Transcript The Middle East, nationalism, Le Moyen

Imperialism,
globalization in crisis
and Obama’s Middle
Eastern empire
Introduction
Place of report in the session
o Reporter:
o
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o
a US
Jewish
gay
anti-imperialist
… in Holland
Reporter’s limits:
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
not an economist
not an expert on any of these countries
Overview of report
Imperialism: Lenin’s classic
theory
II. Neoliberal globalization
III. Armed globalization and the
‘war on terror’
IV. From Bush II to Obama: in Iraq,
Afghanistan, Libya and Palestine
I.
I. Imperialism: Lenin’s theory
The Marxist understanding of imperialism before
Lenin
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Marx and Engels: Ireland, Poland, Algeria and India
German social democracy: ‘not a man, not a penny’
Cracks in the consensus: the Moroccan crisis (1911)
An outdated vision of capitalism: revisionism and
Hilferding’s Finance Capital
Luxemburg’s The Accumulation of Capital
The shock of 1914
Basics of Lenin’s theory
(from a non-economist!)
Laissez-faire capitalism and monopoly
capitalism
Uneven development and export of capital
Competition for raw materials
The division of the planet: colonial empires
Spheres of influence and semi-colonies
Colonial empires 1914
(Official) division of the world
PERCENTAGE OF TERRITORY BELONGING TO THE
EUROPEAN COLONIAL POWERS (including the
United States)
1876 1900 Increase or decrease
Africa..........
10.8 90.4 +79.6
Polynesia....
56.8 98.9 +42.1
Asia............
51.5 56.6 +5.1
Australia.....
100.0 100.0 —
America......
27.5 27.2 -0.3
(Unofficial) control of the world
DISTRIBUTION (APPROXIMATE) OF FOREIGN
CAPITAL IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE GLOBE
(circa 1910)
Britain France Germany Total
(in billions of German marks)
Europe..........
4
23
18
45
America..........
37
4
10
51
Asia, Africa, and Australia......
29
8
7
44
Total........
70
35
35
140
Imperialism, 1916-1982
1914-20
Re-division: German and Ottoman possessions
become British, French, Italian, Japanese and US
1936-45
Failed German challenge to re-division; Italy
and Japan lose their colonial possessions
1947/1956
Truman Doctrine and Suez crisis mark
replacement of British by US hegemony
1949
Chinese revolution
1955
Bandung: India, Indonesia, Egypt etc. gain
autonomy
1975
US defeat in Vietnam
1979/1980/1982
Thatcher elected; Reagan elected; debt
crisis
II. Neoliberal globalization
Is imperialism still a relevant framework
to analyze the post-1979 world
economy?
Claudio Katz’s arguments:
• Growth of inequality: dominant and dependent countries
• Terms of trade
• Extraction of financial resources
• Transfer of industrial profits
• Loss of political autonomy
Distribution of wealth (2005)
% world pop. % world GDP GDP per cap.
Dominant
countries
14%
78%
$ 31,000
Dependent
countries
80%
19%
$ 1,410
(Figures from CADTM)
Debt: the poor fund the rich
Marshall Plan aid to Europe,
post-WW2:
$
Debt payments from dependent
to dominant countries, 1980-2004:
$5300 billion
Number of total Marshall Plans
from poor to rich:
90 billion
59
Terms of trade and repatriation of
profits
Ratio of prices between dependent country exports
and dependent country imports:
1980
100
2002
48
Net repatriation of profits from dependent countries
by multinational corporations, 1998-2002:
$ 334 billion
Multinationals: monopoly finance capital
Selected GDP of countries and revenues of multinational corporations
Countries (IMF, 2010, $ billion)
1. US
$ 14,658
2. China
5,878
5. France
2,582
7. Brazil
2,090
10. India
1,538
12. Spain
1,410
16. Netherlands
869
Egypt
218
Israel
213
Iraq
82
Afghanistan
15
Multinationals (2010/11, $ billion)
1. Wal-Mart
$ 422
2. Exxon Mobil
370
3. Shell
368
4. BP
297
5. Sinopec
290
6. Toyota
242
7. PetroChina
222
8. Total
213
9. Chevron
205
10. Japan Post
201
Autonomy lost - and found?
IMF/World Bank/WTO: one dollar, one vote
‘Structural adjustment’ and ‘conditionality’
Consequences for social spending and debt
repayment
Consequences for negotiating positions
Beyond dependence: China, Brazil, India(?)
Signs of change: Doha, Bancosur(?)
