Transcript Spain: Growth with jobs

Growth: What is it good for?
Steven Tobin
ILO Research Department
Outline
• Key challenges and risks
• Potential solutions
• How do we get there?
Q2-2014
Q1-2014
Q4-2013
Q3-2013
Q2-2013
Q1-2013
Q4-2012
Q3-2012
Employment
Q2-2012
Q1-2012
Q4-2011
Q3-2011
Q2-2011
Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q2-2010
Q1-2010
106
Q4-2009
Q3-2009
Q2-2009
Q1-2009
Q4-2008
Q3-2008
Q2-2008
Q1-2008
Jobless growth
Employment and GDP in EU-28
108
GDP
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
Risks of labour market detachment
Unemployed for more than one year (% and millions)
55
12 milllion
(7.8m 2 years or more)
50
45
1.8 milllion
(0.8m 2 years or more)
40
35
30
25
20
Total
Youth
Q2 2008
Q2 2014
Support for ALMPs has waned
% change in real spending per unemployed person, 2007-11
%
10
Income support
ALMPs
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
EU
OECD
Training efforts are limited
Participants in labour market policies
(per 100 persons wanting to work)
50
2007
45
2010
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Passive policies
Active policies
Training
Source: Manpower Group
Netherlands
Czech Republic
United Kingdom
Belgium
Slovenia
France
Slovakia
Sweden
Poland
Finland
Italy
Romania
Germany
Greece
Austria
Bulgaria
Hungary
Yet, finding “talent” is a challenge
% of employers having difficulty to fill jobs, 2014
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Access to finance has deteriorated
Share of SMEs reporting access to finance as most pressing problem
2009
2013
45
40
35
Countries where access
to finance has
deteriorated
Countries where
access to finance
has improved
30
25
20
15
10
5
Cyprus
Greece
Spain
Slovenia
Italy
Ireland
Netherlands
Portugal
Slovakia
Hungary
Bulgaria
EU-28
Denmark
France
Finland
Belgium
Malta
Sweden
Germany
Croatia
Lithuania
UK
Romania
Latvia
Czech Rep.
Estonia
Poland
Austria
Luxembourg
0
Source: ILO Research Department based on EU Commission
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Germany
Lithuania
Finland
Austria
Sweden
Latvia
EU-27
Slovenia
Belgium
Poland
Spain
Portugal
Italy
Greece
Small firms are central to jobs
Share of employment in micro firms (0-9 employee), 2012
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Costs of a prolonged job recession
•
Declining reemployment wages/inequality
•
Declining future labour market attachment
•
Social exclusion
•
Skills erosion
•
Competitiveness/productivity loss
•
Challenges to the social security system
Demand: Enabling growth and jobs
• Start-up incentives
• “Lifelong learning” for firms/entrepreneurs
• Credit to SMEs
• There’s more to competitiveness than wages
• Support productive investments
• Complement investments with employment
policies: win-win
Supply : Design and delivery matter
• Properly targeted: Disadvantage vs disadvantaged
• Implementation and delivery
• Strengthen link between income support and
activation
• Emphasis on training and employability
• Demand-driven: inclusive design
• Evaluation practices need to be improved
Show me the money
• Pace of fiscal consolidation
• Shifting priorities
• Costs cannot be viewed in isolation of benefits
• Leverage existing funds: e.g. growth and
investment packages
• Cost of inaction
How do we get there?
• Recognition that growth is not enough
• Comprehensive labour market strategy
• Tripartite and inclusive strategy
• Co-ordination, co-ordination, co-ordination
• More than a “one-off”: monitor and (re)evaluate