Transcript Overview of Chinese Taipei`s Energy Sector

Overview of Chineses Taipei’s
Energy Sector:
Current Status and Plans for Future
Development
Huang, Yophy *
Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey
Peng, Chieh-Yu
Content
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Introduction and Country Overview
Energy and Environmental Policy
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
Model Results for Business As Usual
Case and Other Scenarios
Future Plans
Introduction
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Western edge of the Pacific Ocean,
South of Japan,
North of the Philippines,
160 km off the southeast coast of
mainland Chain across the Taiwan Strait
Landscape
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2/3 is Mountianous, only ¼ is arable
Rivers are short, but useful for power
generation
23 million population on 36,000 km2 one
of the most densely populated
With biodiversity
Economy
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Foreign trade has been the engine of Taiwan's
economic growth (FX Reserve ranks 4th )
A leading producer of high-technology goods
GDP (2008) = US$ 392 billion, per capita GDP =
US$ 17,116
Agriculture accounts for 2%, Services at 73%, and
Industry around 25%.
Unemployment Rate (Jul. 2010) is 5.20%; lower
than 2% before 1990.
Development relies on further transformation to a
high technology and service-oriented economy
Growth
rate
year
6.38
1995
5.54
1996
5.48
1997
3.47
1998
5.97
1999
5.80
2000
-1.65
2001
5.26
2002
3.67
2003
6.19
2004
4.70
2005
0
5.44
2006
-2
5.98
2007
Eco Growth Rates Overtime
10
8
6
%
4
-4
year
0.73
2008
-1.91
2009
8.2~10.1 2010(f)
4.5 2011(f)
11
20
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
20
01
20
99
19
97
19
19
95
2
Energy Facts
Share of world population: 0.3%
Land area: 0.06% of total
Share of world energy consumption: 1.0%
Share of world electricity consumption:1.3%
Per capita power consumption: 9,550 KWh
Rank 13th in the world
~ 3.7 times of world average
Total Amount of CO2 Emission: 261 MT
Rank 22nd around the world
~ 1.0 % of world total
2005 Data from IEA Statistics of 2007
Energy Policy
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With scarce natural resources, thus depends
almost exclusively on imported energy (99%).
Formal energy policy framework formulated in
1973, after the first energy crisis.
In the latest revision, the goal of Taiwan’s
energy policy has been set to establish a liberal,
orderly, efficient, clean, and sustainable energy
demand and supply system
Energy Authority
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Energy Commission under the Ministry of
Economic Affairs (MOEA) in 1979.
In 2004, upgraded as the Bureau of Energy (BOE)
Formulate and implement national energy policies
such as the "Energy Management Act (EMA)",
"Electricity Act (EA)", "Petroleum Administration
Act (PAA)", "Regulations Governing Administration
of Gas Utilities (RGAGU)", and other energyrelated regulations.
Energy Authority
BOE also :
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Guides the operations of energy
enterprises
Evaluates energy supply and demand
Establishes energy database system
Promotes energy conservation programs
Implements R&D on energy tech.
Promotes international energy cooperation.
Main Approaches*
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Stabilizing energy supply,
Increasing energy efficiency,
Deregulating energy markets,
Emphasizing energy security and
environmental protection,
Enhancing energy R&D,
Promoting energy education
Environmental Protection
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Environmental protection policies developed later.
In 1987, "Environmental Protection
Administration" (EPA) was established as a
formal administration.
The EPA mandate includes: air quality and noise
control, water quality , waste management,
environmental sanitation and toxic substance
management, supervision, and evaluation, and
many others.
Focus on Climate Change
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Many Environmental Levies/Charges
implemented in the1990s.
