Transcript Slajd 1 - Leasing

Leasing Industry Results in 2010
Polish Leasing Association
Press Conference
31st January 2011
Intercontinental Hotel
Warsaw
List of Polish Leasing Association Members
Bankowy Fundusz Leasingowy S.A.
BGŻ Leasing Sp. z o.o.
BNP Paribas Lease Group Sp. z o.o.
BRE Leasing Sp. z o.o.
BZ WBK Finanse & Leasing S.A.
Caterpillar Financial Services Poland Sp. z o.o.
De Lage Landen Leasing Polska S.A.
Deutsche Leasing Polska S.A.
DnB Nord Leasing Sp. z o.o.
Europejski Fundusz Leasingowy S.A.
Handlowy-Leasing S.A.
IKB Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.
Immoconsult Polska Sp. z o.o.
Immorent Leasing Polska Sp. z o. o.
ING Lease (Polska) Sp. z o.o.
Kredyt Lease S.A.
Masterlease Polska S.A.
Mercedes-Benz Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.
Millennium Leasing Sp. z o.o.
NOMA 2 Sp. z o.o.
Nordea Finance Polska S.A.
ORIX Polska S.A.
PEKAO Leasing Sp. z o.o.
Raiffeisen Leasing Polska S.A.
Scania Finance Polska Sp. z o.o.
SEB Leasing Polska Sp.z o.o.
SG Equipment Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.
SGB-Trans-Leasing PTL Sp. z o.o.
Siemens Finance Sp. z o.o.
VB Leasing Polska Polska S.A.
VFS Usługi Finansowe Polska Sp. z o.o.
Volkswagen Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.
Polski Związek Wynajmu i Leasingu Pojazdów
Leasing Market
Registration of new passenger cars with truck homologation
25 000
21 540
20 000
15 000
10 000
 In total, there were 315 thousand passenger cars
registered in 2010; increase of 16%. In December there
were 42 609 vehicles registered, the most since joining
the EU. It is also one of the highest monthly registration
rates.
 Growing B2B sales rate: 65% in November, much
more in December.
5 000
0
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 1. 2.
3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
2009
2010
registration of new passenger cars with truck homologation
45 000
40 000
60%
50%
35 000
30 000
25 000
40%
30%
20 000
15 000
10 000
20%
10%
5 000
0
0%
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.11.12.` 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.11.12.
2009
2010
registration of new passenger cars
registration of new passenger cars with truck homologation
share of new registered homologated passenger cars
 21 540 cars with cargo partition were registered in
December 2010, almost 9 thousand more than in
November.
 Passenger cars with truck homologation constituted
50.6% of all registrations concluded in December. The
annual rate amounts to 30.8%.
 There were 97 266 cars with cargo partition registered
in 2010; 112% more than in 2009.
 Leasing industry occurred to be well prepared,
both financially and organisationally, to attend the
enormous demand for cars with cargo partition.
 The average monthly value of financed movables in
Q4 increased of 50% (to 2.9 billion) in comparison to the
average rate from the previous nine months amounting
to PLN 1.9 billion.
 The turnover of the sector where cars with cargo
partition are reported doubled in Q4, comparing to Q3,
and constituted more than 40% of the annual turnover.
Source: Samar
Leasing Industry Results in 2010 (1)
Total number of assets financed by leasing companies
Jan-Sept’09
8 451
10 082
5 674
2 394
383
6 809
2 867
406
5 814
332
247
110
6 118
299
470
112
change
19,3%
20,0%
19,7%
6,0%
5,2%
-10,0%
90,5%
1,9%
14 954
17 081
1 646
1 018
Real Estate – only management
0
232
Financing in general (L+P)
16 599
18 099
Vehicles
Passenger Delivery Cars
Truck Vehicles
Other Vehicles
Machines
IT
Planes, ships and railway
Other Movables
Movables – total number
Real Estate - financing
Jan-Sept’10
3 670
5 816
2 651
843
176
3 974
1 494
348
1 835
136
297
31
2 418
165
179
37
change
58,5%
49,9%
77,3%
98,0%
31,8%
20,9%
-39,6%
17,4%
14,2%
5 970
8 615
-38,1%
427
577
0
0
6 397
9 192
9,0%
 Investment break among small and medium companies in 2009 resulted in
29% drop in new production of leasing concerning movables.
 Growth on movables market in 2010. After twenty-two-month drop, as of
March, we record the growth of the financed assets value YOY. The following
quarters registered the growth of: + 5%, +19.1%, +17.9% and +44.3%. It is a
continues tendency.
 There were two main pillars of growth within the three first quarters: light
vehicles (in fact cars with cargo partition) and truck vehicles.
 The fiscal changes regarding VAT deduction resulted in circa 106% growth
of the sector where passenger cars with truck homologation are reported.
