Transcript Document

Myanmar Opium Survey 2004
Opium poppy cultivation in 2004 estimated to have
decreased to 44,200 ha
29% decrease since 2003
66% cumulative decrease since 1998 and 73% since 1996
180,000
160,000
-73%
140,000
100,000
80,000
44,200
62,200
81,400
105,000
108,700
89,500
130,300
155,150
163,000
154,070
146,600
0
165,800
20,000
153,700
40,000
160,000
60,000
150,100
ha
120,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
US Department of State
GoUM - UNODC
The Union of Myanmar
(former Burma)
Shan
State
• Population : 52 million
• GDP / capita: ~US$ 160
• 2nd opium producer in the world after Afghanistan
• Opium Poppy cultivation concentrated in the Shan
State
Decrease mostly in Northern Shan State and in the Wa region
Region
Shan State
2004
North Shan 6,000
South Shan 10,500
East Shan
7,750
Wa region 16,750
Outside Shan State
3,200
Total
44,200
Change
over 2003
-69%
0%
16%
-18%
-36%
-29%
METHODOLOGY OF THE 2004 OPIUM SURVEY
SHAN STATE
In the Shan State:
- 59 high-resolution satellite
images (IKONOS, 4-meter
multispectral)
- 68 opium fields measured
- 598 villages surveyed
- 6,592 households interviewed
Opium poppy cultivation in the Golden Triangle since 1990:
cumulative reduction of 77% between 1991 and 2004
250,000
210,400
hectares
200,000
-77%
150,000
128,600
123,100
96,300
100,000
74,200
48,800
50,000
1990
1992
Myanmar
1994
Lao PDR
1996
1998
Thailand
2000
Vietnam
2002
2004
Trend
2004 Myanmar opium production: record low at 370 tons
 Potential heroin production decreased to 37 tons
(-54% compared to 2003)
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
-54%
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
UNODC - GoUM
UNODC
1791
1583
1664 1,760 1,676 1,303
895
1,087 1,097
2002
2003
2004
828
810
370
No indication of increase in ATS production
Reported seizure of ATS in Myanmar
1,200
1,000
kg
k
g
800
600
400
200
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Reported seizure of ATS in neighbouring countries
excluding China
including China
12,000
35,000
12,000
10,000
30,000
10,000
25,000
8,000
kg
20,000
kg
kg
8,000
6,000
6,000
15,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
5,000
2002 2003
4,000
10,000
-
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1995
Opium farm-gate prices increased by 80%
Mong Pawk Opiun Price Monitor
All Shan State
234
US$/kg
133
US$/kg
2002
130
US$/kg
2003
2004
Total potential
farm-gate value of opium in 2004:
US$87 million
(1% – 2 % of GDP)
How does opium poppy cultivation stand up against other
income generation activities?
• 260,000 households involved in opium poppy cultivation
Non-Opium family
276 US$/year
300
250
Opium family
214 US$/year
US$
200
150
81
276
100
50
133
(62%)
0
Opium Sale
Other sale
UNODC’s Response:
Addressing Basic Human Needs
 Opium farmers rely on poppy income to offset chronic rice
deficits
 2005 opium ban in the Wa will exacerbate poverty of farmers,
2003 ban in Kokang had dramatic consequences
 UNODC aims to address the basic human needs of poppy
farmers and their families
 Food security
 Medical care
 Education
Five Key Goals - UNODC Response (KOWI
Programme):
1. Humanitarian
•
2.
Sustainability
•
3.
Reductions without alternatives open up the door for
human rights abuses – forced relocation and labor
Domestic political reform
•
5.
Consolidating achievements by offering alternatives
Human rights
•
4.
Providing food security for the affected poor
Current drug situation breeds instability and hinders
political transition
Regional security
•
Drugs create transnational problems from HIV/AIDS to
corruption and money laundering