The EPA has been actively responding to the
UNFCC.
Currently facilitating the legislation
of“Greenhouse Gases Reduction Act (GHGRA)”
Tentative goal of the reduction of CO2 emission:
return to the level of 2008 between 2016 and
2020; return to the level of 2000 (=214.5 Mt) in
2025.
The
Higher Profile of
Energy/Environmental Authorities
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The BOE will be upgraded as the Ministry of
Economy and Energy,
The EPA will be upscaled to the Department of
Environment and Resources.
Taiwan’s core principle of energy policy has
been shifted to the balancing of the “three
Es”, seeking a “Win-Win-Win Solution” for
energy security, environment protection, and
economic competitiveness.
National Energy Conference
The National Energy Conference (April, 2009) further
developed the following four major policies :
 Sustaining energy development and establishing energy
security for a low carbon society;
 Developing energy technology and applying energy
conservation and carbon dioxide reduction technology;
 Promoting efficient energy management and setting up
green power and a concentrated non-energy industry;
and
 Designing energy price and an open energy market for
reasonable cost-based rates
Draft GHG Reduction Act
Will control GHG emission in three phases:
 Phase 1: emission required to conduct
GHG inventories, verification, and
registration
 Phase 2: performance standards would be
implemented to control per unit
consumption or per unit product emission
 Phase 3: a cap-and-trade system would be
implemented
Renewable Energy
Development Act (2009)
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Give credits to the total amount of renewable energy
in the range of 6,500MW to 10,000MW,
Establish funds to subsidize renewable energy, to set
up purchase rates,
Design procurement rates for different renewable
resources,
To give incentives to highly potential self-faculties,
Assist renewable energy owners in acquiring land.
Based on government target, installed capacity of
renewable energy is projected to be around 8,450MW,
or 15% of the system total installed
capacity around 56,640MW in 2025.
Renewable Energy Target
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2,500MW will come from hydro, 3,000MW from
wind power, 1,000MW from solar photovoltaic
(PV), 1,400MW from biomass,5 50MW from fuel
cell, geothermal and ocean power.
Taiwan Power Company’s (Taipower’s) 7th
transmission and substation plan from
2010~2015 will greatly enhance the system’s
ability to connect a large scale of wind power
and solar PV to the power grids.
Wind Power
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The offshorewind power project started in 2007,
up to 300MW until 2011
Renewable Energy Development Act offers
preferential price of wind energy and to ensure
that not less than the average cost of power
generation from fossil fuels
However, the annual CF (capacity factor, see
Appendix) decreased significantly, from 0.43 to
0.27 with more wind turbines installed and low
operational performance was also a serious
problem.
Wind Power Problems
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Average wind speed (5.6m/s) is lower than
other countries
Need to develop localized low speed onshore
wind turbines and high efficiency SWTs
( Small wind Turbines) in the future.
Should focus on producing power from them,
instead of installing capacity of wind turbines
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Sustainable Energy Policy Guidelines on
June 5, 2008
and approved the Energy Conservation
and Carbon Dioxide Reduction Action
Plan based on the Guidelines on
September 4, 2008.
Low Energy Prices
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Historically, Energy prices have been low in
Taiwan, even during the oil-price spikes in mid2008.
For exmaple, prices for 95 Unleaded Gasoline
(US dollars per liter) were $0.64 in 2002, $0.9 in
Sept. 2009.
Average electricity prices (US$/kWh) were lower
than $0.07 for the two decades from1988 to
2007, and rose to $0.08 in 2008
Thus, consveration incentive is weak and energy
efficiency low.
Electricity Rates Comparison

