Transcript Globalisation

Globalisation: recent trends, social impact
and role of ILO
Raymond Torres
Director, International Institute for Labour Studies
ILO
[email protected]
What is new about globalisation?
•
Growing number of actors:
– BRICs represent 45% of labour supply, most
of them were marginal participants in the
world economy in the early 1990s
– Increased global awareness of social
problems (role of civil society)
What is new?
•
Financial globalisation:
– Financial assets represent nearly 5 times
annual GDP of developed countries (it was
at par with GDP in the early 1990s)
– Similar trends, but with a lag, in emerging
economies and developing countries
•
Increased technical possibilities to
outsource production
What is the social impact?
• New growth and job creation opportunities:
– Since early 1990s, nearly all regions have enjoyed robust
employment growth
– But significant cross-country differences
• The benefits have been unequally shared:
– Income of rich households has grown fast relative to middleclass and poor households, in over two thirds of countries
– Real wages have grown moderately, much less than productivity
gains, in nearly all countries. Profit shares have increased
What is the social impact?
• The labour market is more unstable:
– Systemic financial crises were ten times more
frequent in the 1990s than in the 1980s
Instability of financial flows
– Firms respond more quickly to shocks (because of
international competition and outsourcing
possibilities)
– Rising incidence of “non-regular” employment
Labour demand has become more
responsive to shocks
Trend in the conditional wage elasticity of labour demand, 1980-2002
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How to respond?
Aim is to enhance opportunities and ensure that
they are equitably shared
•
Comprehensive policy package: the Decent
Work Agenda:
i) Policies should aim at promoting employment
opportunities: good for the economy and society
(employment is probably the most effective
redistribution mechanism)
How to respond?
ii)
Social protection, consistent with employment,
should be available: shares costs of adjustment,
supports re-employment and enhance support for
change
iii) Fundamental principles and rights at work: key
for a balanced development and an input to
development (e.g. child labour)
iv) Social dialogue: a method to ensure that reforms
are properly discussed and implemented, and a
way to share the gains from reforms
How to respond?
• Possible obstacles to implementation of the DW
agenda:
– Funding of the measures
– Technical difficulties of certain measures, need to
tailor them to country circumstances
– Perception that there may be gainers and losers?
Two recent ILO initiatives
• 1998 Declaration on Fundamental
Principles and Rights at Work and its
follow up
• 2008 Declaration on Social Justice for a
Fair Globalization and its follow up
Selected references
• ILO-WTO report entitled “Trade and Employment
- Challenges for Policy Research”, 2007.
• Forthcoming report of the IILS, World of Work
2008. See IILS web site on www.ilo.org
• 1998 Declaration available on www.ilo.org
• 2008 Declaration available in the room.