Transcript Österreichischer Klimabeirat Austrian Council on Climate

StartClim
The climate research platform AustroClim (www.austroclim.at) aims
at meeting the challenge climate change poses to science. It wants to
support decisions that have to be made in political/ economic sectors
and by each individual. AustroClim initiated the research programme
StartClim after the flood 2002.
StartClim started in 2003. Many Austrian scientist from different
Austrian research institutions deal and dealt with the thematic areas
climate change & extreme meteorological events and their impacts on
economy, agriculture, tourism, health, energy, … especially in Austria.
StartClim is initiating research on topics not yet established in Austria
and wants to promote young scientists. The short term projects allow
Frequency of days with temperatures
above 25 and 30°C in summer (Vienna) and
extremes below 0°C (Schmittenhöhe 1964 m)
(Model results)
Frequency distribution of daily
temperature maximum; Vienna – summer
(Observations)
20
100
18
90
16
80
Frequency (%)
Percent /%) of days
1901-1950
14
summer days (max>25°C)
tropical days (max>30°C)
frost days (min<0°C)
ice days(max<0°C)
1951-2000
12
10
8
6
4
www.austroclim.at/startclim/
to react to currently important subjects and show where further
research is necessary.
StartClim-projects have supplied a wealth of new data and
understanding that they are also of practical relevance.
Reports (in German, overview-reports in German and English)
can be downloaded from www.austroclim.at/startclim/.
An open, partially commented reference database on the topic
climate change and extreme events was compiled in the
framework of StartClim. It is available to all future research
projects in the field and is enlarged every year.
Until now StartClim has eight funding partners (see logos at the bottom)
consisting of ministries and other institutions. Administrative tasks are assumed
by the Austrian Federal Environmental Agency.
The scientific project leader is Univ.Prof. Dr. Helga Kromp-Kolb, Institute of
Meteorology, Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, University of
Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU).
All StartClim projects are supported by international scientific advisors.
An open, partially commented reference database on the topic climate change
and extreme events was compiled in the framework of StartClim. It is available to
all future research projects in the field and is enlarged every year.
StartClim2003
StartClim.1: Quality control and statistical characteristics of selected
climate parameters on the basis of daily values in the face of
Extreme Value Analysis 6)
Number of Events / Municipality (1972-2001)
Data: Austrian and Research Centre for Forests in Vienna
1
1-5
5 - 10
10 - 15
15 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 47
StartClim.2: Analysis of the representativeness of a data collected
over a span of fifty years for the description of the variability of
climatic extremes 6)
70
60
StartClim.3a: Extreme Events: Documentation of hazardous events
in Austria such as rock avalanches, floods, debris flows, landslides,
and avalanches 18)
50
40
30
20
2
10
0
0
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
19611990
Temperature (°C)
20012025
20262050
19611990
20012025
20262050
Schmittenhöhe - Winter
Vienna - Summer
The analyses of the 50-year data sets for Vienna, Hohe Warte, show a significant
increase of extreme summer temperature within the last 50 years (left figure) while
the extremes of winter minimum temperatures have not become correspondingly
less frequent. For a selected global climate change scenario, the frequency of days
with temperature extremes above 30°C doubles within the next 25 – 50 years (right
figure), while in about 2000 m a.s.l. the warming leads to a decrease in the number
of days with temperature continuously below 0°C by about one third.
EWE/Sector
Insurance
Avalanches
Energy/
Water
I/ yes
Forestry
Tour.
II/ yes
Agriculture
I/ yes
III/ yes
III/ yes
Health
care
III / yes
Floods
III/ yes
III/ yes
II/ yes
I/ yes
II/ yes
III/ yes
Hailstorms
0/ no
III/ yes
III/ no
0/ no
0/ no
I/ no
Storms
I/ no
III/ yes
II/ no
III/ yes
II/ yes
II/ no
Summer draught
II/ no
III/ yes
III/ yes
I/ no
0/ no
II/ no
Winter-aridity
0/ no
0/ no
II/ no
0/ no
III/ yes
0/ no
StartClim.3b: Documentation of the impact of extreme weather
events on agricultural production 1)
StartClim.4: Development of a method to predict the occurrence of
extreme events from large-scale meteorological fields 19)
StartClim.5: Testing statistical downscaling techniques for their
applicability to Extreme Events in Austria 19)
StartClim.6: Adaptation strategies for economic sectors affected
heavily by extreme weather events: Economic evaluation and policy
options 2)8)
0
50
100
150
200
Areas on the northerly and southerly slopes of the Alps, such as the Salzkammergut, the
district Zell am See or the Gailtal, and a few inner alpine areas, such as the Upper Inn Valley,
are most frequently affected. In the municipalities Saalbach Hinterglemm, Bad Goisern und
Abtenau more than 40 events occurred during the 32 years documented.