NT$/kWh
NT$/kWh
Taiwan
China
Japan
Korea
HK
Singapore
Malaysia
Philipines
Indonesia
Thailand
USA
Mexico
New Zealand
資料來源：The
Norway
residential
industrial
NT$/kWh
residential
industrial
2.586
1.833
Finland
4.5469
2.54
2.249
3.62
UK
6.8674
4.0765
5.7067
6.2404
Ireland
7.6514
4.6723
3.1985
2.1637
France
4.9546
1.756
3.8242
2.9565
Italy
8.0904
7.4318
4.4842
3.5121 Switerland
4.2647
2.6341
2.3019
2.2201
Poland
4.7351
2.5714
6.2672
4.8722
Turkey
3.8257
3.418
1.9901
2.1678
Czek
4.5783
3.6062
3.0279
2.7715
Portugese
6.6793
4.0138
3.3239
2.0069
Hungary
5.8953
4.202
2.9163
3.1985
Austria
6.7106
4.202
5.0486
2.1323
Slovekia
5.8953
4.296
International
Energy Agency（IEA）《ELECTRICITY
INFORMATION（2008 Edition）》、美國The Energy
4.1393
1.5052
Information Administration (EIA)、馬來西亞電力公司（TNB）2007年統計資料、中國社會科學院。
註：1美元等於31.358元新臺幣
27
Green Tax Reform
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the high-profile Tax Reform Committee (May
2008 ~ Dec. 2009) proposed a Green Tax
Reform
To levy energy taxes and carbon taxes on
exhaustible fossil fuels on a revenue-neutral
basis; that is, by recycling Green Tax revenues
into income tax cuts and subsidies for public
transportation systems
Provide incentives for energy savings and CO2
abatement without hurting the economy and
the poor.
Very likely to be legislated in 2011.
Green Tax Planned
Gree
n
Tax
Resource
tax
Pollution
Fees or
tax
Environmental
Tax
CO2 added as
new
Water Rights Fees（not yet levied）、Hot Spring Fees、
Water Resource Conservation and Feedback Fees
Mines Fees
Soil & Stones Extraction Fees
Excise Tax、Vehicle
Energy Tax
Fuel Fees, Oil Fund
Air Pollution Control Fees
Movable Polluting
Resources
Fixed
Construction Sites
Soil and Underground Water Pollution
Control Fees
Sea Disposal Fees (not yet levied)
Water Pollution Fees (not yet
levied)
Noise Control Fees
Waste Disposal Fees
Reclyclable Disposal
29
Six Key Emerging Industries
Plan
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Green energy and tourism, medicine and
health care, biotechnology,, culture and
creation, and high-end agriculture.
Goal: to upgrade industrial competitiveness
and break through the difficulties facing
exports at a time when the international
economic situation is yet to recover.
Taiwan’s Energy Status
(1/3)- Supply
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Eenergy supply grew from 42 million
kLOE in 1986, to 139 million kLOE in
2006
Annual growth rate averaging 6.2%.
Petroleum and Coal account for 97%.
31
Taiwan’s Energy Status
Structure of Energy Supply in Taiwan:
1986 - 2007
160
140
(Million kLOE)
120
Nuclear power generation
Water power generation
Liquefied Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Coal
100
50%
80
60
40
47%
20
0
1986
1990
1995
2000
?
2005
2006
2007
Taiwan’s Energy Status
(2/3)- Demand
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Energy consumed 37.73 million kLOE in
1986, increased to 112.28 million kLOE
in 2007
Average annual growth rate around
5.5%.
Industrial and transportation are the
main users.
Taiwan’s Energy Status
The Structure of Taiwan’s Energy
Demand by Sector, 1986-2007
120
Energy
Industrial
Residential
Other
Transportation
Agricultural
Commercial
Non-energy Consumption
(Million kLOE)
100
11%
80
60
53%
40
20
14%
0
1986
1990
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007
Taiwan’s Energy Status
(3/3)- CO2 emissions
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Total CO2 emissions in 1990 were 108.6 million
metric tons, growing to 215.6 mmt in 2000,
then to 265.8 mmt in 2007.
The average annual growth rate of total CO2
emissions for Taiwan over 1990 -2008 was
4.8%.
It is noteworthy that in 2008, total CO2
emissions grew by -4%, falling from 2007
levels to 255 million metric tons, due to oil
price hike and financial crisis.
Taiwan’s LEAP Model
Framework
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
System Framework of
Taiwan LEAP Model
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
Taiwan’s
Energy
Demand Side The LEAP
Framework
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
Taiwan’s
Energy
Demand Side The LEAP
Framework
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
BAU: Business As Usual
Scenario for Taiwan
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
BAU
BAU
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Based on the structure of Taiwan’s
energy sector as described in “Energy
Balance Sheet of Taiwan”,
Which is prepared on the basis of the
OECD Energy Statistical Tabular Form
and in coordination with the needs of
Taiwan (Bureau of Energy, MOEA, 2009).
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
BAU
Demographic Trends
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Taiwan’s population of 23 million in 2008
is expected to fall to 20.3 million by 2056.
The average number of persons per
household was 3.01 persons in 2008
The growth rate of household size, based
on historical data (1998~2008), has
averaged -1.33% annually
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
BAU
Economic Growth (1/2)
Recent
GDP
Growth
Rates of
Various
Industries
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
BAU
Economic Growth (2/2)
Recent
GDP
Growth
Rates of
Various
Industries
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
BAU
Energy Conversion (1/3)

