Transcript World Energy: Now and Again

Our Clodhopper Footprint:
Some Hows and Whys
ANTH 210
17 November, 2005
Topics to Cover
• Energy use
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–
–
–
World patterns of energy use
National variation
Comparison of energy sources
Individual sources for renewable energy
• American culture and energy
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–
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Car culture and car advertising
Bigger and bigger houses
Industrial agriculture
Freedom and property rights
Contributions to our Footprint
(average Canadian, from book)
Type of land
Average hectares
Energy
Degraded
Garden
Crop
Pasture
Forest
Total
2.34
0.20
0.02
0.66
0.46
0.59
4.27
Energy Usage: 1750-2000
?
An Energy Dependent Society
Internet
Micro-processor
Environmental issues
Modifiers
N
uc
lea
r
Satellite
Energy Usage
WWII
WWI
Telecommunications
ns
o
b
r
a
Hydroc
Steam
Steam Power
Air
locomotive stations travel
Population Global
markets
growth
Internal combustion engine
1750
1800
1850
1900
Living
Living
standard
Standards
s
Drivers
1950
2000
Cook and Sheath, 1997
GDP and energy consumption
Projected World Supplies
1993
100
80
Solar, W ind
Geothermal
World Energy Demand
Coal
Natural
Gas
Crude Oil
20
1900
Nuclear Electric
Decreasing
Fossil Fuels
Billion
Barrels
of Oil
Equivalent 60
per Year
(GBOE)
40
100 BILLION
BARRELS
New Technologies
Hydroelectric
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Bioenergy
2040
2060
2080 2100
after Edwards,
AAPG 8/97
024839-2
24929
China, 1999
India, 1999
USA, 1999
Sectoral Comparisons
Transport
Energy
Use, US,
2003
Feel good
about taking
the bus?
Feel good
about taking
the train?
Energy Intensity: Developed Economies
Energy Intensity: China
Lifecycle Greenhouse Emissions
League Table
Energy Source
Coal (Hunter Valley to Japan)
Coal (IGCC, future technology)
Oil (Middle east to Japan)
LNG (NWS to Japan)
Pipeline Natural Gas (NWS to Perth)
Fuel cell using natural Gas
Nuclear (Japan)
Wind
Solar
Biomass (IGCC)
Lifecycle Emissions
(tonnes Co2e/MWhr)
865
766
728
442
493
~380
40
12.2
13.7
36
* Lifecycle emissions are the sum of emissions from
the point of extraction up to and including
emissions from end-use.
Cost and Greenhouse Emission from
Energy Productions
CO2 emissions
(Tonnes/MWh)
Generating Costs
(AUSc/kWh)
1.2
30
1
0.8
20
0.6
0.4
10
0.2
0
0
Photovoltaics
Solar Thermal
Wind
Biomass
Combustion
Dist. Energy
(FC, Turbines)
Gas, combined
cycle
Adv Black Coal
(IGCC ect)
Brown Coal PF
Source: from Lockhart 2001 (Energy News Vol.20 No.2 June 2002)
Title :
By :
Date :
Location :
Slide No: ‹#›
Natural Gas - A New Energy Paradigm for the Asia/Pacific Region
Diminishing Oil Supply
Probable Production Rates
40
2.1 trillion
barrels
30
World Oil Production to Year 2000
20
10
1.8 trillion
barrels
0
1850
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
YEARS
• Hubbert’s methods estimate future production.
• Discoverable Oil scenarios = areas under curve
2000
2025
2050
$90+
Crude Oil Prices 1860 - 1996
Crude Oil Prices 1860 - 1996
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
2007
5
Coal: Cheap, Dirty, Dangerous
Coal: Cheap, Dirty, Dangerous
Peat: Like Coal, only more so
Coal: Cheap, Dirty, Dangerous
Strip mine
Coal in the U.S. and China
Why is Coal so Attractive?
Nuclear energy:
Who needs it?
Nuclear energy:
Will it last?
Known Recoverable Resources* of Uranium
tonnes U
percentage of world
Australia
989,000 28%
Kazakhstan 622,000
18%
Canada
439,000 12%
South Africa 298,000
8%
Namibia
213,000 6%
Brazil
143,000 4%
Russian Fed.158,000
4%
USA
102,000 3%
Uzbekistan 93,000
3%
World total 3,537,000
Thus the world's present measured resources of uranium in the lower cost category
(3.5 Mt) and used only in conventional reactors, are enough to last for some 50 years.
This represents a higher level of assured resources than is normal for most minerals.
Further exploration and higher prices will certainly, on the basis of present geological
knowledge, yield further resources as present ones are used up. A doubling of price
from present levels could be expected to create about a tenfold increase in measured
resources, over time.
This is in fact suggested in the IAEA-NEA figures if those covering estimates of all
conventional resources are considered - 14.4 million tonnes, which is over 200 years'
supply at today's rate of consumption. This still ignores the technological factors
mentioned below. It also omits unconventional resources such as phosphate deposits
(22 Mt) and seawater (up to 4000 Mt), which would cost two to six times the present
market price to extract.
What about Wind?
Pros:
Seems to be approaching economic viability
Clean
Large supply
Cons:
Noisy?
Birds?
What about biomass: due for
another increase?
Share of Woodfuels in National Energy Consumption
Two Emerging Ideas
Biodiesel
Alcohol from Wood
Biodiesel- food oil based fuel
• Can be used in all diesel engines
• Slightly lower BTU than conventional
diesel
• Comes from short term C cycle so positive
impact on carbon credits
• Significantly lower emissions than
conventional diesel
Biodiesel materials courtesy Professor Sally Brown, CFR/Pavilion Pool
Environmental aspects
• Reduced net CO2 (not quite 100%)
• Reduced of SO2 by 100%
• Reduction of soot emissions by 4060%
• Extremely non-volatile, easily
decomposable (spills!)
