Transcript Boeing Fusion Energy Strategic Plan

Fusion RAMI Evolution, part 1 of 2:
A Low TRL RAMI Process for Fusion
Energy Research and Development
Tom Weaver
I-Li Lu, Ph.D.
Counter CBRNE DEW
Applied Statistics
Platform Systems Technology
Platform Performance Technology
Boeing Research and Technology
Boeing Research and Technology
ARIES 2011 Quarter #2 Review
27-28 July, 2011; Gaithersburg, Maryland
Page 1 of 18
Fusion RAMI Strategy
Tailor aerospace/nuclear industrial
RM&SH process to fusion
Enlisted aid of relevant support groups
• I-Li Lu:
Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Knowledge Capture
Boeing Research and Technology
• James Robinson:
Reliability, Maintainability, and Testability
Boeing Commercial Aircraft
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
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Presentation Agenda
• Two parts
– 1) Administration, Background, and Theory
– 2) Fusion application of the process
• Key Concepts
– RAMI model→test→model cycle shown effective in
aerospace
– Develop a fusion plant RAMI estimating tool including
available data and physics models for missing data
– Use tool results to advise experiment plans to
increase benefits and reduce risks
– Repeat cycle with more detailed tool and more
informative tests
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
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Part 1
Administration and Process
Background and Theory
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
Page 4 of 18
June – Sept 2011 Activity
Responsible
Entity
Input
Provided
Customer and
Regulator
SoW and
Spec Rqmts
Program
Manager
SoW and
Spec Rqmts
Prime
Contractor
Standards
“Command
Media”
RAMI
Engineering
Data, Methods, Tools,
Expertise, Processes
CAE/CAD/CAM
Systems
Requirements
Logistics
Design
Engineering
Candidate Logistics
Support Analyses
HW & SW Rqmts
Systems and
Safety
Engineering
Requirements
Suppliers
RAMI Data
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
Design Data
RAMI Process
Define
RAMI
Program
Collect &
Provide
Experience
Data
Output
Provide
RAMI
in the
Product
Assess
RAMI
In
Design
And
Production
Requirements
and Data
RAMI
“Design”
Incorporation
of RAMI in
Design
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Oct – Dec 2011 Activity
Responsible
Entity
Input
Provided
Customer and
Regulator
SoW and
Spec Rqmts
Program
Manager
SoW and
Spec Rqmts
Prime
Contractor
Standards
“Command
Media”
RAMI
Engineering
Data, Methods, Tools,
Expertise, Processes
CAE/CAD/CAM
Systems
Requirements
Logistics
Design
Engineering
Candidate Logistics
Support Analyses
HW & SW Rqmts
Systems and
Safety
Engineering
Requirements
Suppliers
RAMI Data
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
Design Data
RAMI Process
Define
RAMI
Program
Collect &
Provide
Experience
Data
Output
Provide
RAMI
in the
Product
Assess
RAMI
In
Design
And
Production
Requirements
and Data
RAMI
“Design”
Incorporation
of RAMI in
Design
Page 6 of 18
Critical Fusion R&D Issue
• Chicken-and-Egg Problem
– Need more data
– Need facilities to get data
– Need to know what to build with scarce funds
– Need more data
• ICF found a defense escape route
• Industrial RAMI may show way out for MCF
– Data Mining
– Engineering-guided Experiment Planning with
RAMI as prototype
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
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Critical Fusion RAMI Issue
• Not unique in attempting RAMI estimation and
enhancement across a major technological leap;
however,
• The gap the technological leap fusion is to cross
is unusually large.
• Aerospace and military engineering addressing
the issue
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
Page 8 of 18
Introduction to RCM
Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM)
An analytical process used to determine appropriate
failure management strategies to ensure safe and
cost-effective operations of a physical asset in a
specific operating environment.