Summary of the Current Status of Installed Electricity
Generation Capacity and Plans for Near-term Capacity
Additions for the Power System Nationwide
Unit: Thousand kW
Unit
2007
2008
Additional capacity to be added from
2008-2017
Coal
11,897
11,897
7,098
Gas
12,726
13,197
5,327
Fuel
3,610
3,610
109
Nuclear energy
5,144
5,144
2,700
Pumped hydro storage
2,602
2,602
-
Renewable energy
Hydro (conventional)
Other
Total installed capacity
3,211
1,921
1,938
796
182
246
2,415
38,082
38,634
18,445
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
BAU
Energy Conversion (2/3)

CPC Corporation Taiwan LNG Terminal Existing Capacity
and Expansion Plan
Year
Unit: Thousand Metric Tons per year
Yungan Plant
Taichung Plant
Total
2007
2008
2009
2010
8,280
9,000
7,440
9,000
42
360
1,500
3,000
8,322
9,360
8,940
12,000
2015
2020
2025
9,000
9,000
10,000
4,000
7,000
10,000
13,000
16,000
20,000
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
BAU
Energy Conversion (3/3)

Energy Conversion Module Framework for Tawian LEAP
Model
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
Other Scenarios Modeled
(GOV, FIN, RET, ALL)
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
GOV
GOV: Government Action

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The government’s target is to
reduce the energy intensity in
Tawian’s economy
By enhancing energy efficiency, with
an overall goal of reducing the
economy’s energy intensity by an
average of over 2 % annually thru
2025.
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
FIN
FIN: Financial Tsunami (a
sensitivity case)
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The FIN was established to examine the impacts
of lowered economic growth asumptions in the
medium and longer term on energy use.
Based on assumption derived from the Taipower
forecast, in the FIN sensitivity analysis case, the
long-term forecast for overall economic growth
in Taiwan falls to 3.42%/yr in 2016 and
2.59%/yr in 2021.
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
RET
RET：Retirement of the
Nuclear plants (1/2)

•
•
The difference between the RET and BAU cases :
The BAU case assumes that those units will
either be replaced with units of similar capacity
at the time of retirement of the original units, or
that their life will be extended, as is relatively
common today.
The RET case assumes that the 2 units in the
4th nuclear power plant are not completed and
thus not added to the power generation system.
RET
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
RET：Retirement of
Nuclear power plants (2/2)

Current Status and Retirement Schedule for Taiwan’s
Existing Nuclear Power
Existing installed capacity: 5,144 Thousand kW
Nuclear Plant
Installed Capacity
Date of Planned
Retirement
Total Installed Capacity
at Retirement
1St
1,272 thousand kW
2018
3,872 thousand kW
2nd
1,970 thousand kW
2021
1,092 thousand kW
3rd
1,902 thousand kW
2024
0 thousand KW
Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
ALL
ALL: Combined
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Reflects the combined assumptions:
The government’s energy conservation
and carbon emissions reduction policy
+ the long-term impacts of the financial
tsunami on Taiwan’s GDP
+ the retirement of nuclear power plants
as in the RET case
All take place.
Model Results for
Business As Usual Case
BAU
Model Results for Business As Usual Case
Demand-side Results (1/2)
Energy Demand-Outlook by Sector, BAU Case
1200
Transportation
1000
Trillion kcal

800
Services
Industry
Agriculture
Household
600
400
200
0
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
BAU: by sector
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
Industry’s largest share still increases
over time.
Followed by transportation sector.
BAU
Model Results for Business As Usual Case
Demand-side Results (2/2)
The Outlook of Energy Demand by Fuel, BAU Case
Residual Fuel Oil
1200
Natural Gas
Naphtha
1000
Metalurgical Coke
Trillion kcal

LPG
800
Kerosene
Jet Kerosene
600
Heat
Gasoline
400
Electricity
Diesel
Coke Oven Gas
200
Coal Bituminous
Coal Anthracite
0
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Blast Furnace Gas
BAU
Model Results for Business As Usual Case
Energy Conversion Results
Energy Conversion by Fuel Category, BAU Case
1200
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Petroleum Product
1000
Natural Gas
Naphtha
800
Trillion kcal