Oct-Dec’09 Oct-Dec’10
12 120
15 898
8 325
3 237
559
10 783
4 361
754
7 649
469
544
141
8 536
464
650
149
change
31,2%
29,5%
34,7%
35,0%
11,6%
-1,0%
19,4%
5,3%
44,3%
20 923
25 696
22,8%
34,9%
2 073
1 595
-23,1%
0
232
22 997
27 291
43,7%
Jan-Dec’09 Jan-Dec’10
18,7%
 Better results in truck vehicles sector +3.3% in Q1, +22.1% in Q2, +34.2% in
Q3 and +77.3% in Q4. It is caused not only by low basis effect but also by the
growth on the transportation market and improving finance condition of transport
companies.
 Machines constituted the third pillar of growth in Q4 - +31.8% YOY. It is a
result of high production capacity use in production facilities and high (present
and expected) level of industrial production sold.
 In 2010 the value of machines financed by leasing companies was largely
supported with loans. It resulted in growing share of agricultural machinery and
medical equipment in new production structure.
 IT section still in downturn.
 Finally, the growth on real estate market in Q4. However, the whole year in
downturn.
Leasing Industry Results in 2010 (2)
Assets financed with leasing
Jan-Sept’ 09
Vehicles
Jan-Sept’10
change
Oct-Dec’09
Oct-Dec’10
change
Jan-Dec’09
Jan-Dec’10
change
8 451
10 026
18,6%
3 670
5 666
54,4%
12 120
15 692
29,5%
Passenger Delivery Cars
5 674
6 782
19,5%
2 651
3 939
48,6%
8 325
10 722
28,8%
Truck Vehicles
2 394
2 838
18,6%
843
1 455
72,7%
3 237
4 293
32,6%
Other Vehicles
383
406
6,0%
176
272
54,4%
559
677
21,2%
5 814
332
247
110
4 652
283
459
111
-20,0%
2 002
164
171
37
9,1%
17,3%
7 649
469
544
141
6 654
447
630
148
-13,0%
0,9%
1 835
136
297
31
14 954
15 530
3,9%
5 970
8 040
34,7%
20 923
23 571
12,7%
1 646
1 018
-38,1%
427
401
-6,1%
2 073
1 420
-31,5%
0
232
0
0
0
232
16 599
16 549
6 397
8 442
22 997
24 990
Machines
IT
Planes, ships and railway
Other Movables
Movables – in total
Real Estate - financing
Real Estate – only management
Leasing in general - financing
-14,8%
85,8%
-0,3%
20,2%
-42,4%
32,0%
-4,6%
15,8%
4,5%
8,7%
Source: Polish Leasing Association
Leasing Industry Results in 2010 (3)
Assets financed with loans
Jan-Sept’09
Jan-Sept’10
0
56
0
0
0
27
29
0
0
0
0
0
1 466
16
12
1
loan
share
0,6%
0,4%
1,0%
0,0%
24,0%
5,3%
2,5%
1,0%
Movables – in total
0
1 551
Real Estate
0
Loans in general
0
Vehicles
Passenger Delivery Cars
Truck Vehicles
Other Vehicles
Machines
IT
Planes, ships and railway
Other Movables
0
150
0
0
0
35
39
77
0
0
0
0
416
1
8
0
loan
share
2,6%
0,9%
2,6%
22,0%
17,2%
0,6%
4,6%
0,1%
9,1%
0
575
0
0,0%
0
1 551
8,6%
0
Machines financed with loans
Other Machines&Equipment 5%
Building Machinery
Medical Equipment
10%
12%
0
205
0
0
0
62
67
77
0
0
0
0
1 882
17
20
1
loan
share
1,3%
0,6%
1,5%
10,2%
22,1%
3,6%
3,1%
0,8%
6,7%
0
2 126
8,3%
175
30,4%
0
175
11,0%
750
8,2%
0
2 301
8,4%
Oct-Dec’09 Oct-Dec’10
Jan-Dec’09 Jan-Dec’10
Machines financed with leasing
Other Machines&Equipment 39%
Building Machinery
27%
Agricultural Machinery
8%
Machinery
for Food
Industry 2%
Medical Equipment
5%
Printing
Machines5%
Machinery for
Plastics Production
and Metalwork 7%
Printing
Machines 4%
Agricultural
Machinery 60%
Machinery
for Food
Industry 4%
Machinery for
Plastics Production
and Metalwork 12%
Source: Polish Leasing Association
Company Results in 2010
4 000
80%
Total number of assets financed in 2010 [PLN million]
3 500
3 254
Sales YOY
70%
/
60%
3 000
2 527
50%
2 500
33%
47%
2 000
1 934
1 706
1 684
30%
21%
1 358
1 500
20%
40%
1 322 1 257 1 250 1 183
29%
20%
10%
1 000
15%
3%
500
0
-7%
0%
0%
0%
-10%
-20%
 Greater and greater presence on the market
resulted in 19% growth of the asset value
financed by leasing companies in 2010.