Goal of RCM
•
•
Avoid or reduce failure CONSEQUENCES
Not necessarily avoid failures (failure prevention
remains an important part of the process, it is just
recognized as never 100% possible)
Failure Consequences are the effects of failure on:
• Personal and Equipment Safety
• Environmental Health/Compliance
• Operations
• Economics
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
Page 9 of 18
RCM Definition
• SAE JA1011 “Evaluation Criteria for RCM
Processes” defines seven questions for RCM:
•
What are the functions…of the asset…(functions)?
•
In what ways can it fail…(functional failures)?
• What causes each functional failure (failure modes)?
• What happens when each failure occurs (failure effects)?
• In what way does each failure matter
(failure consequences)?
• What should be done…(proactive tasks and intervals)?
• What should be done if a suitable proactive task
cannot be found?
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
Page 10 of 18
RCM History
•
Early PM Programs based on concept that periodic
overhauls ensured reliability and, therefore, safety
Overhaul: Tearing down and rebuilding components
•
By the 1960s:
• Introduction of 747, DC-10, L-1011 led airlines to
conclusion that current preventive maintenance
philosophies were unsustainable
• FAA and Commercial Aviation Industry formed a group
to study preventive maintenance
• FAA/Airline Group conclusion: overhauls had little or
no effect on overall reliability or safety in many cases
• Why?
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
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Assumptions Needed Challenging
What the airlines and manufacturers discovered.
 Statistical analysis showed, in most cases, no change in
safety or reliability when overhaul limits changed.
 Initial overhaul limits were not analytically based.
Facts about overhauls
 Many failure modes do not
support overhaul philosophyhave no ‘right’ overhaul time.
 Lose considerable component
life.
 Overhauls re-introduce infant
mortality failures.
Conditional Probability
of Failure
 High repair costs for little or no benefits.
Overhaul interval
Time
Led to the creation of the “Maintenance Steering Group”
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
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Found 6 Patterns of Failure
Modes of part failures must be characterized
Fraction of parts in
Civil Aircraft
Condition
monitoring is
only effective
on a small
fraction of
parts
Infant Mortality
“Bathtub” curve
Wear out zone
Clearly defined
wear out zone
Wear out zone
Opportunity
for Condition
Based
Maintenance
4%
Continuous degradation
2%
Continuous degradation, but no defined wear out zone or age
5%
Low chance of early failure to a constant probability of failure
7%
14%
Constant probability of failure (random failure)
High Infant Mortality dropping to constant or slowly increasing probability of failure
68%
Condition-Based Maintenance becomes an element of the new approach
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
Page 13 of 18
Maintenance Generations
 1960s maintenance mostly still used a first generation
“fix it when it breaks” philosophy
 Philosophy needed changing in order to achieve greater
expectations
– Improved availability, reliability, safety, cost effectiveness, etc.
This is an excerpt of the first chapter of the book "Reliability-centered Maintenance" by John Moubray.
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
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New Techniques Example
ICBM maintenance was improved by a relook at equipment monitoring,
analysis and design
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
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The Solution
Boeing engineers and statisticians have developed a Decision Support System that
is Data-Driven, Knowledge-Guided, and Statistical-Based, with analysis that will
provide Cost and Risk Optimized solutions.
Key Factors:
–
The need surfaced in Maintenance Steering Group (MSG) international oversight body.
–
All major regulatory agencies and OEMs participate.
–
Boeing guided the development of the Issue Paper for Scheduled Maintenance
–
FAA has approved the Issue Paper and tool
–
Centralized Task Force with multi-disciplinary approach : Subject Matter Experts from
Engineering, Information Technology, Statistics, Operations Research, Data/Text Mining,
and Economics.
Remark: what distinguishes Boeing approach
•
Novel measures for degradation using Latent and Evident Lifetimes
•
Bottom-Up approach for task and system reliability
•
Advanced statistical reliability methods developed by thinking outside the box
•
Centralized software development and technology integration
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
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Next Step
Part 2, Fusion Application of the Process
will be after a break
ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
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ARIES Quarterly Review
Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011
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