Metalurgical Coke
LPG
600
Kerosene
Jet Kerosene
Heat
400
Gasoline
Electricity
200
Diesel
Coke Oven Gas
Blast Furnace Gas
0
2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
BAU
Model Results for Business As Usual Case
CO2 Emissions (1/2)
Million Metric Tonnes CO 2 Equivalent

Carbon Dioxide Emissions, BAU Case
450
400
Transformation
350
Demand
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
BAU
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
CO2 Emissions (2/2)
Million Metric Tonnes CO2 Equivalent

Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Category, BAU Case
450
Residual Fuel Oil
400
Refinery Gas
Petroleum Coke
350
Natural Gas
300
Naphtha
Metalurgical Coke
250
LPG
200
Kerosene
Jet Kerosene
150
Gasoline
100
Diesel
Coke Oven Gas
50
Coal Bituminous
Coal Anthracite
0
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Blast Furnace Gas
Results for Other Taiwan
Energy Scenarios
BAU vs GOV
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
GOV vs. BAU Case Energy Demand
Difference by Energy Category
2008
0
-50
Trillion kcal
-100
-150
-200
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Residual Fuel Oil
Natural Gas
Naphtha
Metalurgical Coke
LPG
Kerosene
Jet Kerosene
Heat
Gasoline
Electricity
Diesel
-250
Coke Oven Gas
Coal Bituminous
-300
Coal Anthracite
Blast Furnace Gas
-350
Energy Demand Less


Under the GOV case, demand side
energy use totals 805.2 trillion kcal by
2030,
Which is 327.8 trillion kcal less than in
the BAU case.
BAU vs GOV
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
GOV vs. BAU Case Energy Conversion
Output Difference by Energy Category
2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
50
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Petroleum Product
0
Natural Gas
Naphtha
Trillion kcal
-50
Metalurgical Coke
LPG
-100
Kerosene
Jet Kerosene
-150
Heat
Gasoline
-200
Electricity
Diesel
-250
Coke Oven Gas
Blast Furnace Gas
-300
Energy conversion output less


GOV results show total energy
conversion output for 2030 of 904.3
trillion kcal,
which is 217.4 trillion kcal less than that
of the BAU case
BAU vs GOV
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
GOV vs. BAU Case Carbon Dioxide
Emission Difference by Fuel Category
2008
0
-20
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Residual Fuel Oil
Refinery Gas
Petroleum Coke
Million Metric Tonnes
Natural Gas
-40
Naphtha
Metalurgical Coke
-60
LPG
Kerosene
-80
-100
-120
Jet Kerosene
Gasoline
Diesel
Coke Oven Gas
Coal Bituminous
-140
Coal Anthracite
Blast Furnace Gas
-160
BAU vs FIN
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
FIN vs. BAU Case Energy Demand
Differences by Fuel Category
2008
2010
2015
2020
0
-10
Trillion kcal
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
Blast Furnace Gas
Coal Anthracite
Coal Bituminous
Coke Oven Gas
Diesel
Gasoline
Heat
Jet Kerosene
Kerosene
LPG
Metalurgical Coke
Naphtha
Natural Gas
Residual Fuel Oil
2025
2030
BAU vs FIN
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
FIN vs. BAU Case Energy Conversion
Output Difference by Fuel Category
2008
2010
2015
20
10
Trillion kcal
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Petroleum Product
Natural Gas
Naphtha
Metalurgical Coke
Kerosene
Heat
Gasoline
Electricity
Diesel
Blast Furnace Gas
2020
2025
2030
BAU vs FIN
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
FIN vs. BAU Case Carbon Dioxide
Emission Difference by Fuel Category
2008
2010
2015
2020
Million Metric Tonnes CO2 Equivalent
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
Blast Furnace Gas
Coke Oven Gas
Diesel
Gasoline
Jet Kerosene
LPG
Metalurgical Coke
Naphtha
Natural Gas
Petroleum Coke
2025
2030
BAU vs RET
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
RET vs. BAU Case Energy Conversion
Output Differences by Fuel Category
14
Blast Furnace Gas
Electricity
Kerosene
Naphtha
12
Trillion kcal
10
Diesel
Heat
Metalurgical Coke
Natural Gas
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
BAU vs RET
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
RET vs. BAU Case Carbon Dioxide
Emissions Differences by Fuel Category
Million Metric Tonnes CO2 Equivalent
60
50
Coal Bituminous
Natural Gas
40
30
20
10
0
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
BAU vs ALL
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
ALL vs. BAU Case Energy Demand
Differences by Fuel Category
2008
2010
2015
2020
0
-50
Trillion kcal
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
-400
Blast Furnace Gas
Coal Bituminous
Diesel
Gasoline
Jet Kerosene
LPG
Naphtha
Residual Fuel Oil
Coal Anthracite
Coke Oven Gas
Electricity
Heat
Kerosene
Metalurgical Coke
Natural Gas
2025
2030
BAU vs ALL
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
ALL vs. BAU Case Energy Conversion
Output Differences by Fuels Category
2008
2010
2015
50
0
Trillion kcal
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Petroleum Product
Natural Gas
Naphtha
Metalurgical Coke
Kerosene
Heat
Gasoline
Electricity
Diesel
Blast Furnace Gas
2020
2025
2030
BAU vs ALL
Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios
ALL vs. BAU Case Carbon Dioxide Emission
Differences by Fuels Category
2008
2010
2015
2020
Million Metric Tonnes CO2 Equivalent
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
Blast Furnace Gas
Coke Oven Gas
Diesel
Gasoline
Jet Kerosene
LPG
Metalurgical Coke
Naphtha
Natural Gas
Petroleum Coke
Refinery Gas
Residual Fuel Oil
2025
2030
Summary of LEAP Findings