 Growth on the market at the beginning of the
year was caused by significant increase of
individual company turnovers with moderate
result improvement among other companies.
 Low basis from the beginning of 2009, when
part of the leasing industry limited the production
due to liquidity problems and growing risk, does
not affect the company results so much.
 Companies focused mainly on real estate
activity contributed to lower turnovers in 2009.
 Bigger leasing companies record slightly
faster pace of growth. In 2010 the sale of
movables leasing grew in five leading
companies of 26.1% YOY while the growth in
other companies amounted to 20.6% YOY.
Source: Polish Leasing Association
Leasing Industry Results in 2010 – Real Estate
Business Structure of Real Estate Leasing Market
in 2010
Business Structure of Real Estate Leasing Market
Q1 – Q4 2010
Hotels
Recreation Centers
0,1%
Office Facilities
18%
Others
15%
Industrial
buildings
37%
EFL
3,1%
SGB-TransLeasing
0,4%
Others
14,7%
ING
33,3%
BZ WBK
4,0%
Commercial
and Service
Centers 30%
Bankowy
9,0%
Raiffeisen
5,6%
Pekao
5,9%
Millennium
7,1%
BNP Paribas
7,2%
BRE
8,6%
 The value of leased real estate units in 2010 amounted to PLN 1 595 million, which proves 23% decrease in comparison to 2009.
 After weaker first half of the year when the value of financed assets in Q1 and Q2 did not exceed PLN 300 million, the second half of
the year recorded better results. The market of real estate leasing amounted to PLN 457 million in Q3 and PLN 577 million in Q4. The
market grew of 35% YOY in the Q4.
 Negative dynamics of the market in the whole 2010 resulted from 30% drop of the average transaction value: from PLN 7.86 million in
2009 to PLN 5.48 million in 2010. The number of reported contracts grew from 248 to 225 in the previous year.
 In comparison to 2009 the market of real estate transactions financed with leasing is not so concentrated any more. In 2009 almost twothirds of transactions (quantity and value) were concluded by three leading companies. In 2010 the index for the transaction value
amounted to 51% and for the number of transactions, to 65%.
 In Q4 2010 the assets financed with loans constituted 30% of the real estate market.
Source: Polish Leasing Association
Currency Structure of New Production on Leasing Market
Currency Structure of New Production – real estate
Currency Structure of New Production - movables
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
50%
60%
Leasing in PLN
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
0%
Leasing in PLN
Leasing in Foreign Currency
Leasing in Foreign Currency
10%
0%
 In 2010, similarly to 2009, leasing in PLN prevails in new production structure in the case of movables leasing. Its
index grew from 81.5% in 2009 to 84% in 2010. The index regarding financing with loans is even higher and amounts to
88.8%.
 In the 2010 (in terms of individual quarters) we may observe a slight growth of interest in foreign currency leasing:
16.4% financed movables in the second half of the year in comparison to 14.6% in the first half of the year. The result is
much below the historical 32.3% in Q4 2008.
 Real estate leasing was usually executed in foreign currency. The share of foreign currency in new production
financing decreased significantly and amounted to 45.1% in the first half of 2010. However, the share grew to 67.5% in
the second half of the year and exceeded the average historical index estimated for circa 65%.
Source: Polish Leasing Association
Leasing and Investment between 2004 and 2010
40
60%
leasing market [PLN billion ]
% of investments financed with leasing
50%
change YOY
35
19%
50%
32,6
32,9
17,0%
40%
30
34%
28%
15%
25
27,3
23,0
21,8
17%
30%
19%
20%
1%
20
15,2%
14,1%
15%
10%
16,3
15
14,2
0%
12,9%
13%
12,4%
-10%
10
-30%
-20%
5
11,8%
-30%
0
-40%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
20%
investment in total [billion ]
17,6%
real change YOY
217
221
211
192
200
15%
14,9%
9,6%
155
150
10%
131
120
6,4%
5%
6,5%
-1,1%
50
-2,0%
0
0%
-5%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 (P)
10,4%
9%
2004
2010
250
100
11%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 (P)
 The average annual growth of leasing market amounted to 32% between 2004 and
2007, exceeding the investment dynamics in economy amounting to 11%. As a result
the share of leasing in investment financing grew significantly.
 In 2008 leasing market was affected by approaching economic crisis recording
drops in turnover since May 2008. The truck industry contributed the most to the
whole market halt, recording 40% drop in the second half of the year. The transport
industry was the first which in Q2 2008 was affected by the economic crisis in Euro
zone.
