Transcript Emerging challenges of environmental and climate change in Europe

Emerging challenges of environmental
and climate change in Europe
Graeme I Pearman
January 17, 2013
Director, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty Ltd
Adjunct
Senior Res. Fellow, Monash University
Europe in the 21st Century
Board, The Climate Institute
Emerging challenges of environmental
and climate change in Europe
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January 17, 2013
The finite world we live in
The EU circumstance
Lessons for sustainable strategies
Living with myths & prejudices
Europe in the 21st Century
Beyond growth:
Why our economy is killing the planet
New Scientist Oct 18, 2008
Drivers
– Population
– GDP
– Foreign investment
Demand
– Motor vehicles
– Paper consumption
– Fisheries exploitation
– Water use
Impacts
– CO2 concentration
– Northern hemisphere temperature
– Ozone depletion
– Species extinction
– Loss of tropical rainforest and woodland
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Global average temperature is rising
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Europe in the 21st Century
Global Average Sea-level Rise
Based on Church and White (2011)
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Europe in the 21st Century
Arctic sea ice extent
(Area of ocean with at least 15% sea ice)
A safe operating space for humanity
Current
position
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Safe operating
space
Europe in the 21st Century
Rockström et al. (2009)
Nature 461, Sept.
Energy consumption compared with net
primary production of vegetation
New Guinea
Brazil
Australia
New Zealand
Sweden
World
US
China
UK
Japan
R Korea
Singapore
10
100
1000
10,000
100,000
Energy consumption as a percentage of net primary production
January 17, 2013
Europe in the 21st Century
Unpublished data of Pearman (2013) not
for circulation
Emerging challenges of environmental and
climate change in Europe
•
•
•
•
January 17, 2013
The finite world we live in
The EU circumstance
Lessons for sustainable strategies
Living with myths & prejudices
Europe in the 21st Century
Precipitation
changes
Increases this century
Decreases this century
IPCC Working Group I, Chapter 11, (2007)
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Europe in the 21st Century
Best estimate of rainfall changes by 2100
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Europe in the 21st Century
Estimate of runoff changes by 2020 & 2070
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Europe in the 21st Century
http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics
/ar4-wg2/jpg/fig-12-1.jpg
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Europe in the 21st Century
http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics
/ar4-wg2/jpg/fig-12-3.jpg
People and the Planet, Royal Society, April 2012
1. International community must bring 1.3 billion people
living on less than $1.25 per day out of absolute poverty
2. Most developed & the emerging economies must
stabilise & then reduce material consumption levels
3. Reproductive health & voluntary family planning
programmes urgently require political leadership &
financial commitment
4. Population & the environment should not be considered
as two separate issues
5. Governments should realise the potential of
urbanisation to reduce material consumption &
environmental impact through efficiency measures
January 17, 2013
Europe in the 21st Century
People and the Planet, Royal Society April 2012
6. Financial & non-financial barriers must be overcome to
achieve high-quality primary & secondary education for
all the world’s young, ensuring equal opportunities for
girls & boys
7. Natural & social scientists need to increase research
efforts on the interactions between consumption,
demographic change & environmental impact
8. National Governments should accelerate the
development of comprehensive wealth measures
9. Collaboration between National Governments is needed
to develop socio-economic systems & institutions that
are not dependent on continued material consumption
growth
January 17, 2013
Europe in the 21st Century
January 17, 2013
Europe in the 21st Century
Emerging challenges of environmental
and climate change in Europe
•
•
•
•
January 17, 2013
The finite world we live in
The EU circumstance
Lessons for sustainable strategies
Living with myths & prejudices
Europe in the 21st Century
Sustainability:
• The vision: a future worth choosing
– A sustainable planet, just society, growing
economy
• The state of sustainable development
– Not a destination, but a dynamic process of
adaptation, learning and action
– Recognizing, understanding and acting on
interconnections between the economy, society
and the natural environment
Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A future worth choosing
The report of the United Nations Secretary-General’s High-level Panel on Global Sustainability
January 17, 2013
Europe in the 21st Century
The issue of sustainability
• Can be a bit scary and daunting because:
– Its complex, uncertain & all embracing
– But most of all because it challenges the way
we are, our expectations, our infrastructure &
our investments
• But change can be the opportunity to lead
the way, build win-win outcomes,
contribute to the world we wish to leave for
our children & grandchildren
January 17, 2013
Europe in the 21st Century
The climate change issue
Energy
supply/demand
Aspirations
Efficiency
Energy
demand
GDP
Climate
change
Emissions
Choice of
technology
Perceptions, conscious
or unconscious of:
• Wellbeing
• Success
Culture,
education,
January
July
28, 2011
17,
2013
advertising, promotions
Climate Climate
system impacts
