Transcript presentation - Command and Control Research Portal

Adding Culture to
Command Decisions
Robert Woodley, Michael Gosnell, and Warren Noll
21st Century Systems, Incorporated
June 17-19, 2008
UNCLASSIFIED
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. AEDGE, AgentKind,
and Unique Tools for Complex Systems are registered trademarks of 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Outline
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21CSI Introduction
Problem Space
Game Formulation
Initial Data Source
Translating Data to Probabilities
Example
Conclusions and Future Development
UNCLASSIFIED
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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About 21st Century Systems
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21st Century Systems, Inc.® (21CSI®) is a pioneer in agent-based
decision support systems for time- & mission-critical uses
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Veteran-owned, founded in 1996
Advance decision support tools with broad, highly diverse applications
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Military Force Protection and Command & Control
Transportation & Logistics Management
Energy Assurance
Data Mining/Data Characterization
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2005 & 2006 Inc. 500 List Selectee
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Military Small Business Innovative
Research Success Story
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UNCLASSIFIED
100% SBIR commercialization index
10 Offices located throughout U.S.
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514% growth rate over last 3 years
Top Secret Facility Clearance
21CSI® software technology patented with
extensive, ongoing internal R&D
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Cultural Significance
"We can no longer bypass the
population centers if we expect to
win."
General George William Casey, Jr. (Brookings Institution December 2007)
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Interaction must occur locally
Local culture can vary
How to incorporate cultural knowledge?
UNCLASSIFIED
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Threat Response Framework
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Provide a dynamic game-theoretic
framework for analyzing threat response
Anticipate responses
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UNCLASSIFIED
(LA) Lethal Action
(VA) Violent (non-lethal) Action
(NA) Non-Violent Action
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Game Theory Review
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Simultaneous vs. Sequential Games
Payoff Matrix
UNCLASSIFIED
Extensive Form
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Zero-Sum and Payoff
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Player gains at expense of other
Monetary payoff?
Loss of life?
Probabilistic Payoff
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Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Framework Basics
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Probabilistic Payoff
Extensive Form
Sequential Game
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How is culture incorporated?
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Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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World Value Survey
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Around 80 countries (6 continents)
Local researchers
Questionnaires covering hundreds of
aspects
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UNCLASSIFIED
Social
Cultural
Religious
Political
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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World Value Survey Questions
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Have you, might you, or would you never participate in …
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Please choose the one which best describes your own opinion.
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Signing a petition
Joining in Boycotts
Attending lawful demonstrations
Joining unofficial strikes
Occupying buildings or factories
The entire way our society is organized must be radically changed by
revolutionary action
Our society must be gradually improved by reforms
Our present society must be valiantly defended against all subversive
forces
Of course, we all hope that there will not be another war, but if it
were to come to that, would you be willing to fight for your country?
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©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Preliminary Probabilities
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Baseline generated from WVS answers
Response to each type of initiating action
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Violent action response to initiating non-violent action
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V 138
VA  50% 
1 V 138
answer  HaveDone   answer  MightDo
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2 V 134
V 134
V 138
 answer  {}
V 134
UNCLASSIFIED
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Preliminary Probabilities
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Response to each type of initiating action
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Responses to initiating violent actions
UNCLASSIFIED
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Individual Matrices
UNCLASSIFIED
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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USA Initiating Action
Against Mexico
UNCLASSIFIED
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Mexico Initiating Action
Against USA
UNCLASSIFIED
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Conclusions
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A culturally-aware response framework
WVS data was used to automatically provide a
baseline payoff matrix
Multiple payoff matrices provides insight into the
likelihood of nonviolent, violent, and lethal
response actions
A tool which dynamically provides tangible,
quantitative values of the probabilities of each
outcome from an interaction between groups
UNCLASSIFIED
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Future Development
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WVS data only provides a starting point
More detailed group analysis (more
detailed than countries)
Automated methods for payoff calculations
UNCLASSIFIED
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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Questions?
Dr. Robert Woodley
Ft. Leonard Wood, MO
[email protected]
(573) 329-8526
www.21CSI.com
UNCLASSIFIED
Proprietary to 21CSI
©2005-2008 21st Century Systems, Inc.
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