 Public infrastructural investment, often co-financed with EU funds, ensured low
drops in investment in 2009 and 2010. Private investment started in the second half of
2010.
 Current results of the leasing market forecast dynamic growth of investment among
companies and general economic growth in 2011. Very successful second half of 2010
for the leasing market resulted in the growth of leasing penetration index amounting to
12.9%.
Source: Polish Leasing Association, Central Statistical Office
Investment Financing – Leasing vs Investment Credit
70
25%
80
25%
value of the real estate leasing active portfolio
total value of the active portfolio
change in relation to the previous period
60
20%
70
change in relation to the previous period
20%
16,2%
48,4
50
47,7
47,3
43,9
40
45,4
47,8
15%
56,6
60
49,8
56,5
54,9
13,7%
53,4
55,3
15%
50
37,8
10%
40
5,2%
10,2%
30
10%
5%
-1,4%
20
30
-0,9%
-3,9%
3,6%
0%
5%
20
10
1,8%
-5%
-2,8%
10
0
-10%
31.12.2007
30.06.2008
31.12.2008
30.06.2009
31.12.2009
30.06.2010
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Balance of the investment credits
granted to companies by banks [PLN billion]
31.12.2010
-2,8%
0%
-0,2%
0
-5%
30.06.2008
31.12.2008
30.06.2009
31.12.2009
30.06.2010
31.12.2010
 The total value of leasing amount due amounting to PLN 55.35 billion (PLN
47.79 billion for movables and PLN 7.56 billion for real estate) at the end of 2010
is similar to the value of balance of the investment credits granted to companies
by banks (PLN 62.27 billion). Except for credits, leasing is the main external
source of financing investments, especially when we take into account great
“capacity” of the leasing portfolio (average leasing contract concluded in 2010 for
four years).
 Value of leasing amount due grew within the last 12 months of 0.7% (mainly
owing to the 1.1% growth of movables portfolio). However, it is of 2.2 % lower
than two years ago.
 Data provided by National Bank of Poland and concerning money supply (on
31st Jan 2010) shows the stabilisation of banks’ credit activity within the scope of
investment credits. Within the last 12 months the balance of the credits grew of
2.1%. The total growth within two years amounted to 3.0%.
Source: Polish Leasing Association, National Bank of Poland
Polish Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association
(PZWLP)
Results after Q4 2010
Leszek Pomorski
The President of PZWLP
Results of PZWLP after Q4 2010
•
The summary of 2010 in the industry of long-term rental
–
–
–
–
•
Amended regulations
Entrepreneur activation
Tendencies in the industry
Stable year for rental
PZWLP 2010 – 17 member companies
– 2010: three new members of the Association, one resignation
– Results provided by 16 companies
– One of the new companies will start to report after Q1 2011
•
PZWLP – in total after 2010 – 83.274 vehicles, including:
– FSL
– LS
– FM
69.132
4.807
9.335
(FSL – Full Service Leasing)
(LS – Leasing Service)
(FM – Fleet Management)
Source: PZWLP
Results of PZWLP after Q4 2010
•
More vehicles in PZWLP fleets
– Quarterly – in relation to Q3 2010 – increase of 10.49 % (7 904 vehicles)
– Annually – in relation to Q4 2009 – increase of 16.8 % (11 977 vehicles)
•
FSL develops the fastest – 96% more vehicles in 2010 (11 500)
20
+10,49%
15
83.274
10
Diagram no. 1
Dynamics of PZWLP
fleet development in
2010 (%)
+3,21%
+3,55%
5
-1,09%
71.297
0
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Source: PZWLP
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Leaders of Fleet Industry
(Members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP)
Leaders in three rental categories: FSL, LS i FM
1. Masterlease Polska
19.997 (including FM 130)
2. LeasePlan Fleet Management 15.291 (including FM 2.402)
3. Arval Service Lease 13.096 (including FM 206)
4. ING Car Lease
9.353 (including FM 0)
5. Carefleet
6.930 (including FM 662)
Leaders in FSL
1. LeasePlan Fleet Management
12.875
2. Arval Service Lease
12.753
3. Masterlease Polska
12.044
4. ING Car Lease
8.502
5. Carefleet
6.268
Source: PZWLP
Leaders of Fleet Industry
(Members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP)
Leaders in FM
