Transcript ENWAMA Belfast March 2010 Rehabilitation of water regime in

Faculty of Environment: Martin Neruda, Tomáš
Přikryl, Jitka Fikarová
River Board Povodí Ohře: Lucie Tichá
Belfast, Questor, 9.3.-12.3.2010
Content
 Monitoring in Chabařovice and Most lakes
 Rehabilitation of Černý potok stream
 Rainfall-runoff modelling with Artificial Neural Networks
Chabařovice lake
Measuring profiles:
 Eutrophication reservoir: 3 places:
− 1) inside the reservoir - in the other end of the reservoir
− 2) inside the reservoir - around the outlet
− 3) outside of the reservoir - below the outlet in the
channel
 Chabařovice lake: 1 place – inside the lake in the north
– west part
Chabařovice lake – area of interest
Measuring profiles
Methodology
 Catch a small fish and plankton with special net
 Make a conservation in a small plastic bottle with a
chemicals
 Idea is to say which species of fish come to the lake
because of their influence to the fish stock
 From the last year: research of plankton species to
have a detailed picture about the lake‘s ecosystem
Eutrophication lake - in the other end of the
reservoir
 23. 7. 2009 – fish results:
 10 pieces of Scardinius erythrophthalmus
 + 1 piece of Tinca tinca
Eutrophication reservoir - around the outlet
 28. 7. 2009 – fish results: 10 pieces of Scardinius
erythrophthalmus
 26. 10. 2009 – plankton results: Cyclops vicinus, Moina
macrocopa, Ceriodaphnia reciculata – lots of them
Eutrophication lake - below the outlet
in the channel
 No fish species
 Plenty of the invertebrates (juveniles of insects), many
species of plankton – failed the conservation
Chabařovice lake – inside the
lake in NW part
 Aimed only to plankton: 7. 9. 2009 Metacyclops
gracilis, Melosira varicus, cyclops sp. Daphnia
magna – many of them
Most lake – new one
Profiles: 2 places
 1) Inside „Most“ lake
 2) Small lake above Most lake
Most lake - inside
 14. 8. 2009 small species of plankton
 12. 11. 2009 Chydorus sphaericus, Daphnia magna,
Acanthocyclops nanus – many of them
Small lake above the Most lake
 5 pieces of Scardinius erythrophthalmus
 Small species of plankton (algae)
Černý potok stream
 In Ore mountains – north from Usti – boarder with
Germany
 2 phases of rehabilitation:
 1) 1st August- 31st December 2009
 2) 1st August 2010 – 31st December 2010
 Organised by Agency for Nature Conservation and
Landscape Protection of the Czech Republic in Ústí
nad Labem
 Pictures from October 2009:
Information about Rainfall-runoff modelling
 Main goal: improving flood warning system in Czech
Hydrometeorological Institute
 For small size river basins
 Based on several time series of hourly measured data
 For short time runoff predictions (1-6 hours) based on
runoff and rainfall data
R-R modelling
 Significant data for prediction (made by correlation
analysis): runoff data, short time rainfall history, API
values
 Multilayer perceptron
 Radial basis function
 Results made in 6 weeks internship (Petr Paščenko)
within the scope of the project HPC Europa 2 at the
EPCC Department of the Edinburgh University
Results
 Ploučnice River
 Main problem:
 - overtraining of the network – poor generalization
 - small number of extreme events which makes it
difficult for a model to predict the amplitude of the
event
Results
 Experiments with absolute and relative runoff
prediction
 Neural model shows about 5 % improvement in terms
of efficiency coefficient over linear models
Results
 Best behavior - Multilayer perceptrons with one
hidden layer trained by back propagation algorithm
and predicting relative runoff
 Genetically evolved input filter improves the
performance of yet another 5 %
Future
 Experiments in on-line prediction using real-time data
from Smeda River (Jizerské hory mountains) with 6
hours lead time forecast
 Following the operational reality we will focus on
classification of the runoffs into flood alert levels
Results
The two diagrams show the statistically relevant input
variables for the two linear regression models. The red
cells variables have 0.001, the violet have 0.01, the blue
0.1 and the white cells stand for less significant inputs.
Thank you for your attention