III. Armed globalization and
the ‘war on terror’
• Militarism: response to — and cause of — disintegration of
peripheral states (Katz)
• Role of US:
* Enforcer of neoliberal world order
* Sole superpower: 50%+ of global military spending
* Military-industrial complex
* Military supremacy & inter-imperialist rivalries
* Oil: Latin America and the Middle East
• Tools: ‘Coalitions of the willing’, NATO and UN
The post-1991 world order
The first US invasion of Iraq (1991): a
decisive moment (Achcar)
US military return to Gulf region (after 1962
withdrawal)
Demonstration of superior US military
technology
Network of bases and alliances
9/11: Bush’s opportunity
The intervention in Afghanistan and the US presence in Central Asia
IV. The empire and Obama
A time of deepening crisis
In Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Palestine
Factors in imperial politics in Mideast:
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Oil
Geopolitics
Alliance with Zionism
‘Clash of civilizations’
Introduction: imperialism and globalization in the
Islamic world
Glory of the Islamic world
Ottomans (and Safavids)
British and French
US imperialism
1933 US contract with Saudi king
1956 Suez crisis
1967 & 1973 US backs Israel
1979 Iran revolution; USSR invades Afghanistan
1989 USSR leaves Afghanistan
1991 First US invasion of Iraq
2001 9/11; US invasion of Afghanistan
2003-?US invasion and occupation of Iraq
2008 Descent into global slump
2010/1Arab revolutions; intervention in Libya
Lessons of Middle Eastern
history
Depth of anti-imperialism
Oil, imperialism and populism
Vital interests: converging and
contradictory
‘The Arab despotic exception’
Oil: proven reserves (2010)
Rank
Country
Reserves (bil. bbp)
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
United Arab Emirates
Venezuela
Russia
Libya
Nigeria
265
175
138
115
104
98
98
74
47
38
% of total
19
13
10
8
8
7
7
5
3
3
Oil: reserves by region
Oil: control
Control over oil depends less on legal ownership than on
extraction and refining technology and profit-sharing
1912
Iraq: Turkish Petroleum Company founded (later Iraq
Petroleum Company, European consortium)
1933
Saudi Arabia: Agreement with Standard Oil (US)
1951
Iran: Parliament nationalizes oil
1954
Iran: After coup, shah signs Consortium Agreement
with Western companies
1972
Iraq: Ba’athist regime nationalizes oil
1973
OPEC boycott of US and Netherlands
2007
Iraq: Hydrocarbon law introduced in parliament
Israel: imperial liability, imperial
asset
Liability
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Spark of revolutions (1952 and after)
Major factor in legitimacy of independent-minded fundamentalism
(Hamas, Hezbollah)
Cost ($3 billion per year and trade benefits)
A loose cannon
Asset
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•
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A rock-solid ally
Source of expertise in spying, assassination, torture
A useful proxy for intervention (in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq…)
World’s fourth-largest military
… at a fraction of the cost of US forces
The clash of barbarisms
Islam and Arab identity
The diversity of Islam: Sunni centre and Shia crescent
Petty bourgeoisie and fundamentalism
The diversity of fundamentalism: pro-imperial, anti‘crusader’ and undecided
Women and LGBTs
Fundamentalism: a deadly enemy
‘March separately, strike together’
The Arab revolutions: fundamentalism sidelined
Iraq
Oil (fourth largest proven reserves)
Resistance: 1920s, 1958, Ba’athism
‘A new Middle East’
US hegemony: challenge to Russia, China …
France
US power, Iranian influence: clash ahead?
Obama’s ‘withdrawal’
Ongoing resistance and solidarity
Afghanistan
No oil
Resistance: 19th century (Durand Line,
1893), 1979, Taliban
Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan
State-building?: the US (‘Enduring
Freedom’), NATO (ISAF) and the UN
Obama’s war
A difficult solidarity
Arab revolutions/intervention
in Libya
An end to the ‘Arab despotic exception’?
Tunisia: the spark
Egypt: the central country (since 1952)
Imperialism threatened (Bahrain) or
marginalized (Syria)
A very unfinished process (tomorrow)
Libya: oil (a bit), history of resistance (since
1911), shifting relation to imperialism
The right to assistance - and the danger of
subordination
Palestine
No oil
Resistance: 1929, 1936, fedayeen, Intifadas (1987
& 2000)
Fatah, Hamas … and the left
The impossible second state
The assault on Gaza (2008)
Obama and the ‘peace process’
Towards a new strategy?
Palestine: the impossible
second state
Resistance and solidarity
The legitimacy of resistance
The balance of military forces
Our globalization: linking civil societies
Fundamentalism and democracy, capital
and labour
Solidarity: a political battle
Solidarity: concrete tasks