1. LeasePlan Fleet Management
2. Corpo Flota
3. BRE Leasing
4. Raiffeisen-Leasing
5. Carefleet
2.402
1.890
1.508
973
662
Leaders in LS
1. Masterlease Polska
2. Bankowy Fundusz Leasingowy
3. Volkswagen Leasing
4. ING Car Lease
7.823
2.638
930
851
Source: PZWLP
Members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP
Leaders of Fleet Market
Total Numerical Representation by Product
Based on the results of 17 companies
FM
9 465
LS
12 630
FSL
81 176
• Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP – in total after 2010: 103 271 vehicles
• Growth of 14.3% in relation to Q4 2009
Source: PZWLP
Leasing Industry Forecast
Leasing Industry Forecast (1)
Assets financed with leasing
Vehicles
Passenger Delivery Cars
2010
2011
15 692
16 530
change
2011/2010
change YOY
change YOY
change YOY
change YOY
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
5,3%
7,4%
7,9%
18,5%
-5,5%
10 722
10 198
-4,9%
-1,9%
-3,2%
9,3%
-15,6%
Truck Vehicles
4 293
5 527
28,7%
28,6%
35,0%
35,0%
20,0%
Other Vehicles
677
805
18,9%
31,0%
19,0%
37,2%
4,8%
6 654
447
630
148
8 296
547
772
179
24,7%
10,0%
25,0%
35,0%
25,0%
22,4%
30,0%
20,0%
30,0%
15,0%
22,5%
50,0%
15,0%
15,0%
30,0%
21,3%
30,0%
30,0%
5,0%
30,0%
23 571
26 323
11,7%
9,3%
13,3%
23,7%
3,4%
1 420
1 692
19,2%
25,0%
35,0%
10,0%
15,0%
24 990
28 015
12,1%
10,3%
14,3%
22,7%
4,0%
Machines
IT
Planes, ships, railway
Other Movables
Movables – in total
Real Estate
Leasing in general
Assets financed with loan
2010
Vehicles
change
2011/2010
2011
Loan
Share
Q1 2011
Loan
Share
Q1 2011
Loan
Share
Q1 2011
Loan
Share
Q1 2011
205
193
-5,9%
0,9%
1,0%
1,3%
1,3%
Passenger Delivery Cars
62
59
-3,6%
0,6%
0,6%
0,6%
0,6%
Truck Vehicles
67
105
55,7%
1,4%
1,4%
2,1%
2,3%
Other Vehicles
77
29
-61,8%
3,2%
3,2%
3,2%
4,0%
1 882
17
20
1
2 391
20
35
1
27,0%
23,0%
21,8%
22,0%
22,8%
19,1%
3,5%
3,5%
3,5%
3,5%
74,3%
4,0%
4,0%
4,5%
4,5%
21,3%
0,8%
0,8%
0,8%
0,8%
2 126
2 640
24,2%
8,9%
8,6%
9,7%
9,1%
175
167
-4,4%
9,0%
9,0%
9,0%
9,0%
2 301
2 807
22,0%
8,9%
8,7%
9,7%
9,1%
Machines
IT
Planes, ships, railway
Other Movables
Movables – in total
Real Estate
Leasing in general
 In 2010 leasing market was prepared for
growth in company investment expected in
2011.
 Also macroeconomic data from recent
months confirms that economy recovers
from the global crisis faster than in 20012002. The business cycle of nine quarters.
 It is expected that the condition of the
industry will be improving within the next
quarters; leasing companies will be
significantly affected by “no-cargo-partition”
effect in Q1.
 The slowdown of the dynamics in case of
the movables market in Q4 2011 is expected
as a result of increased sale of cars with
cargo partition in November and December
2010.
 The expected growth of private
investment will be financed mainly with
loans. It is a result of growing absorption of
EU funds and of bigger interest of leasing
companies in such product.
Source: Polish Leasing Association
Leasing Industry Forecast (2)
Total number of assets financed by leasing companies
Vehicles
2010
2011
change
2011/2010
change YOY
Q1 2011
change YOY
Q2 2011
change YOY
Q3 2011
change YOY
Q4 2011
15 898
16 723
5,2%
8,1%
8,2%
19,3%
-6,7%
Passenger Delivery Cars
10 783
10 257
-4,9%
-1,5%
-3,3%
9,6%
-15,8%
Truck Vehicles
4 361
5 631
29,1%
29,5%
35,5%
36,3%
19,6%
Other Vehicles
754
834
10,7%
35,3%
22,9%
41,8%
-14,8%
8 536
464
650
149
10 687
567
806
180
25,2%
9,8%
18,7%
33,2%
34,1%
22,3%
34,4%
23,0%
18,3%
18,6%
24,1%
45,6%
19,2%
16,9%
29,9%
21,3%
31,0%
28,0%
5,1%
30,9%
25 696
28 963
12,7%
9,8%
12,5%
24,3%
6,2%
1 595
1 860
16,6%
37,4%
48,4%
20,9%
-12,0%
27 291
30 823
12,9%
11,3%
14,0%
24,1%
5,0%
Machines
IT
Planes, ships, railway
Other Movables
Movables – in total
Real Estate
Leasing in general
Almost 97 thousand passenger cars with truck homologation were bought by companies in 2010, which will lead to worse results concerning
passenger delivery cars sale in 2011. Bigger demand on passenger cars will not compensate lower number of the cars with cargo partition. Light
vehicles sector will be supported by bigger demand on delivery cars and trucks of maximum weight up to 3.5 tons (influence of domestic demand
growth).
