Transcript APRIL MEETING 3.11.09x - Workspace

Linda Davies – Centre for Environmental Policy,
Imperial College London
Sheate B.(Imperial), Wade R.(Abertay), Scholes L.(Middlesex), Gaston K.(Sheffield),
Batty M.(UCL), Grimmond S.(King’s),
Harris J.(Cranfield), Beck H.(CABE Space),
Kwiatkowski L.(Imperial), Metcalfe R.(Oxford)
Phase 1 – Evolving Conceptual Framework issues
Drivers of Change
• Environmental change (e.g. rainfall, sea level)
Future
Scenarios
for the UK
• Trends (e.g. markets, preferences, demographic)
Goods
Human
wellbeing
Values
• Policies
Ecosystem
services
Ecosystems
Biodiversity
2
Avoiding double accounting – adapted from Fisher et al 2008
Physical and chemical inputs
Primary and intermediate
processes
Soil
Formation
Biodiversity
Nutrient
cycling
Pollination
Final ecosystem
services
Biomass
Goods/Benefits
Value of
goods...
...of which
ES value
Clean
water
provision
Drinking
water
£
£
Food
production
Cereals,
meat, etc.
£
£
Timber
£
£
£
£
Trees
Primary
production
People
Other capital
inputs
Water
regulation
Flood
protection
3
Ecosystem type, services and examples of goods
Ecosystem
service type
Primary & Intermediate
ecosystem services and
processes
Provisioning
Cultural
Climate regulation
Pollination
Regulating
Supporting
Final ecosystem services (example of goods)
Crops, livestock, fisheries (food)
Peat bog (energy, fertiliser)
Water quantity (domestic and industrial water)
Trees (energy, carbon sequestration)
Purified water (drinking water)
Wild species diversity (crop relatives, bio-prospecting)
Meaningful places (aesthetics, recreation, tourism,
education)
Wildlife (aesthetics, education, tourism, recreation)
Local climate (equable climate)
Stabilising vegetation and habitats (erosion control)
Water availability (flood prevention)
Waste breakdown and accumulation (healthy environment)
Natural enemies (disease control)
Detoxification (clean air and water)
Weathering
Primary production
Decomposition
Soil formation
Nutrient cycling
Water cycling
Ecological interactions
4
Valuation of goods and ecosystem services
Physical and chemical inputs
Primary and intermediate
processes
Weathering
Primary production
Decomposition
Final ecosystem
services
Value of
goods...
…ES
value
Food
£
£
Drinking water
£
£
Trees
Fibre
£
£
Peat
Energy
£
£
Natural medicine
£
£
£
£
£
£
Equable climate
£
£
Flood control
£
£
Stabilising vegetation
Erosion control
£
£
Natural enemies
Disease control
£
£
£
£
£
£
£
£
Crops, livestock, fisheries
Water availability
Wild species diversity
Nutrient cycling
Waste breakdown
Detoxification
Purified water
Climate regulation
Pollination
Evolutionary processes
Local climate
Meaningful places
Wild species diversity
Ecological interactions
People
Goods/Benefits
Soil formation
Water cycling
Other capital
inputs
Unknown services
Pollution control
Good health
Unknown
5
List of Change Measures
Environmental change
Climate change (temperature, precipitation)
Sea level
Trends
Land use / land cover
Species introduction / removal
External inputs (pollution emissions, fertiliser inputs)
Harvest / resource use
Demographic (population growth, demographic change, ethnicity, migration)
Technology adaptation (agricultural prices, market forces??)
Policies
Government subsidy levels
Pollution control legislation
6
Defining the Urban Environment
• Identified need to use more detailed urban land
classifications than those present in Land cover maps
• The use of Office of National Statistics urban area
definitions and corresponding area boundaries is
proposed – related to population size
• Urban assessment will include recognition of scale:
Small cities
(<50,000)
Medium cities
(50,000250,000)
Large cities
(>250,000)
• 84% population of England live in urban areas (50m)
• Country and regional differences
Sub-urban habitat classes
Classes were grouped
with reference to
Planning Policy
Guidance 17 and the
provision of ecosystem
services and goods
Green belt important as
peri-urban mixed habitat
Natural and seminatural urban
green space
Public parks and
gardens
Green corridors
Outdoor sports
facilities
Amenity green
space
Allotments,
community
gardens and urban
farms
Cemeteries and
churchyards
Street trees
Brownfield land
(inc. domestic
gardens)
Water (natural)
Water (artificial)
Green belt
Goods from the urban habitat
Cultural services
Recreation (inc. exercise), aesthetics, tourism, cultural heritage,
education, promotion of social cohesion and reduced crime
Regulatory services
• Flood protection, clean air and water, equable climate, noise
reduction, erosion control, waste management
Provisional services
• Food, fibre, drinking water
Multi-functionality of open spaces:
Gardens, allotments (16/16) v Brownfield (5/16)
Nutrient
cycling
Soil formation
Water cycling
Climate
regulation
Pollution
regulation
Pollination
Ecological
interactions
Final services
Primary
production
Intermediate services
Primary services
Services from the Urban habitat
Crops, fisheries
Green waste
Water quantity
Purified water
Trees
Water availability
Detoxification
Local climate
Stabilising vegetation
and habitats
Noise regulation
Waste breakdown
Meaningful places
Wild species diversity
Trends in sub-urban habitats
• Difficult to interpret temporal and spatial trends due to lack of detailed
national mapping and inconsistencies in typology, data collection and
accessibility at the local and regional level.
• However, good scope for case studies
Specific areas of interest:
• Allotments: over the last 50 years – declined by 90%
• SO2 down, NO2,PM10 exceed health standards, Ozone up
• Greenbelt : new housing at rate of 2% per annum
• Urban street trees - decline in tree planting over last decade and
deterioration in inner city tree health
• The decline in extent of private gardens and associated biodiversity
• Biodiversity: decline in high density areas
• Impact of increasing extent of non-permeable surfaces
• Extent and trends in brownfield ?
Drivers of change
• Climate: increase in summer temperatures
incr. heat island effect, limited cooling space and
surfaces
• Extreme conditions (rainfall) more likely
• Eutrophication – frequent, abundant lichens in
London are all nitrophytes, 50 years ago all
acidophytes - affects biodiversity and community st.
• Population increase – more housing on brownfield,
more fragmentation, less soil, lower biodiversity
• Some positive signs - transport successes
Sustainable management
Knowledge gaps
• Multi-functional space, SUDs, tree strategy
• Better use of brownfield
• No inventory of urban green space: land
classification datasets are disparate, lack
harmonisation, of poor resolution
• Typology
• Very limited knowledge of urban biodiversity and its
importance to human health
• Poor knowledge of gardens – surfaces and
biodiversity
Where do we go from here?
Potential scenarios:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ecosystem services from Brownfield and Green Belt
Permeable services (e.g. benefits from various policies,
surfaces, i.e.. restricting front garden conversion to parking)
River Brent restoration study
Barnes Wetland (species, water quality, public perception)
Temp increase under different % land cover (trees, )
Thames gateway as a site for scenario testing – land use data
Where is the desired focus?