• And it even lubes your engine better!
Biggest Barrier(s)
• High cost of raw materials
– (ever bought a gallon of vegetable oil???)
• Lack of infrastructure
• Lack of subsidies (unlike petroleum)
• Lack of raw materials
What's being used?
Austrian Biofuels Institute
World production (1000's tons)
Austrian Biofuels Institutue
Biosolids for Biodiesel
• By using biosolids as fertilizer
growing costs can be reduced
• Provide a non food chain crop for
biosolids
• Provide a means for cities to contract
to grow their own fuel
Let’s put this in perspective
Energy Consumption by Source, 1000t oil equivalent, 1999
Europe
World
Biodiesels again, 000t
Let’s put this in perspective
Estimated production from rapeseed: 2t/ha
Total US Petroleum consumption, 1999: 868 Mt
Energy ratio of biodiesel to petroleum: ~ .9
Land area necessary to produce enough biodiesel to replace
all U.S. petroleum: 482 Mha
Total U. S. arable land, 2005 175Mha
Go figure, s’il vous plait.
Potential Bio-Energy Technology Solutions Based
on Biomass from Forest Thinnings
Kevin T. Hodgson
Michael Andreu, Kristiina Vogt, Daniel Vogt, Robert Edmonds
Forest Systems and Bio-Energy Group
College of Forest Resources
University of Washington
Seattle, WA
http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.Forest_Energy/
41.1 million acres of treatable
timberland in WA & OR
20.7 million acres: considered
to be overly dense (red, yellow)
Total Cost of Fire Suppression, US
~532.6 million bone dry tons
of biomass can be removed
in WA & OR.
~28% is in trees 2 – 8” DBH
Equivalent ~149 million tons
$1,800,000,000
$1,600,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$800,000,000
$600,000,000
$400,000,000
$200,000,000
$0 2003 A strategic assessment of forest biomass and fuel
USFS
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
reduction treatments in western states
2003, Biggest Insurance Losses
($ billions)
US, To rnado es, hail
US/Canada, Hurricane Isabel
Wildfires
US, Thundersto rms, hail
US, " Cedar Fire" wildfire
France, Flo o ds, heavy rain
US, " Old fire" , wildfire
US, Thundersto rms, hail
US, Thundersto rms with hail
S. Ko rea, Typho o n M o emi
US, Winter Sto rm
0
1
2
3
4
The Economist,
March 20, 2004
Options for bio-fuels from wood
1. Bio-oil
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Pyrolysis oil (fast pyrolysis process)
Substitute for #6 residual fuel oil?
High water content (20-30%)
2. Alcohols
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
Ethanol: gasoline extender; transportation fuel; fuel
cell
Methanol: transportation fuel; chemical feedstock;
IDEAL fuel for PEM fuel cell
Alcohols from wood
1. Ethanol (EtOH)
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C2H5OH
Produced by fermentation of wood sugars
Compete against EtOH from corn, etc.?
2. Methanol (MeOH)
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CH3OH
Feedstock produced by gasification reactions
Compete against MeOH from natural gas
Methanol from wood
• Wood is a mixture of C, H, and O
• Gasification (controlled oxidation) produces a
mixture of:
–
–
–
–
H2, CO, CO2, H2O, CH4, “tars”, char, ash
“Synthesis gas”: CO + H2
tars are light hydrocarbons (benzene, napthalene, etc.)
Tars can be reformed into CO and H2
• Ni cell catalyst
Carbon Additions to Atmosphere1
Biomass to energy cycle
1
Combustion of Fossil Fuels
Ohlström, et. al: “New Concepts for Biofuels in Transportation”, VTT Research Notes #2074 (2001)
Syngas = CO + H
Biomass to Liquid
Fuel
2
Crude Syngas
Gasifier
Gas
Cleaning
Clean Syngas
Methanol
Reactor
Wood Biomass
Ash
Bio-Methanol
(Wood Alcohol)
Current methanol market
•
•
•
MeOH made from natural gas (CH4)
Very large facilities: > 800,000 mt/year
Cost comparison:
–
–
•
~ $6/GJ from natural gas
~ $21/GJ from wood (Finnish case)
Until CH4 price “skyrockets”, need some type of
government intervention
–
–
tax incentive
subsidy
So why are we such clodhoppers?
The open road…
Ford SUVS
Ferrari USA
Cadillac
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
So why are we such clodhoppers?
Mileage of cool cars
Model
Ford
Expedition
Ferrari
Maranallo
Cadillac
CTS-V
City
Mileage
14
Highway
Mileage
18
10
16
15
23
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
So why are we such clodhoppers?
Recreational off-highway use…
So why are we such clodhoppers?
Bigger and bigger houses
So why are we such clodhoppers?
Bigger and bigger houses
So why are we such clodhoppers?
Bigger and bigger houses
So why are we such clodhoppers?
Bigger and bigger houses
So why are we such clodhoppers?
Industrial Monocrop Agricultural Ecosystem
Sun
Energy
$
Air
Carbon,
Oxygen
Consumer
goods
Humans
Exchange
Value
-cides
Fertilizer
Single
crops
Nutrients
Water
source
Irrigation
Machinery
Fossil
Fuel
energy: Plowing
Harrowing, Planting
Fencing, Weeding
Harvesting,
Pest Control,
Storage, etc.
Nutrients
Water
FARMLAND