 Trucks will incite the growth in 2011 (as a result of improving financial condition of transport companies, expected significant growth of transport
orders and the necessity to replace old vehicles with the new ones due to higher rates of e-myto). Also machines will encourage the growth (the
necessity to complete/develop machinery due to growing reliance on production capabilities and greater number of domestic orders).
 The market growth in 2011 amounting to circa 13% will correspond with similar growth of investment in national economy.
Source: Polish Leasing Association
Company Investments
Company Investments in 2010
Disappointing data:
70
50%
37,1%
40%
60
15,6%
50
40
30%
22,0%
20%
23,8%
6,5%
5,3%
10%
1,9%
30
-5,3%
0%
-17,9%
20
-10%
10
-20%
-17,7%
0
-30%
Q1-Q2
Q3-Q4
2006
Q1-Q2.
Q3-Q4.
2007
Q1-Q2
Q3-Q4.
2008
Q1-Q2
Q3-Q4
2009
Q1-Q2
Q3-Q4
(P)
2010
Investment of the companies over 50 employees [PLN billion]
Investment dynamics YOY
 Investment in economy in 2010
decreased of 2.0% (Q1 -12.8% YOY, Q2 -1.7% YOY, Q3 +0.4% YOYI and Q4 circa
+1%).
 The first half of 2010 recorded 17.7%
decrease in company investments, after
Q3 the drops amounted to 10.6%.
 Investment in buildings and building
structures decreased in Q1, Q2 and Q3
2010 (-13.3% YOY); decrease in
machinery investment amounted to
13.6% YOY. Investment in means of
transport grew of 20.6%.
Nevertheless, the real growth of big and medium company
investments in the Q3 2010 amounted to 5.3% YOY.
Data by Central Statistical Office
Company Investments – Main Determinants (1)
There are also more and more positive aspects:
Share of companies planning to begin
serious investment within a year
Index of investment continuation and share
of investing companies
Companies continuing investment (right axis)
Investment continuation index
Average (investment continuation index)
Companies continuing investment SA (right axis)
Data by National Bank of Poland
 The results of leasing industry show promise of company investment growth, the industry
develops not only owing to the “cargo partition”. So far, leasing market has been announcing
changes in domestic economy investment half a year earlier.
 We may observe gradual increase of company investment activity. Both annual and quarterly
investment plans are higher. In 2011 there will be more investing companies; there will be also
more money allocated to investment.
 23.6% companies will begin new investment in Q1 2011. New investment index is still lower
than the long-term average, however, it is higher both in terms of a quarter (+0.7 pp) and of a year
(+3.3 pp).
F01 – companies increasing number of investments
New investment index
New investment index (SA)
Average (new investment index SA)
Based-weighted index of new investment SA)
 Share of companies realizing investment plan grew in Q4 2010 up to 64.6% (growth of 2 pp
Q/Q). It is still much below the level before 2009. The ongoing investment is usually (97.7%)
continued without any problems.
 Trade gap is still growing (EUR 1.25 billion in Sept), thus, the investment demand is growing as
well.
Company Investments – Main Determinants (2)
New Investment Index
exporter
 The growth of investment might be expected mainly among export
companies and manufacturing facilities.
 New investment index is growing among the biggest companies,
over 2000 employees (it exceeded the level of the long-term
average).
 New investment index among companies over 250 employees has
been growing since the middle of 2009.
 Key issue for leasing companies – the interest in investing in SME
sector has been growing for two quarters.
 Significant growth of investment activity among the facilities
operating in processing industry results from meaningful contribution
of exporters. These companies take advantage of global trade
growth.
non-exporter
 Big fluctuation of the investment prosperity might be observed
among companies selling their products only on domestic market.
New investment index shows decreasing investment activity of these
companies in Q1 2011.
 Gradual growth of the investment possibilities for companies
focused on domestic market is expected within the following quarters
of the year.
 Other numerous surveys prove that more companies plan to
increase the number of investments. The surveys published by PKPP
„Lewiatan” and Deloitte show that 34% more big companies plan to
increase the number of investments in 2011 than to stop the ongoing
ones.
Data by National Bank of Poland
Company Investments – Main Determinants (3)
Average Level of Production Capacity Use
200
190
180
Commercial bank deposits from companies [PLN billion]
183 billion
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
 Continuous growth of production capacity use in Q4 2010: up to 79.9% (growth of 0.1 pp
Q/Q and of 2.5% YOY). The index exceeds the long-term average – strong relation to the
investment growth.
 Low quarterly growth of the index (at 11% growth of industrial production in Q4) suggests
that the investment processes started in Q4 of the previous year.
