Transcript Dynamic Complex Dinosaur Ecosystems Simulation / Modeling Bill Yu

Dynamic Complex Dinosaur Ecosystems
Simulation / Modeling
Bill Yu
Purpose
 The purpose of my research project is to create a simulation of a
many-species, non-static, many-variable ecosystem
 According to user preferences, many desired ecosystem simulations
will be able to be run. In my case, I am focusing limiting the species
to the dinosaurs of the late Cretaceous era
Subject / Goals
 The scope of my project will include hypothetical situations, which
will be applicable to real-life, and possibly a real-world model
 Based on known facts of the dinosaurs, the user will be able to input
unknown or hypothetical facts about dinosaurs and thus create a
possible simulation of what could have happened on our Earth in the
Cretaceous era
Overview
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Producer / Predator / Prey dinosaur ecosystem based on the late
Cretaceous era with chance factors
Consequence algorithm for dinosaur conflicts
Trait accumulation
Reproduction algorithm for mutations and creations of new species
Natural disasters
Expected Results
 I will validate success by the accuracy as represented by the common
behavior of real world ecosystems
 For example, if there are many carnivores preying on a few
herbivores, the expected results in sequence would be:
 1 – Herbivores are near extinction / are extinct.
 2 – Carnivores begin to die out.
 3 – Grass regrows fully.
Other Research
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Cellular Automata Model of Macroevolution: the constant
evolution of a biomass of a multi-species system
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A Jump-Growth Model for Predator-Prey Dynamics: derivation
and application to marine ecosystems: evolution to catch prey,
equation to calculate populations
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Predator-Prey Model: linear rate (Lotka-Volterra), group immunity
(Kermack-McKendrick), constant uptake (Jacob-Monod), carrying
maximum capacity (Logistic), self-predation (Ricker's)
Other Research
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Biomechanics of Running Indicates Endothermy in Bipedal
Dinosaurs: energy-size ratio, warm-blooded / endothermic
dinosaurs
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Fossil Record of Predation in Dinosaurs: predatory features,
consumption records, chemical analyses
Usage
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Load the program
Use sliders
Hit 'Setup'
'Step' for 1 iteration, 'Go' for continuous (adjusted by speed bar at
the top)
Procedures / Methods
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Using NetLogo
Accomplishing by building top-down, building simple, then
advancing to more advanced functions
A complicated simulated system with many variables for the user to
control
BehaviorSpace for data storage
Timeline
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Q1 : Basics – Predator-prey, herbivore-producer, basic predation,
modeling
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Q2 : Dinosaur focus – narrowed late Cretaceous, predation range,
additional 2 species, reproduction algorithm, prey selection
algorithm, movement algorithm
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By the end of the 3rd quarter I will probably have implemented
many more dinosaur species. There could be more than one type of
producer, water factors, geological factors, natural disasters, and
possibly egg-periods where the offspring arrival into the
ecosystem simulation is delayed (hatching)
Project Testing / Problems
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Project testing simply consists of running the program and
comparing it to the expected results, and finding inconsistencies
with real-life dinosaur simulation possibilities and expected
ecosystem results
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The NetLogo program runs almost exclusively to working
programs – if it's incomplete, it can not run, instead giving an error
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Currently, my program runs existing methods without error
Algorithms
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Grass regrowth
Generic consumption
Conflict sequence (nearly finished)
Predation range
Reproduction
Prey selection
Natural disaster (developing)
Hypothesis
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Due to the harsh environment of the dinosaur ages, species
fluctuations as the result of these powerful beasts' conflicts can
cause an imbalance in the ecosystem.
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Learning from the results given the specific parameters, based on
the populations involved
Results
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1 Predator / High Energy Gain / High Reproduction
Invasive Species Effect