Historical Fuel Mix
100%
90%
80%
Renewables
70%
Nuclear
60%
Gas
50%
Oil
40%
Hydro
Coal
30%
Wood
20%
10%
0%
1850
1880
1910
1940
1970
2000