The ALL case, results in the greatest reductions,
followed by the GOV case.
The FIN case has less effect on energy
consumption than the GOV or ALL cases,
indicating that lowered economic growth is likely
to have less effect on energy demand than
aggressive policies to change energy
consumption behavior patterns.
Retirement of existing nuclear power plants as
scheduled (RET) has a negative impact on
energy supply and an increase in CO2 emissions
Conclusion
Comparison of Total Demand Side
Energy Use, all Scenarios
2008
2010
0
-50
Trillion kcal
-100
-150
-200
ALL
BAU
FIN
GOV
-250
-300
-350
-400
RET
2015
2020
2025
2030
Conclusion
Comparison of the Energy
Conversion Output for All Scenarios
2008
2010
50
0
Trillion kcal
-50
-100
-150
-200
ALL
BAU
FIN
-250
-300
-350
-400
GOV
RET
2015
2020
2025
2030
Conclusion
Million Metric Tonnes CO 2 Equivalent
Comparison of Carbon Dioxide
Emissions in all Scenarios
100
50
0
2008
2010
-50
ALL
-100
BAU
FIN
-150
GOV
RET
-200
2015
2020
2025
2030
Status of Nuclear Power in Taiwan

6 Operating Units and 2 Units under Construction
→ Chinshan，BWR4，636 MWe*2, commissioned in 1977
→ Kuosheng，BWR6，980 MWe*2, commissioned in 1982
→ Maanshan，PWR， 956 MWe*2, commissioned in 1984
→ Lungmen，ABWR，1350 MWe*2, to be commissioned in 2010

Total Generation Capacity in 2007: 5,144 MWe
11.2% of Installed Capacity

Total Power Generated in 2007 : 39.3 TWh
16.7% of electricity generation ; 7.97% of Energy Supply

