Transcript The Impact of Instability on the Capacity of the

UN-Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
Informal Dialogue with the Second Committee on GLobalization
“The Impact of Instability on the Capacity of the ESCWA Region
to Address the Challenges of Globalization”
Presentation
By
Ms. Mervat Tallawy
Executive Secretary, ESCWA
In this years Summit, World Leaders,
acknowledged that:
“peace and security, development and human rights
are the pillars of the United Nations System and the
foundations for collective security and well being ”
“development, peace and security are interlinked
and mutually reinforcing”
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Instability and Tension in Western Asia
• Occupation and Arab-Israeli conflict
• Civil Strife in Iraq and the presence of foreign
military forces
• Political tensions in Lebanon and Syria
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Opportunities and Challenges of
Globalization
• Access to larger economic markets or lack there
of;
• Technological innovation and its impact on
productivity and competitiveness;
• Gradual integration of economies into the new
world trading system;
• Formation of strong regional blocs;
• Free flow of capital;
• Competitiveness;
• Uneven distribution of the benefits of
globalization;
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Some Indicators for the ESCWA Region
Table 1. ESCWA region and overall Arab world share of global economy,
2004: selected indicators
ESCWA
region
(1)
Arab
world
(2)
World
(3)
ESCWA
region share
of world total
(percentage)
[1:3=(4)]
Area (millions of square miles)
1.8
5.3
51.8
3.5
10.2
Population (millions)
179
305.6
6,345
2.8
4.8
GDP (billions of dollars)
648.8
864.5
40,888
1.6
2.1
Value of goods exported
(billions of dollars)
307.7
383.2
9123.5
3.4
4.2
Value of goods imported
(billions of dollars)
180.1
239.1
9458.3
1.9
2.5
Total international trade
(billions of dollars)
487.8
622.3
18,582
2.6
3.4
FDI (millions of dollars)
7.9
12.219
648.2
1.2
1.9
Oil production (m/b/d)
Arab world
share of world
total
(percentage)
[2:3=(5)]
19.2
22.3
71.5
26.8
31.2
Known oil reserves (billions of barrels)
608.3
4.66
1.10
55.1
59.8
Natural Gas reserves
(billions of cubic meters)
46947
53127
171575
27.4
31.0
Annual renewable water resources
(cubic meters per year)
173.1
313.3
55176
0.3
0.6
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Table 2. Real GDP and growth rate estimates in the ESCWA region
at constant 2000 prices, 2001-2005
Country/area
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Bahrain
5.3
4.6
5.2
6.8
5.0
7.0
Kuwait
1.9
0.6
(0.4)
6.0
3.0
5.5
Oman
5.5
7.5
2.3
1.9
3.6
4.5
Qatar
9.1
4.5
7.3
4.9
6.0
5.0
Saudi Arabia
4.9
0.6
0.1
7.2
5.3
5.0
12.3
3.5
1.9
7.0
4.0
6.0
GCC countries
6.2
1.9
1.1
6.6
4.7
5.3
Egypt
3.4
3.2
3.1
4.1
5.5
6.0
Jordan
4.1
4.9
4.8
3.3
5.5
5.0
0
2.0
2.0
3.0
5.0
2.0
Syrian Arab Republic
0.6
3.8
4.2
2.6
2.7
3.5
Yemen
4.4
4.7
3.6
3.9
3.3
3.2
MDEs
2.8
3.3
3.3
3.7
4.9
5.0
ESCWA region
5.1
2.3
1.8
5.7
4.8
5.2
Iraq
2.3
3.4
-8.3
-21.8
-
-
Palestine
-5.5
-6.5
-3.6
6.1
1.6
0.4
Total ESCWA region
4.9
2.3
1.3
4.7
6.3
5.4
United Arab Emirates
Lebanon
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The Impact of Instability
ESCWA’s membership can be divided into three
categories:
•oil producing countries;
•non-oil producing countries;
•LDC’s and conflict ridden countries (Iraq,
Palestine)
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Economic Impact
• Poor economic growth: Because of instability, the Arab world
has lost an annual average of 2 percentage points on growth since 1980.
Between 1990 to 2002 and as a result of instability, the region lost around
600 billion dollars in GDP.
• Flight of capital and investment: between 1999 & 2003
regional FDI inflows increased; yet, the share of the ESCWA region
in global FDI inflows is a mere 1.2 %
•
•
•
•
Reductions in productivity and in profits
Prevention of positive spillover effects
Limits free and easy movement of goods,
Influences levels of trade: despite rise in intra-regional
trade in recent years, the ESCWA region’s share of the world total
international trade is only 2.6%.
• Slow down in regional economic integration
• Increase in debt in some member countries
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Social Impact
• Increase in unemployment: unemployment in the region
was estimated at 16% (2003), among youth it was estimated
between 25 and 30%.
•
•
•
•
Unequal income distribution
Increase in brain drain
Increase in gender disparities
Weak social protection systems, increased
social vulnerability
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Overall Impact
• Deterioration in living standards in Iraq and
Palestine (inadequate health and nutrition conditions, lack of
food security especially among children, no access to sanitation,
power and water cuts)
• Shift in focus from development (Iraq and
Palestine), to humanitarian and relief efforts
• Slow reform processes (social, economic,
political)
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To maximize benefits of Globalization
• Enduring peace and stability: adequate political
and economic conditions
• Promotion of regional integration
• Socio-economic policies and strategies
• Reform
• Good governance
• Good management of globalization
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Major Achievements of ESCWA
Associated with Globalization
•
Three Transport Agreements:
 International Roads in the Arab Mashreq:
 International Railways in the Arab Mashreq:
 Memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the field of maritime
transport in the Arab Mashreq
•
Project on “Capacity-Building Through Cooperation in Developing Interregional Land and Land-Sea Transport Linkages”
•
Establishing National Transport and Trade Facilitation Committees (NTTFC) in
several ESCWA member countries
•
Preparing member countries for the WTO Ministerial Conferences (unified
Arab negotiation position)
•
Project on “Interregional Partnership for Promoting Trade as an Engine of
Growth through Knowledge Management and Information and Communication
Technologies, 2005-2007”
•
Flagship publication entitled "Annual Review of Developments in Globalization
and Regional Integration in the Countries of the ESCWA Region”
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• Developing a Regional Plan of Action (RPoA) to implement the
recommendations of the World Summit on the Information Society
(WSIS).
• Launching an initiative on Technology, Employment and Poverty
Alleviation (TEPA) aimed at generating employment opportunities and
reducing poverty in the Arab region.
• Implementing the Smart Community Projects (SCP) in selected Arab
countries aiming at building capacities in the local community and
introducing modalities to increase employment opportunities and
alleviate poverty.
• Pioneering project to link the electrical grids of the northern countries
of Western Asia (Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan,
Lebanon, Iraq, the Syrian Arab Republic and Turkey.
• Establishing national databases in selected member countries to
measure and compile data on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and
Transnational Corporations (TNC). (in collaboration with UNCTAD)
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• Promoting the Arab Gas Pipeline Project (1st phase included laying of
a 248 kilometer pipeline from Egypt to Jordan, and a 15 kilometer
marine pipeline in the Gulf of Aqaba and 2nd phase a 370 kilometer
pipeline through Jordanian territory)
• Establishing the Arab Integrated Water Resources Management
Network (AWARENET) in cooperation with the UNESCO to improve
the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management
(IWRM) concepts
• Co-Founding the Arab Water Council (AWC) which aims to promote a
better understanding and management of water resources in the Arab
region and to disseminate knowledge, enhance sharing of experience
and information
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Thank You
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