Transcript Introduction - University of Michigan

Iraq
Link to syllabus
Link to chronology
Link to Brookings Iraq Index
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraq%20Index/index.pdf
Iraq: cities and roads
Iraq: Topographical map
Iraq: Population by Religion & Ethnicity ~2000. (millions, and %)
Number
Percent
Moslem
23.2
93
Shi’a
14.0
56
Sunni
9.2
37
Christians
1.3
5
0.4
2
Yazidis
0.5
2
Arabs
18.0
71
Kurds
6.0
24
Assyrians
1.3
5
Chaldeans
Source:
Encyclopedia
of the
Orient
Iraq by
Provinces
Kirkuk
Source: Juan Cole’s blog
Iraq has 18 provinces. The three Kurdistan provinces and Kirkuk
did not participate in the January, 2009 elections. That left 14, four
of them largely Sunni Arab and 10 with Shiite majorities.
Arabian Family
Trees
King Faisal 2
1935-1958
King 1953-58
Kingdom was ruled in his
name by his Uncle, the Regent.
Died in a military coup, in which
all his close family died.
Abd al-Karim Qasim
1914-1963. Went to Military College
Leader of the 1958 coup against Faisal II and
the Hashemite regime. Was himself overthrown
and killed in a 1963 coup, led by Baathists.
His premiership marks an important transition
in Iraqi politics. He was said to be close to the
poorer sections of Iraqi society, and instituted
an agrarian reform. People inside and outside
(US, UK) the country felt he was too close to
the Communist Party. This period also marked
the high point of Nasserist influence in Iraq.
Saddam Hussein
Born 1937 (or ’39) to a
modest family in a village
near Tikrit, 100 miles to the
north of Baghdad. Entered the
military. Joined Ba’ath in
1956.
Becomes President in 1979.
Iraq-Iran war 1980-88.
Iraq-Kuwait 1990/91
US-led invasion March 2003.
Hussein was captured in late
2003, and executed in late
2006.
Iran-Iraq War 1979-1987
Flashing sections indicate limits of occupation of enemy territory
Basic Data on US-Iraq War
Link Iraq War.doc
Total cost to US ~$700 billion, or about $10 billion/month
US Troops were ~150,000. Surge in 2007 involved 30,000.
Troops from other countries initially was ~25,000; now zero.
US troop deaths ~4,300.
Estimates of Iraqi deaths; 100,000 to 1,000,000
US troops out by end of 2011.
Link to Brookings Institution’s Iraq Index http://www.brookings.edu/iraqindex
(numerous statistical measures relating to the war in Iraq and its consequences)
Cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars (costofwar.com)
Link to summary of other countries’ positions on the Iraq War
Iraqi Refugees, [BBC, Feb., 2007]
Iraqi Governments, Post-US Invasion (2003)
• Coalition Provisional Authority
• Interim Iraqi Government 2004 led to elections
in Jan. 2005: President Jalal Talabani (Kurd),
• Prime Minister was Ibrahim al-Jaafari (pushed out
because of weakness towards Kurds), succeeded by
Nuri al-Maliki (also of the Dawa party, described as
Shi’a Islamist). Was re-elected
Ethnic Cleansing in
Baghdad
Ultimate source is, I believe, New York Times
Nouri al-Maliki, 1950 Educated in Baghdad, has an MA
in Arabic Literature. His
grandfather was Minister of Educ.
under King Faisal I.
Prime Minister since 2006,
replacing Ibrahim al-Jaafari.
Had long opposed Saddam
Hussein. Leader of the Islamic
Dawa Party, which is part of the
United Iraqi Alliance,
predominantly Shia. As Prime Minister, he has exceeded
most observers’ expectations. Potential for re-appointment in 2014.
Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Al-Sistani. 1930Born in Mashhad, Iran into a family of
religious scholars. He came to Iraq to
study in Najaf under Ayatollah AbulQassim Khoei. He was accorded the
senior rank of mujtahid in 1961, and was
recognized as the pre-eminent Shi’a
cleric in Iraq in 1992.
His office oversees the annual spending
of hundreds of millions of dollars for
education and charities.
Moqtada al-Sadr 1973 Born in Baghdad into a prominent family of
Shi’a religious figures, some of whom are
Lebanese. He himself lacks the religious
training to be considered a senior religious
scholar (mujtahid).
The leader of the Sadrist movement, which
is strongest among poor Shi’i in Baghdad and southern Iraq.
This movement had a low presence in the 2009 municipal elections.
Why? Sadrist defeat by Iraqi army in 2008? tactical withdrawal,
waiting for departure of US troops?
Iraq: GDP/Capita (2005 US$)
8,000
800
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Data suggest that the country lost more due to the Iran/Iraq war, than US invasion.
Semi-log graph, made by merging WDI data from 1997 to present with earlier data
assembled by Angus Maddison.
Iraq’s Economic Performance
Source:
Yousif
Iraq’s current problems
The northern region is dominated by Kurds, who are acting very
independently, and have ¼ of nation’s oil. Final status of Kirkuk not se
Sectarian conflict (Sunni-Shia) in the western area (Anbar province)
in Baghdad, and several other cities. Fueled by an al-Qaeda affiliate.
There is also instability spilling over from the civil war in Syria.
Lack of growth of democratic practices.
The oil industry has
recovered, attracting
significant interest
from foreign companies.
Inflation is about 5%/yr.
Foreign
Petrol
Companies
in Iraq
Source: US EIA
Bringing the marshes back
Source: NYT March 8, 2005
Struggling to Reclaim the Wetlands
Iraq marshes map
Marketing Melons in
Baghdad, 1932
Source: The Photography of
Kamil Chadirji
Marsh girls. Near Baghdad, 1931
Source: The Photography of Kamil Chadirji
Iraqi Marshes, 1940s
Marshes 1
Marshes 2
Marshes 3
Marshes 5
Marshes 6
Marshes 7
Iraqi Benchmarks
Source: NYT
Sept 5, 2007
Iraqi Benchmarks II
Deaths in Iraq Since 2004
Source: NYT December 19, 2006
Doctors in Iraq
Source: Brookings Institution, “Iraq Index.” Downloaded November, 2009
Cobbler. Baghdad, 1928
Poll: Approval rating for Al-Maliki
Total:
43%
33%
40%
Source: Brookings Institution, “Iraq Index.” Downloaded November, 2009
55%
Poll Feel safe in neighborhood?
Aggregate:
26%
26%
Source: Brookings Institution, “Iraq Index.” Downloaded November, 2009
37%
59%
Iraq GDP/capita
Iraq
8,000
7,000
Real GDP/capita
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Source: WDI (WDI is currently (late 2009) providing minimal data)
Ethnic Cleansing in
Baghdad.
Map of 19th Century Middle East