Total power Generation Cost of Nuclear Power in 2007 :
0.63 NT$ / kwh
Nuclear Power Stations of TPC
N
W
N
(BWR - 636 MWe × 2)
W
T
W
T
T
T
T
T
N
H
T
ChinShan
H
0
50 (km)
T
H
SCALE
(ABWR - 1,350 MWe × 2)
Lunmen
W
H
W
H
T
H
T
H
H
T
H
H
H
T
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
T
H
H
H
H
T
T
W
(BWR - 985 MWe × 2)
(PWR - 951 MWe × 2)
MaanShan
KuoSheng
H
H
T
H
H
T
H
H
T
T
N
W
81
82
Twists and Turns of Government Policy
on
Nuclear Power in 2001
• The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) , on
which anti-nuclear is on the platform, won the
Presidential Election on March 18, 2000
 Oct. 27, 2000, Premier Chang announced to
terminate the construction of the 4th Nuclear
Power Plant
 Resulted in Political turmoil, stock market plunge,
and economic downturn (growth rate turned 2.1% in 2001), first time ever in Taiwan since
1949.
2015/4/9
Department ESS, NTHU, Taiwan
83
Nuclear-Free Homeland
with 4th NPP
ject
Feb.14, 2001, a memorandum was signed by the Executive
Yuan and Legislative Yuan
1. Resume the construction of the 4th NPP.
2.“A Nuclear-Free Homeland” was the consensus among
all the political parties.
3. Executive Yuan will draft an “Energy Bill” related to
the utilization of nuclear energy.
Basic Environment Act (Dec. 11, 2002)
Article 23:
 The government shall establish plans to gradually
achieve the goal of becoming a nuclear-free country.
 The government will also strengthen nuclear safety
management and control, protections against radiation,
and the management of radioactive materials and
monitoring of environmental radiation to safeguard the
public from the dangers of radiation exposure.
National Energy Policy Drafted by
the Newly Elected Government (2008)
Policy : 「2008 Sustainable Energy Policy」
「Promote the diversification of energy resource, increase the weighting
of low-carbon energy in the energy portfolio, keep the nuclear power as
a viable option of energy supply, the power generated from low-carbon
primary energy resource will increase above 55% in 2025」
Strategy Plan : 「Energy Security Strategy Plan」
the Ministry of Economic Affairs
「Propose a plan to increase the percentage of renewable energy and
nuclear power from current 9% to 18% at year of 2005. The tentative
goal of the reduction of carbon dioxide generation: return to the level of
2008 between 2016 and 2020; return to the level of 2000 at 2025.
(Total generation at 2000 is 214.5 Million Tons) 」
2009 National Energy Conferences
• Nuclear Power is discussed in the section of Energy
Technology and Industry Development
• It is Suggested in the Conclusions of Group Discussion that:
1. Life Extension of the Existing Nuclear Power Units
2. Build Six Nuclear Power Units at the Existing Sites, the First One
will be Commercialized in 2020
3. Share of Nuclear Power in the Install Capacity increases to 20% ~
25% in 2025, and to 30% for the years beyond 2025
4. Strengthen the Public Acceptance of Nuclear Power
5. Promotion of the Safety of Nuclear Power Plant operation through
International Cooperation
6. Government should be Heavily Involved in the Identification of the
Repository Site of Low Level Nuclear Waste
7. Seek Regional Cooperation on the Spent Nuclear Fuel and High
Level Waste Management
Anti-Nuclear Advocates
in the National Energy Conferences
Nuclear Power is Against Justice Among Generations
Safety Concerns of Nuclear Power Plant, Especially on
the Issue of Earthquake
Lack of Proper Trained Engineers Running Nuclear
Power Plants
Taiwan has no Capability in Handling Nuclear Waste
Through proper load management, the Install Generation
Capacity is Enough to Cover the Future Demand
Anti-Nuclear Advocates
in the National Energy Conferences
TaiPower under-estimated the generation cost of
nuclear power
Nuclear Power generates carbon dioxide too
IPCC Has not Accepted Nuclear Power as a Way to
Reduce the Generation of Carbon Dioxide
Not all the Environmentalists Recommend Nuclear
Power as a Viable Option to Deal with the Climate
Changes
2015/4/9
wan
89
Anti-Nuclear Advocate
in the National Energy Conferences
Not All the Major Countries Has Adopted Nuclear
Power
Taiwan Has Enough Renewable Energy to Cover
the Needs
LNG is a Better Choice than Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power will Take Away Valuable Resources
NPPs at the Crossroad
• Nuclear power has significant contribution to
Taiwan’s economic growth
• Nuclear power is a reliable energy supply, and
helpful for the reduction of CO2 emission in the
future
• Government intends to initiate the second phase
of nuclear power development plan
• The major obstacles are the lack of an
executable, feasible, and dependable
management plan of low level waste and nuclear
spent fuel
Future Plans for LEAP





Calculate demand elasticities for all types of
energy due to energy prices will increase in the
LR.
Impact of green tax reform energy prices
increase on energy demand and the economy
Max Nuclear Power vs. Min Nuclear Power
Population growth rates on energy demand and
CO2 emission
Impact of Green Energy Industry Plan