Transcript Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions

The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low
Emissions – Government Foresight Process and Its Evaluations
Sirkka Heinonen
Finland Futures Research Centre
Helsinki Office
University of Turku
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Background
•Since 1990’s each Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive
foresight report on major future challenges
•Prime Minister’s Office is in charge of work for each foresight report,
carried out in co-operation with relevant ministries and other public
organizations
•A large group of experts (research institutes, private companies, NGOs)
is consulted during the process
•2008-2009 government foresight report on climate and energy policy
•Several studies on issues concerning the effects and ways to prevent or
adapt to climate change were commissioned
•Things investigated: prerequisites for limiting climate change globally,
cost-effectiveness of climate policy, mainstreaming of climate
perspective
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Scenario process
• Government foresight report included a scenario process
• To depict 4 possible end states and corresponding paths that would
lead Finland to Low-carbon Society in 2050
• Purpose: to reflect various possibilities to achieve sustainable future
while maintaining the current standard of living
•Comparison of scenarios: discussion which paths are favourable
• A Priori Desired goals for 2050:
1. development that will contribute to limiting the rise in global
average temperature to 2 C° at the most
2. Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 % from
levels of 1990
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
The use of backcasting as a Scenario method
•The use of backcasting was specifically predetermined
• The envisioned future state was set (accomplishing two-degree
target without significant loss in welfare)
• opposite of forecasting – predicting the future based on current trend
analysis (using trend extrapolation) “from now to then”
• backcasting envisions futures from opposite direction “from then to
now” = coming back from the future to the present
• aims to illustrate the logical path that is required in order to reach a
given future state = what has to precede
• A desirable future end state is imagined and visualised, not as
continuation of present trends, but as a giant leap directly to the future
(with a subsequent link of logic steps preceding it)
Giant Leap to Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Backcasting Scenario
The use of backcasting as a method notable in two aspects
1) by its nature backcasting scenarios are typically normative (targetorientated) i.e. adopted for search for preferred futures (Robinson
1982)
2) growing interest in BCS in Finland notable, but only a few made
• Backcasting approach frequently used in countries like
the Netherlands, Canada, Australia (Dunlop 2009), and
Sweden (Åkerman 2011)
• BC applied especially for climate, energy and transport scenarios
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Scenario process
A number of basic assumptions based on previous research
were set before the scenario work (to apply behind all development paths)
1. The population in Finland is assumed to grow from the current 5.3
million to 5.7million by 2050
2. The Finnish economy will grow markedly by 2050, but the structure
of the economy can change
3. Low-carbon technology will improve significantly in all sectors by
2050
4. The prices of fossil fuels will rise and the cost of utilising renewable
energy sources will decline
5. The Finns’ values will change and preparedness to take action to
restrict emissions will increase
6. Climate change will alter the conditions in Finland by 2050: the
need for heating energy will diminish and the agricultural growing
period will become longer
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Scenario process
Methodology
• All stages were conducted within a timeframe of 4 months
•The process was carried out as a concise Delphi process consisting of
2 rounds of questionnaires and 2 future workshops
•These 4 elements formed an integral process where in each stage a
deeper understanding of future-affecting socio-technical
interconnections emerged
•Thus enabling a more precise view of the possible paths towards
sustainable futures
• a team of experts invited by PMO 140 people wide range of expertise
relevant to climate an energy issues (researchers, officials, business
repr, NGO)
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Progress of the scenario process
Phase
Time
Method
Goal
Material gathering and
final design of the study
September
2008
Literary review,
environmental
scanning
Review on the background reports,
specifying the end state, designing 1st
questionnaire. Defining the expert group
involved in the workshops.
1st Delphi round
October
2008
Delphi: online survey
for expert group
(Webropol)
Inviting & informing the expert group.
Collecting views on the most important
variables on which climate and energy
policy should focus.
Futures workshop
October
2008
Futures workshop,
ACTVOD – futures
process
Building alternative scenarios that
fulfill the two-degree target.
2nd Delphi round
November
2008
Delphi: online survey
for expert group
(Webropol)
Testing and specifying the development
paths constructed in the 1st workshop:
what actions and which actors play key
roles. 4 distinctive scenarios are
constructed.
Futures workshop
November
2008
Futures workshop,
ACTVOD – futures
process
Analysing and specifying the 4
designed scenarios.
Final report
December
2008
Final report in
electronic format
Report gathers together the results of
the process: 4 different paths for the
desired end state.
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Scenario work
The first Round of Delphi
•The first Delphi Round: to collect views of the expert group to provide
a basis for scenario work
• most important questions:
1) estimations on the importance and possibilities of the most
important energy consuming sectors (transport, housing, industry)
in cutting down GHG’s
2) how much trouble the Finns are willing to saccept in exchange for
more sustainable future
Many open questions for explaining how and through what kind of
mechanism the future unfolds.
