Transcript Methods and Statistics in Socio

Methods and Statistics in Socio-Economic
Research
UNIT 2
http://www.policy-evaluation.org/euresearch/
©Copyright 2004 by A. Cerami
Table of Contents

Part I
– The Research Design
– Introduction to basic macro-economic
statistics

Part II
– Group Work
PART I
Introduction to research design and basic macroeconomic statistics
The Research Design
Theory
Hypothesis
Operationalisation
of concepts
Selection of respondents/participants
Survey/correlational design
Experimental Design
Create experimental and control groups
Carry out observations or adminster tests
Interviews or questionnaire
Collect Data
Analyse Data
Findings
Source: Bryman and Cramer (2001, fig. 1.1)
Example of Research Design
Title of Research:
Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) in Russia
Theory
Theory of Active Involvement
Hypothesis
The chances of re-employment through ALMPs greatly depend on the
participants’ will to be actively involved in these measures
Operationalisation of concepts
Concept of Active Involvement
“all those individuals who regularly participate to ALMPs”
Selection of Respondents
30% of all ALMPs participants in Moscow in 2000
Methods:
Face-to-Face Interview
Secondary Data Analysis
Example of Research Design
Collect Data:
Carry out interviews
Obtain Official Statistics
Analyse Data:
Qualitative Method: explore personal observations of participants
Quantitative Method: assess % of ALMPs success in terms of reemployment
Findings
Theory of Active Involvement confirmed: the chances of re-employment
through ALMPs greatly depend on the participants’ will to be actively
involved in these measures
Theory of Active Involvement refuted: The chances of re-employment
through ALMPs do not depend on the participants’ will to be actively
involved in these measures
Statistics
Why do we need statistics?

To obtain specific information

To explore problematic issues

To predict future trends

To evaluate the impact of policies
How to Look at Statistics


Statistics are like photos of the world.
What does this photo show?
Statistics: Gross National Product (GNP)

and what do these tables show?
Gross National Product per
capita 1997
$PPPS
$ current
All Countries
6139
5074
More Developed Regions
18351
20298
Less Developed Regions
3179
1333
Least Developed Regions
957
260
Source: ILO, World Labour Report 2000
1.
2.
3.
More developed regions comprise Northern America, Japan, Europe and Australia/New
Zealand.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean,
Asia (excluding Japan) and Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.
Least developed regions, as defined by the United Nations General Assembly, include
48 countries, of which 33 in Africa, nine in Asia, one in Latin America and the Caribbean,
and five in Oceania.
Statistics: Employment
Labour Force Participation of Persons at age 10-15
1980
1995
2000
2010
World Total
19,9
13,1
11,3
8,5
More Developed
Regions
0,3
0
0
0
Less Developed
Regions
23,9
15,3
13
9,6
Least Developed
Regions
37,8
33,3
31,6
28,4
Source: ILO, World Labour Report 2000
Statistics: Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy at Birth
1980-5
1995-2000
61,4
65,4
More Developed Regions
73
74,9
Less Developed Regions
58,6
63,3
Least Developed Regions
47,3
50,5
World Total
Source: ILO, World Labour Report 2000
Statistics: Old Age Dependency Ratio
Old Age Dependency Ratio
2000
2010
2030
2050
World Total
10,9
11,5
17,9
25,6
More Developed
Regions
21,3
23,4
36,6
44,1
Less Developed
Regions
8,2
8,9
14,8
23,1
Least Developed
Regions
5,6
5,6
7,1
11,9
Source: ILO, World Labour Report 2000
PART II
Group Work
Exercise Unit Two
Students will be required to critically discuss some basic economic statistics
concerning one or more EU Member State.
Steps to follow:
1. Go to the web-site of the course
http://www.policy-evaluation.org/euresearch/
2. Click on Statistics
3. Download the documents
4. Choose a country (eg. UK)
5. Read, analyse and discuss the economic statistics provided (eg. gdp,
inflation, unemployment). Particularly important here is to understand
what is the meaning of these numbers and what they imply for the
population of the country.
Key Questions
Key questions:
-
Which is the situation of the country in terms of economic
growth? Is the economy growing? If not, why?
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Which is the situation of the country in terms of unemployment?
Is unemployment increasing? If yes, why?
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Which is the situation of the country in terms of price increase? Is
it stable? If not, why?