A cluster analysis of the
daily precipitation at the
Austrian climate stations
was carried out for the
period 1979-1993, using the
correlation coefficient as a
measure of similarity. This
resulted in seven
precipitation regions with
similar behaviour with
respect to daily heavy
precipitation:
StartClim.9: Summer 2002 floods in Austria: damage account
data pool 5)
StartClim.10: Economic aspects of the 2002-Floodings: Data
analysis, asset accounts and macroeconomic effects 3)
StartClim.11: Communication at the interface
science – education 14)19)
StartClim.12: Developing an innovative approach for the analysis of
the August 2002 Flood Event in comparison with similar extreme
events in recent years 9)
Abbreviation
Sector
StartClim.13: High-resolution precipitation analysis 9)
0
(practically) no damage
Yes
Data about EWE impacts on
this sector available
StartClim.14: Performance of meteorological forecast models during
the August 2002 floods 6)
I
Negligible
No
No data available, own assumption
in combination with literature
II
Sensitive
Energy/Water
III
Very sensitive
Energy- and Water
management
StartClim.C: Design of a long term Climate-Climate-Impact
Research Program for Austria 19)
StartClim2004
-Western Austria (Vorarlberg and most of Northern Tyrol),
-Northern "Stau" (northeastern part of Tyrol, parts of Salzburg and Upper Austria),
-Wald- and Mühlviertel (northern parts of Upper and Lower Austria),
-Eastern Region (Vienna, northern Burgenland, parts of Lower Austria),
-Ennstal-Semmering (northern Styria and southern Lower Austria until about the Rax),
-Southeast (southern Burgenland, central and southern Styria, lower Carinthia), and
-Southern "Stau" (East Tyrol, upper Carinthia)
grassland
Number of days per decade
Number of periods per decade
StartClim2004.A: Analysis of heat and drought periods in Austria:
Extension of the daily StartClim data record by the element vapour
pressure 6)
longer than 12 days
9 to 12 days
5 to 12 days
up to 4 days
Number of days
decade
The number of hot days in Austria (under the terms of Kyselý) has increased
significantly since the middle of the last century. The number of hot periods
and the length of hot periods increased as well.
StartClim2004.C: Analysis of the impact of the drought in 2003 on
agriculture in Austria – comparison of different methods 1)19)
Associated projects:
Heat and drought impacts to Austrian water supply and
distribution 21)
Strategies for adaptation to droughts: Evaluation of economicfinancial versus technical factors of risk management 22)25)
StartClim2005 (in progress)
StartClim2005.C2: Studies on the distribution of tularaemia in Styria under
the aspect of climate change 11)
30
25
2019-2048
1961-1990
20
15
StartClim2005.C3a: Impacts of climate change on agricultural pests and
antagonists in organic farming in Eastern Austria 4)19)
StartClim2005.C3b: Risk analysis of the establishment of the Western
Flower Thrips (Frankliniella occidentalis) under outdoor conditions in Austria
as a result of the climatic change 19)23)
10
StartClim2005.C5: An allergenic neophyte and its potential spread in
Austria – range dynamics of ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) under
influence of climate change 10)24)
5
0
155
203
273
350
383
430
469
492
530
595
668
710
835
945 1100 1400 1618 2140
Seehöhe der Stationen [m]
Sea
level of station (m)
Future scenarios for Austria show a significant increase of the number of hot
days depending on the sea level of the stations. Heat days are doubled in the
lower regions and partly much more than doubled in higher regions.
StartClim2005.F: GIS-sustained simulation of diminishing habitats of snow
grouse, black grouse, chamois and capricorn under conditions of global
warming and heightening forest limits with consideration of specific animal
diseases 13)22)
StartClim2006 (starting)
MEDEA
Meteorological Extreme event Data information system for the
Eastern Alpine region
The information system MEDEA is developed in StartClim to bring
together a wide range of data on extreme weather events and
weather-included events in Austria from different scientific fields.