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Scenario work
The first Futures Workshop
•Task was to collect views and visions on the ways to achieve the low
emission future.
• one day in three consecutive phases:
1) The imaginary phase (futures wheel),
2) The systematising phase (futures table), and
3) The explanatory phase (drafting an array of scenarios for
sustainable Finland 2050)
• a lot of material produced to form the building blocks for the four
scenarios that were to be determined as a result of the whole foresight
process.
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Scenario work
The second Round of Delphi
• Based on the material from the preceding two phases: 1st Delhi Round + 1st
Futures Workshop
• developed further to form four distinctive scenario drafts (FFRC team as
back office work)
• scenario drafts introduced to the panellists
• to assess their qualities: credibility, desirability, as well as obstacles and
drivers for realisation of each scenario
• to improve the drafted scenarios
• to fill the gaps in the information needed to form a solid general view of
the future
• additional questions focused on possible development paths in key
energy consuming sectors
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Scenario work
The second Futures Workshop
•Task was to envision necessary steps and actions leading to the
desired futures
• Method was to come back and forth with the present and the future
•Goal was to view, assess and complete the scenarios
•Final results were the 4 scenarios that fulfil the targets of reducing
GHG emissions by at least 80 % from levels of 1990
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
The four final scenarios
1. Efficiency Revolution
(concentration on diminishing energy consumption)
2. Sustainable Daily Mile
(concentration on restraining urban sprawl)
3. Be Self-Sufficient (concentration on self-sufficiency)
4. Technology is the Key
(business-as-usual scenario, solutions relying on
decentralized energy production and increased use
of nuclear power)
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Description of the constructed scenarios
A
B
C
D
Efficiency
Revolution
Sustainable Daily Mile
Be Selfsufficient
Technology is the
Key
Eco-efficiency,
diminishing
energy
consumption,
Restraining urban sprawl
and diminishing personal
transport needs
Business as usual,
relying on heavy
industry
Economy
Stable growth
Stable growth
Self-sufficiency,
relying on
home-grown
renewable
materials
Slow growth
Basis of
economic
structure
(industry)
Energy scarce
service sector,
high-tech
products and high
skill-level services
most important
sources of
income, no
energy intensive
industry
Demand and supply of
small-scale local products
and “at-home” services has
increased significantly.
Infrastructure planning and
ecological wood building
booming areas. Domestic
demand for massconsumption goods has
fallen, some export of these
goods (and jobs in these
industries) still exist.
Strong
agriculture- and
forest industry
with many
innovative highvalue products
(not just grain
and paper)
Both knowledge- and
resource as well as
energy-intensive
businesses; knowledge
intensive services highly
concentrated in the
south of the country.
Middle- and northern
parts of the country live
from agriculture, forest
industry and mining
SCENARIO
/VARIABLE
Leading idea
Stable growth
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Description of the constructed scenarios
SCENARIO
/VARIABLE
Buildings
.A
B
C
D
Efficiency
Revolution
Sustainable
Daily Mile
Be Self-sufficient Technology is the
Key
Very strict norms on
energy consumption
for both old and new
buildings, all new
buildings are
plusenergy buildings
Tight energy norms.
Wood used
extensively in
building. Versatile
communal spaces
(baths, recreation
spaces) in buildings
make apartment
buildings a real
option for detatched
houses.
Tight energy norms.
Buildings made from
wood and other
domestically
available materials.
All suitable buildings
produce energy
(solar, geothermal,
biomass, wind).
Gardens and
greenhouses in
residential areas.
Some development in
energy norms.
Average living space
and total area of
heated buildings has
increased significantly.
People commonly own
more than one
property (typically a
city apartment or a
town house and a
holiday residence or
cottage in the
countryside)
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Description of the constructed scenarios
SCENARIO
/VARIABLE
Transport
.A
B
C
D
Efficiency
Revolution
Sustainable
Daily Mile
Be Self-sufficient Technology is
the Key
Hugely increased
telework,
telepresence and
virtual travel has
lowered the need for
personal
transportation
considerably
Passenger and
Passenger
industry transport
transport with
needs diminished.
electrical vehicles
Everyday personal
traffic increasingly by
foot, by bike or by
improved public
transport systems.
With goods transport
rapid development of
intelligent logistic
chains has lowered
the demand.
Transport needs
grown, both
passenger and
freight traffic
increased
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Description of the constructed scenarios
SCENARIO
A
B
C
D
/VARIABLE
Efficiency
Revolution
Sustainable Daily Be Self-sufficient
Mile
Technology is
the Key
Energy
consumption
Consumption halved from
2008 level. Dramatical
improvements in energy
efficiency and elastic price
system the main reasons
behind decreased
consumption.