 The level of the settled EU funds is growing: PLN 10 billion in 2008, PLN 17 billion in
2009, PLN 36 billion in 2010 (PLN 27 billion planned). The Ministry of Regional
Development plans to spend PLN 40 billion in 2011, however, the experts suggest the sum
might grow to PLN 52-55 billion.
 High production dynamics shall prevail in 2011, which will influence the production
capacity use and the necessity for its reconstruction, as confirmed by high PMI. Further
dynamic production growth will not be possible without investment.
 Positive atmosphere prevails in companies. Good company results, good financial
liquidity, improved safety of commercial activity and access to financial sources encourage
investment growth.
Data by National Bank of Poland
End of Q3 2010 was a breaking point for company investments.
 Big companies and exporters taking advantage of current industrial
growth increase the number of investments as first. They also present
the best financial condition. The process started in Q3.
 SME sector started the investment process in Q4; it will reach the top
in 2011-2012 as result of growing domestic demand.
 It is estimated that the investment growth in 2011 will reach 11%.
 Capital expenditure in 2011 will be strongly supported with
infrastructural projects. The significance of private investment in
economy will grow in 2012.
Scenario for Polish Economy
2010 – Profitable Transformation of Polish Economy (1)
From the economy driven by export ….
12 000
40
30
10 000
20
8 000
10
6 000
0
-10
4 000
-20
2 000
-30
0
-40
Export EURmn
Export %YOY
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
industrial production dynamics (%) YOY
 Countries from Euro zone benefited from the global trade growth and
have recently recorded significant increase of production and export.
These factors drove the economic growth in Europe in 2010.
 The biggest European economy and the biggest business partner of
Poland, Germany, took the greatest advantage of good economic
situation in Asia and South America (recent production growth
amounting to 12% YOY).
 Poland benefited from the global trade growth mainly owing to the
cooperative character of Polish export.
 After the break of export at the turn of 2008 and 2009, annual export
dynamics started to grow in November 2009. The dynamics reached
20% in 2010. Since September 2010 we have been recording sale at
the level before the global crisis.
 The growth of export which started in November 2009 resulted in the
growth of sales in Polish industry. The dynamics amounting to 20% in
the period of Jan-Nov 2010 resulted in 9.8% growth of the industrial
production in the whole 2010 (+11.5% YOY in December).
 The growth of the industrial production in the first half of the year
regarded mainly industries strongly connected with export.
 After the break in Q1 (harsh winter effect), the growth in constructionassembly industry has been recorded since May (+12.3% YOY in
December and +3.5% in the whole 2010).
-20
Data by Central Statistical Office
2010 – Profitable Transformation of Polish Economy (2)
5 450
7
employment in enterprises [thousand people]
5 400
employment change in % YOY
6
5
4
5 350
3
5 300
2
1
5 250
0
-1
5 200
-2
5 150
-3
20
15
real dynamics of payroll in
enterprises [% YOY]
10
5
 Export is still significant but it discontinuous being the drive of the Polish economy. The
contribution of the trade exchange to GDP was neutral in Q3 but lower of 1.7 pp in Q4.
 Companies have been employing more persons since April 2010. The employment on a
year-to-year basis have started to grow since May (drops were recorded during the previous 15
months).
 At the end of 2010 the employment in companies over 10 employees reached 5.38 million
persons, 124 thousand more persons than in the previous year (+2.4%). In order to reach the
level of employment equal to the one before the global crisis (Oct 2008) 18 thousand persons
would have to be employed, which should happen in spring. It means that 2.5 years are
enough to reconstruct the level of employment; it took 7 years to do that during the previous
crisis.
 Despite the growth of unemployment to 12.3% at the end of the year (12.1% at the end of
2009), it is certain that the period of crisis on the employment market was shorter than it had
been expected.
0
-5
-10
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
… is currently supported mainly with
domestic demand owing to multiplier
effects
 Growth of employment together with the significant growth of salaries (+2.2% in Dec and
+0.7% in the whole 2010) result in growth of payroll. Security of employment results in greater
purchase.
nominal dynamics of retail sale [% YOY]
 Smaller companies, focused on domestic market, start to take advantage of the growth on
the employment market. This tendency might be observed in the production results of the
industries focused on domestic market. As a result, the growth of retail sale in Q4 2010
amounted to 10%, the growth of private consumption reached circa 4% YOY. In 2010 the
individual consumption grew of 3.2%.
 It resulted in economic growth amounting to 3.8% in 2010 and to 4.5% in Q4 2010 (+4.2% in
Q3).
Data by Central Statistical Office
Macroeconomic Forecast for 2011
Main Trends:
 The growth in Euro zone will continue despite the termination of stimulating programmes,
the implementation of saving programmes and the fiscal problems of the suburban countries
of the zone. We are still not expecting double-dip recession. According to the European
Commission the economic growth in Euro zone will reach 1.8%.