• Vested interests
• Natural resources
• Ignorance
• Market failure
Europe in the 21st Century
Human
health
• Risk assessment
• Beliefs
• Ignorance
• Sectoral interests
Pearman (2012):
Aust.J.Environ.Managment
Characteristics of promising responses
for addressing sustainability include (1):
1. Strategic thinking:
–
Not stuck with the notion that the way it has been is
the way of the future; grasping the opportunities this
creates
2. Leadership:
–
There will be risks and opportunities; risk has to be
managed; being an early starter has advantages
3. Flexibility:
–
Uncertainty is a normal state to be managed; manage
the risks through ongoing learning, diversity &
nimbleness
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Europe in the 21st Century
Characteristics of promising responses
for addressing sustainability include (2):
3. Markets:
–
Use them but accept that there are externalities;
balance markets approaches with non-market tools
4. Reflection:
–
Consider how our expectations, culture, history,
education, market economy, advertising, etc. impact
on our behaviour/institutions. Much of this is
subconscious & changeable; by bringing motivations
to the surface we can challenge their validity
5. Holism:
–
Rarely are solutions without the potential for cobenefits or dis-benefits. Be wary of sectoralism &
maximise value by seeking the former
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Europe in the 21st Century
Emissions peak:
2015
Global mean temperature change (oC)
Temperatures peak:
~2065
3
EU target above
which change is
considered
“dangerous”
2
Uncertainty range:
▬ 10th percentile
▬ 50th percentile
▬ 90th percentile
1
2000
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2100
2200
2300
Europe in the 21st Century
2400
Parry et al. (2009). Overshoot, adapt and
recover. Nature 458, 1102-1103
Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (Pg C yr-1)
10
Global financial crisis
100
8
Asian financial crisis
Collapse of the FSU
6
150
US savings &
loans crisis
Oil crisis
200
4
1970
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1980
1990
2000
2010
Carbon intensity of the economy (g C per $US)
Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009
global financial crisis
Europe in the 21st Century
Peters et al. (2011): Nature Climate Change: (2011) DOI:doi:10.1038/nclimate1332
Member
State
EU Group
of 15
countries
Targets 20082012 under the
Kyoto Protocol
and effort sharing
Source: EU Insights, December 2007
Kyoto Target
% of 1990
Austria
-13.0
Belgium
-7.5
Denmark
-21.0
Finland
0
France
0
Germany
-21.0
Greece
+25.0
Ireland
+13.0
Italy
-6.5
Luxembourg
-28.0
Netherlands
-6.0
Portugal
+27.0
Spain
+15.0
Sweden
+4.0
UK
-12.5
Bulgaria, Czech Republic,
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
-8.0
Hungary, Poland
-6.0
Cyprus, Multa
Developed counties
Australia
No target
-5.0
+8.0
Selected EU policies and measures
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EU Emissions trading scheme operational since January, 2005
CDM and Joint Implementation credits since November, 2005
Monitoring mechanisms since March, 2004
Motor Challenge Programs operational since, 2003
– Emissions for cars 2009
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Energy labelling of household appliances, 1996
Promote:
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Electricity from renewables 2003
Bio-fuels for transport 2004
Cogeneration framework 2006
End-use efficiency 2006
Intelligent Energy Europe, 2007-2013
Minimum performance standards for building, 2006
Eco-design for energy-using products, 2007
Action plan of energy efficiency, 2006
Efficiency permits for industrial/agricultural installations 2007
Campaigns
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“Save” component of “Intelligent Energy Europe”
“Sustainable Energy Europe”
“Climate Change Awareness”
Shift from road to rail and water
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/eu_climate_change_progr.pdf
“It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of
human prosperity depends on how successfully
we tackle the two central energy challenges facing
us today:
• securing the supply of reliable and affordable
energy and
• effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon,
efficient and environmentally benign system of
energy supply
What is needed is little short of an energy
International Energy Agency
revolution”
Emerging challenges of environmental
and climate change in Europe
•
•
•
•
January 17, 2013
The finite world we live in
The EU circumstance
Lessons for sustainable strategies
Living with myths & prejudices
Europe in the 21st Century
The Real World
Individuals interpret
the real world
Community at large
Experts in the community,
scientists, economists, engineers, etc.
Constructivism
Ideas of the way the world is, constructed
from & heavily influenced by:
• Observations
• Culture, rules
• Education
• Belief, myths → Opinion
Rationalism
Ideas of the way the world is based on:
• Formal observations
• Hypothesis testing
• Experimentation
• Deduction
Holistic rationalism
The “non-reality world”
Based on the integration of
disciplinary descriptions
Filtered by, vested interests, special pleading, conservatism, etc.
Policy development
“The great enemy of the truth is very often
not the lie -- deliberate, contrived and
dishonest, but the myth, persistent,
persuasive, and unrealistic. Belief in myths
allows the comfort of opinion without the
discomfort of thought”
John F. Kennedy (1917 - 1963)
January
July
28, 2011
17, 2013
Renewable
Energy
Australian
Europe in the
21st in
Century
Australian Energy and Utility Summit ‘11
Leunig, The Age, July 9, 2011
January 17, 2013
Europe in the 21st Century