Decreased by ¼ from 2008
level. Transportation and
buildings require
significantly less energy
than in 2008
Decreased by 1/3 from
2008 level. New houses
and buildings in rural areas
either passive or
plusenergy houses and/or
relying on renewables.
at the 2008 level or
slightly higher
Energy
production
all energy produced with
renewable sources
50% renewable, 50%
nuclear energy (use of
nuclear power has
increased slightly from
2008)
75% renewable, rest with
nuclear energy
share of renewables less
than 50%, use of nuclear
energy has increased
clearly, CCS technologies
in use
Urban
structure
Cohesive, in urban areas
people move closer to
central cities, in the
countryside villages grow
Highly cohesive around
local town centres where
residential areas are
located densely within a
walking distance from the
local centre
Dispersed accross the
country. Aim for as
extensive self-sufficiency
as possible guides the
structural development
Dispersed in urban areas,
current trend where
people move further
away from city centres in
search of larger houses,
continues
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Description of the constructed scenarios
SCENARIO
A
B
C
D
/VARIABLE
Efficiency
Revolution
Sustainable
Daily Mile
Be Self-sufficient
Technology is
the Key
Change in
values
Not a great change, the
biggest change is the
increased willingness to
adapt and take advantage
of solutions produced by
the development in ICT
Transformation away from
culture of massconsumption. Wasteful
behaviour in both the
private consumers and
industry (especially retail)
is considered undesirable
Environmental values and
understanding of nature’s
processes highly valued.
Responsibility for one’s own
welfare and actions has
increased.
Very little change:
preserving equal rights for
everyone to choose one’s
own way of living (where
and how to live, what,
how and how much to
consume, etc.) the most
important value
Relation
towards
environment
Nature as the most
important asset. Preemptive nature
conservation
Nature as a source of
admiration and recreation
Nature as a partner
Cleaning up the mess
made as much as
possible
Relation
towards
technology
New technology as a lever
and enabler
Reshaping old; finding
New technology as a lever
new intelligent ways to use and enabler, mimicking
old technologies
nature, industrial ecology
Search for innovations to
boost economic growth
and improve the state of
the environment
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
The core message about the factors influencing
whether or not the set targets will be attained
• considerable changes required in attitudes and ways of acting of
both the citizens, as well as different industries
• areas facing the biggest pressure to change: energy intensive
industry, polluting energy industry (esp. peat), transport and logistics,
construction, meat production, and travelling
• PESSIMISM most often mentioned hindrances: cynicism (small
country – global problem, why bother), scattered community structure,
motoring as everyman’s right, one family houses as ideal
• OPTIMISM (positive factors in Finnish society favouring the
attainment of climate policy goals): Finns’ close relation to nature,
genuine will to work for the environment, obedience to law, good
technological knowhow, abundant resources of biofuels, infrastructure
from forest to industry already in place, Finns already recycle
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
External and Internal Evaluations
• Internal evaluation of the effectiveness of the preparation process, in
general and the usability of foresight in policy planning
•Two external evaluations:
1) Official statement by Committee for the Future (2011): support and
attention on three aspects i. forest, food, water, biopolitics; ii.
Innovations, courage, pioneering; iii. Economy, employment,
entrepreneurship, wellbeing. Special focus on green growth (esp.
wood production and exports, job creation).
Criticism: why the success of the Copenhagen Climate
Agreement chosen as the only starting point?
2) Expert evaluation (Wilenius 2011): extent of constructing the
scenarios unique and pioneering, recommendation for further use,
how scenario techniques could deal with long-term goals and path
dependences in more detail, Minister of Climate and Energy for next
gov.! Deeper focus on economic implications of climate and energy
policy (employment, industrialisation, investments, and education
policy)
Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions
Conclusions
• Retrospective event by Prime Minister’s Office March 29, 2011.
Government Climate Policy Specialist Oras Tynkkynen:
1) major breakthrough achievement to have Finland committed to
reducing emissions by at least 80% by 2050
2) Wide public debate launched on low emissions communities and low
carbon society – long-term narratives with one robust national goal:
Finland of low emissions 2050!
• Possibility of degrowth economy was raised during the scenario work,
but was not given enough chance to be further discussed in 2008
• Challenging task: scenario work needs time and resources!
• Open question: how various ministries will connect themselves in
implementing the recommendations and conclusions in government
foresight report
• Measures and steps for reaching the goal will continue to be discussed
Thank You!
Sirkka Heinonen
Professor of Futures Studies
Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)
University of Turku
Helsinki Office: Korkevuorenkatu 25 A 2
00130 Helsinki
Head of Future of Media and Communications
sirkka.heinonen at tse.fi
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