 The pace of growth in the case of German economy, so crucial for Poland, will slow down
from 3.6% in 2010 to 2.3%-2.6% in 2011. However, it will be much faster than in the case of
other Euro zone countries and the growth of the German economy will be supported by
growing expenditure of the consumers. It is the effect of unemployment decrease.
 Germans will still increase the level of production and export due to high indices of the
current German economic situation and its perspectives (ZEW, IFO, PMI). The dynamics of
new production orders remains at the level of 20%.
Forecast for Poland:
 Growth of industrial production: 8.5%
 Growth of export: +11.0%
 Net export contribution to GDP: -1 pp
 Growth of employment in enterprises: +150 000 people
 Unemployment at the end of the year: 10.5%
 Nominal growth of salaries: +4.5%
 Nominal growth of retail sale: +7.5%
 Growth of private consumption: +3.5%
 It will enable Poland to keep descent export dynamics and to maintain high dynamics of
industrial production during the whole year. It is estimated that the average pace of growth in
the case of the industrial production will amount to 9% in the first half of the year and to 8% in
the second half of the year. PMI index reached 56.3 points in January and is at the highest
level since the day Poland joined EU. The number of domestic and foreign orders is still
growing.
 GDP growth: +4.2%
 However, import will grow faster than export, which will result in negative contribution of the
foreign trade to the growth of GDP.
 GDP growth in 2011 will remain at the level similar to the
one from the second half of 2010 and it will correspond with
the nominal pace of the economic growth.
 The growth of production will lead to further improvement on the employment market
(permanent growth of employment and slightly higher than in 2010 nominal growth of salaries)
and to further growth of real payroll. As a result, the dynamics of retail sale will accelerate
from 6% in 2010 to 7.5% in 2011. Private consumption and private investment will constitute
the main pillars of the economic growth in 2011.
 Investment growth: +11.0%
 Consolidation of the public finance will not decrease the
pace of the economic growth in 2011 as it will not be
implemented yet..
Press Conference January 2010
Polish Leasing Association demands amendments in
the economic law, which will result in:
► Access to inexpensive financing solutions for entrepreneurs and consumers:
 Governmental draft amendment to the acts on taxes regarding consumer
leasing was submitted to the Polish Parliament. The Parliamentary “Friendly
State” Commission finished the works on the draft. It is expected that the Act
will enter into force on 1st July 2011.
 Marketing research proves that over 60% consumers declares willingness to
take advantage of leasing.
► Enabling retrieving funds frozen in real estate, also in PPP formula
Present situation:
Polish Leasing Association presented to the Minister of Infrastructure the
idea concerning the introduction of law amendments which would enable
Lease Sale and Lease Back in order to retrieve the funds frozen in municipal
real estate.
Centrum PPP, which was established also by Polish Leasing Association, is
trying to find the way how the public entity may contribute to PPP project
elaboration in particular areas of public activity.
Source: Polish Leasing Association
► Improved efficacy of EU funds use by the councils
Present situation:
The possibility to refund the leasing acquisition price was included in all
the biggest domestic programmes and 6 RPO.
► They will stimulate the market of real estate leasing:
- by cutting the duration of the contract on real estate leasing to 5 years
- by enabling the leasing of perpetual usufruct
► They will improve the protection of entrepreneurs who cannot continue leasing
contract due to financial problems:
- possibility to assign the liabilities to other entity
- possibility to lease the subject of the cancelled lease contract signed by
other entity
Present situation:
The Ministry of Finance expressed positive opinion on the proposed solutions
Source: Polish Leasing Association
► They will encourage entrepreneurs to invest by decreasing the costs connected
to the usage of company cars.
► They will improve safety on the roads as well as environmental protection.
Present situation:
 Polish Leasing Association together with Polish Automotive Industry
Association, Polish Chamber of Automotive Industry and Car Dealer
Association prepared the report entitled “Automotive Industry in the Global
Crisis. Proposed Solutions”. The report presents four key issues: full VAT
deduction in the case of company cars, introduction of environmental tax,
introduction of consumer leasing to the market and improved functioning of
vehicle inspection stations.
 Polish Leasing Association became the partner of Przyjazna Motoryzacja
Programme.
The Programme aims at drawing the attention of the representatives of
public and parliamentary administration, the representatives of the
voluntary and professional organisations to the significance of
motorisation in the fields of economy, ecology and safety.
Source: Polish Leasing Association
Związek Polskiego Leasingu
(Polish Leasing Association)
ul. Rejtana 17, Warszawa
tel.: (22) 542 41 36
fax: (22) 542 41 37
e-mail: [email protected]
www.leasing.org.pl