MEDEA is designed to provide a long term archive for data relevant
to extreme events for scientists working in climatology as well as
those working on the consequences of climate change. MEDEA has
the aim to allow integrated analyses of diverse data related to
extreme events in Austria.
maize
StartClim2004.G: Project at the interface science-education in
cooperation with schools: Is there any correlation between hot
weather and the intellectual fitness? 19)
StartClim2005.A1-b: Nocturnal cooling under a changing climate 17)19)
35
spring
barley
StartClim2004.B: Investigation of regional climate change scenarios
with respect to heat waves and dry spells 19)
StartClim2005.A1-a: Impacts of temperature on mortality and morbidity in
Vienna 17)19)
40
250 Kilometers
StartClim.8: Risk-management and public welfare in the face of
extreme weather events: What is the optimal mix of private
insurance, public risk pooling and alternative transfer mechanisms 8)
Sector Sensitivity for each EWE
Impacts of extreme weather events on different economic sectors and availability of
relevant data, based on publications and interviews with experts and stakeholders
50
StartClim.7: Changes in the social metabolism due to the 2002floodings in Austria: case study of an affected community 14)
Category
year
perpro
heatderdays
Number
Mittlereof
Anzahl
Hitzetage
Jahr
An initial analysis of the 4122
events recorded in the BFW
Database shows that 36 % of
the municipalities covering a
total area equivalent to 55 %
of Austria were affected by
severe torrents, debris flows
and floods. Torrents are
generally limited to small
catchment areas: 40% of the
events are registered in
catchment areas smaller than
10 km², 20 % in areas smaller
than 1 km².
StartClim2006.A: Particulate matter and climate change - Which
interconnections can be found in Northeast Austria ? 17)19)
StartClim2006.B: Risk assessment for the autochthonous occurrence of
visceral leishmaniosis in Austria 7)19)
soft
wheat
Meteorological parameters and their influence
on yields of grassland,
spring barley, maize and
soft wheat were examined
on the district scale for
the year 2003 in percent
of the average yields of
1997 to 2002. The results
gave evidence for the
importance of differentiation between geographical regions and crop
species.
In the east of Austria water shortage and high temperature periods more frequently limit yield
than in more westerly production areas. Thus the lack of significant deviations from the long
term average of precipitation and temperature was more important in avoiding yield
reductions than for the rest of Austria. (Acreage of respective crop in hatched-coloured
districts is below 1% of the total district area.)
Participating institutions
1) ARC Seibersdorf research
2) Austrian Humans Dimensions Programme (HDP-A)
3) Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)
4) Bio Forschung Austria
5) Center of Natural Hazards and Risk Management (ZENAR), BOKU
6) Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics
7) Department for Medical Parasitology, MUW
8) Department of Economics, Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz
9) Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna
10) Federal Environment Agency
11) Gesellschaft für Wildtier und Lebensraum Greßmann & Deutz OEG
12) GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht
13) HBLFA Raumberg Gumpenstein, Agricultural Research and Education Centre
14) IFF Department of Social Ecology
15) IIASA
16) Institut für touristische Raumplanung
17) Institute of Environmantal Hygiene, Centre for Public Health, MUW
18) Institute of Forest and Mountain-Risk Engineering, BOKU
19) Institute of Meteorology, BOKU
20) Institute of Sanitary Engineering and Water Pollution Control, BOKU
21) Institute of Water Management, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, BOKU
22) Joanneum Resarch Graz
23) The Austrian Agency für Health and Food Safety, AGES
24) VINCA, Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation & Analysis
25) Wegener Center
StartClim2006.C: Impacts of climate change on the increase of grub
damages (Scarabaeidae; Coleoptera) in Austrian grassland 4)19)
StartClim2006.D1: The impact of climatic changes on the Austrian summer
tourism 16)19)
StartClim2006.D2: Adaptation of summer tourism in Austria in respect of
climate change 6)
StartClim2006.F: Climate change impacts on energy use for space
heating and cooling in Austria 9)22)25)
Informationen und Kontakt
Univ.Prof. Dr. Helga Kromp-Kolb Tel: +43 (1) 476 54/5601 [email protected]
Mag. Ingeborg Schwarzl Tel: +43 (1) 476 54/5618 [email protected]
Institute of Meteorology, BOKU, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna
http://www.wau.boku.ac.at/met.html, http://www.austroclim.at/
Dipl.Ing. Ursula Bodisch Tel: +43 (1) 313 04/3456 [email protected]
Federal Environment Agency http://www.umweltbundesamt.at/umwelt/
StartClim