Transcript Slajd 1 - EESC European Economic and Social Committee

The impact of the global financial crisis on the
industrial sectors of Poland. Main aggravating
factors of the crisis and possible solutions
Michał Górzyński
CASE – Centre for Social and Economic Research/ CASE-Doradcy
Zagreb, 26/04/2009
Structure of the presentation
 Economic overview of the Polish economy
 Economic standing of the industry sector in Poland
 Specific of the Polish case
 The situation and the problems of the banking sector
 Measures taken by the government
 Possible solutions
Polish GDP
 Polish economic situation is relatively good comparing
other European countries, but the economic forecasts
are more and more pessimistic what results from the
worse than expected economic condition of the world
economy
 GDP growth in 2008 + 4,8%; Contribution to GDP:
consumption - +3,3, investments – +1,7, public
investments – 0,1, foreign trade -0,1
Polish GDP 2009
 Mid of 2008 – forecasts for 2009: +4,5%
 November – forecasts of MoF for 2009 (budgetary act): +3,7%
 January 2009 – revision of MoF’s forecasts for 2009: +1,7%
 GDP growth in the first quarter 2009: + 0,3-0,4%
 Present forecasts from -0,7 (IMF) to + 1,5% (CASE)
% growth of VA according to the sectors
(y-o-y)
Construction
Market
services
Non-market
services
Industry
Agriculture
2008
11,3
5,6
1,2
3,2
3,2
IV Q 2008
4,8
5,1
3,2
0,9
3,6
Unemployment rate in %
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009
I
II
III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
I
II
III IV V
VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
I
II
Average employment in enterprise
sector (y-o-y)
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2008 I
-1.0%
2008 II
2008 III
2008 IV
2008 V
2008 VI 2008 VII 2008 VIII 2008 IX
2008 X
2008 XI 2008 XII
2009 I
2009 II
Dues (y-o-y)
32.7%
30.3%
29.5%
29.7%
28.4%
27.6%
27.7%
26.7%
37.3%
35.9%
35.8%
2008 XII
2009 I
31.7%
28.0%
25.3%
2008 I
2008 II
2008 III
2008 IV
2008 V
2008 VI
2008 VII 2008 VIII
2008 IX
2008 X
2008 XI
2009 II
Industrial new orders (y-o-y) - in %
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009
I
II
III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I
II
III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I
II
-20.0
-40.0
Sold production
(seasonally adjusted) - y-o-y
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009
I
II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I
II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I
II
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
Industry
Manufacturing
Construction and assambley production
„Successful” branches
Sold production (y-o-y) XII/2008-II/2009
35.0%
30.2%
30.0%
25.0%
22.0%
20.6%
20.6%
20.6%
20.0%
16.6%
15.0%
2008 XII
10.0%
2009 I
6.6%
2009 II
5.0%
3.1%
2.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.0%
Manufacture of beverages other transport equipment Pharmaceutical products
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
electrical equipment
-5.0%
-8.5%
Paper and paper products
-5.5%
-7.2%
„Most crisis infected” branches
Sold production (y-o-y) XII/2008-II/2009
0.0%
Basic metals
Coke and refined
petrolium products
other non-metallic
mineral products
-5.0%
motor vehicles,
trailers and semitrailers
Wearing apparel
Textiles
Products of wood,
cork, etc.
-4.1%
-7.3%
-10.0%
-10.5%
-15.0%
-14.8% -14.5%
-14.8%
2008 XII
-20.0%
-20.4%
-20.1%
-20.6%
-19.4%
-22.1%
-25.0%
-27.6%
-30.0%
-29.6%
-31.0%
-35.0%
-31.1%
-33.2%
-36.9%
-40.0%
-23.6%
-24.6%
-31.9%
2009 I
-20.1%
2009 II
Nature of the „Polish crisis”…
 Non – economic crisis
 Non- banking crisis
Rather….
 Foreign exchange rate crisis, which may be followed by
economic and banking crisis
Problems of banks
 Polish banking sector, comparing to other countries is in a
relatively good condition: no toxic assets in the portfolio;
Polish households repays regularly mortgage credits but…
 Many bank have foreign exchange mortgage credits in the portfolio
and depreciation of PLN as well as an increasing unemployment may
be a problem…
 Banking sector liquidity problem resulting from the lack of trust –
recently the situation improved a bit…
 Limitation of credit activity of the banking sector resulting from the
capital adequacy ratio….
 Nationally based banks vs. foreign owned banks
Financial results of the banking sector
in Poland
5
4.6
4.5
4
4
3.6
3.5
4
3.5
3.3
3.2
3
2.5
2.1
2
1.5
1.5
1
0.5
0
I 2007
II 2007
III 2007
IV 2007
I 2008
II 2008
III 2008
IV 2008
I 2009
Exchange rate 07/2008-03/2009
6.0000
5.0000
4.0000
3.0000
PLN/USD
2.0000
PLN/EURO
1.0000
PLN/CHF
0.0000
2008/07/01
2008/08/01
2008/09/01
2008/10/01
2008/11/01
2008/12/01
2009/01/01
2009/02/01
2009/03/01
as a result of the foreign exchange
crisis…
 Significant financial losses of the enterprise sector resulting
from the derivative instruments – 20 billion PLN (the cause
of the speculative attack on the PLN)
 In a long term possible deterioration of the banking sector’s
economic standing
 A few hundreds thousand households having mortgage
credits in EUR or CHF (as a result decrease of the domestic
consumption)
 Deterioration of the economic standing of Polish importers
But on the other hand…
 Significant increase of the Polish exports competitiveness
(despite the decrease of the export)
 Shift of the domestic demand towards domestic products
(significant decrease of import) – reorientation of the
Polish industry
 Increasing competitiveness of the Polish economy for
foreign investors (economic crisis in the Easter European
countries, depreciation of PLN to Euro and USD,
relatively huge internal demand)
Taken measures
 Budgetary savings – the goal is to keep the budget deficit and to




meet EURO criterias- the Polish approach
Easing the monetary policy – e.g. decrease of the interest rate by
the National Bank of Poland
PR activities - to present the real economic situation of the Polish
economy (especially to financial investors form the largest
fianncial institutions)
A declaration of the government to join ERM and to adopt Euro
Special IMF Flexible Credit Line - 21 billion USD (just in case)
Solutions/recommendation
 To join Euro zone as soon as possible
 Try to increase the credit aviability to the companies – e.g. special






govermnent’s credit lines to SMEs
More effective usage of the structural funding
To keep the fiscal discipline – no money on the market to finance the
budgetary deficit
More restrictive monetary policy (the problem of inflation may arise)
Issue of supervising the banking sector in the global dimension
Improving the regualtions concerning the banking sector’s information
policy about the derivatve products
To cross fingers for the world economy (first of all USA and German’s
economies….)…..
Thank you for your attention
[email protected]