Transcript The Common Vision - Census of Marine Life Secretariat

Potential Approaches in the 2010
report: “The Common Vision”
Mike Sinclair
Bedford Institute of Oceanography
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Setting the Stage for Realm
Discussions
Questions from SSC:
-What is the “common vision” for all of the
CoML research?
-What did we learn from the presentations of
discovery during the Public Symposium?
-What are the goals for synthesis at both the
project and inter-project levels?
-What are the goals at the global versus
regional levels?
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Does anyone
recognize this wellworn path?
Sand walk at Down
House, Kent (Darwin’s
home)
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Historical Perspective on
Syntheses of Ecological
Observations -150 yrs ago
• Synthesis of “First census of life” by Charles
Darwin and Alfred Wallace
-Beagle(1831 to 1836)
-Malay Archipelago(1854 to …..?)
-November 1857 a remarkable period of synthesis:
Darwin writing chapter 9 of his big book (never
published), Wallace writing ‘Note on the Theory
of Permanent and Geographic Varieties’
-Conceptual breakthrough jointly published in 1858:
Natural Selection as the process explaining
patterns of species diversity
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Historical Perspective on
Syntheses of Ecological
Observations-80 yrs ago
• Synthesis of first(?) “Census of Terrestrial Arctic
Life”, Oxford University Expedition to
Spitsbergen
-Ecological survey of a comparatively simple
system of Arctic communities
-Generated classic ‘Animal Ecology’, by Charles
Elton in 1927(10 impressions by 1967)
-Conceptual advances included niche concept,
food-chains, pyramid of numbers…..
-Established modern approach to population and 5
community ecology
Historical Perspective on
Syntheses of Ecological
Observations -conclusions
• Observations from historical perspective:
-prepared minds (individuals!)
-intensive analyses of diverse empirical
observations
-innovative thinking
-unexpected conceptual advances generating
explanatory power and predictions
-time lag between observations and syntheses
-generally done by young scientists (Darwin, 33;
Wallace, 35; Elton, 26)
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WOCE “Census”: Synthesis from
processes to predictions
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WOCE  Argo: Census, processes, predictions
Argo Real Time Status 01/11/2007
5-day forecast of Sea Surface Temperature (oC)
3006 Active Floats
Valid 00Z 05 Nov 2007
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Initial Discussions on CoML
Synthesis-1
• Led by Ram Myers in October 2005, provides
thoughts on structure and content of synthesis:
-2010 “Domesday Book” of marine life
-Mechanistic understanding of the spatial and
temporal patterns of biodiversity
-Biodiversity conservation in the global oceans
-Technology and protocols
-Intellectual capacity
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Initial Discussions on CoML
Synthesis-2
• Examples of priorities for inter-project synthesis on
benthic ecology conceptual issues from 2006 Maastricht
ICES discussion group co-chaired by Roland Pitcher
(CReefs) and Steve Smith (GoMA):
-Characterizing and predicting spatial patterns in benthic
community types at a variety of scales (temporal/spatial)
based upon depth, currents, energy sources, sediments,
etc. (include surrogates)
-Characterizing sensitivity and recovery rates of benthic
community types to natural and anthropogenic
disturbance, including the role of biodiversity in stability
-Predicting indirect consequences of disturbances to
benthic communities on the ecosystems as a whole
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Benign
Adverse
Stable
Disturbed
Predicted sensitivity to disturbance
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Initial Discussions on CoML
Synthesis-3
• Examples of “Big Issues” from projects in Framework
Report:
-FMAP: What shapes patterns of marine biodiversity in the
past, present, and future; and how can we predict future
changes…
-CeDAMar: Has the abyss been a region of adaptive
radiation and evolutionary novelty, or merely a sink for
species displaced from more hospitable slope habitats…
-MAR-ECO: Understand the patterns of distribution,
abundance and trophic relationships of the organisms…
and identify and model ecological processes that cause
variability in these patterns…
Most projects identify understanding of processes and
enhancing predictive capacity as a “big issue”
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Summary of Perspective of CoML
Scientists
• Strong focus in synthesis for understanding
processes:
- interpretation of patterns, and capacity for
predictions
- contribute to ecological theory (e.g. test
Hubbell’s 2001“Neutral Theory” of biodiversity in
a marine biogeographic context)
- emerging needs of the “ecosystem approach” to
integrated management (causality and
cumulative effects)
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“The Common Vision” for CoML
Research
• Looked again for help from Darwin:
“My mind seems to have become a kind of
machine for grinding general laws out of
large collections of facts…” (from his
autobiography)
-captures the desire for understanding
ecological processes
-misses the links to conservation
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A “Common Vision” for CoML
Research
• A Vision:
- Skill-full integrated management of ocean-use
activities based on robust interpretations and
predictions of patterns of marine biodiversity
• Recall that “Mission” of CoML is:
-”Assess and explain the changing diversity,
distribution, and abundance of marine species
from the past to the present, and project future
marine life.”
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Species Richness & Ecosystem Control
Overfishing
• Reduces species richness
• May cause flip from
bottom – up to top –
down control (Frank et
al., 2007)
Need to develop quantitative understanding of relationships
amongst exploitation & species richness & ocean climate
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From Phillipe Cury
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Closing Comments
• “The voyage of the Beagle has been by far
the most important event in my life, and
has determined my whole career.”
-from a “Census of Life” to “a grand
synthesis”
-we need to start walking on our “thinking
path”
-Realm discussions are a step on that path
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Darwin’s
“Thinking Path”
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The end
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A relevant comment by MacArthur
and Wilson, 40 years ago
• “Global patterns of distribution also need to
be reconsidered. We know that species
diversity, relative abundance, and
population geometry change with climate.
Such variation affects on the one hand the
structure, stability, and energy flow of the
plant and animal communities. It must also
affect the rate and perhaps mode of
speciation, together with the propensity for
adaptive radiation”.(page 182, “The Theory
of Island Biogeography”)
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Historical Perspective on
Syntheses of Ecological
Observations-40 yrs ago
• The Theory of Island Biogeography(1967)
by Robert MacArthur and Edward Wilson
• Perhaps a “Census of Island Life”
-Classical equilibrium theory of island
biogeograhy
-Interprets patterns of species by area
-Basis of new ‘Neutral Theory’ of biodiversity
in a biogeographic context (Hubbell 2001)
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