California`s Water Future: Keeping the Dream Alive
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Transcript California`s Water Future: Keeping the Dream Alive
Envisioning Futures for the
Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Ellen Hanak
Public Policy Institute of California
Jay Lund
University of California, Davis
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Authored by Interdisciplinary Team
Economists:
Ellen Hanak, PPIC
Richard Howitt, UC Davis
Engineers:
Jay Lund, UC Davis
William Fleenor, UC Davis
Geologist:
Jeffrey Mount, UC Davis
Biologist:
Peter Moyle, UC Davis
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Major Themes
Current Delta is unsustainable for almost all
stakeholders
Improved understanding of the Delta provides
opportunities for new solutions
Promising alternatives exist
Most Delta users have ability to adapt
Promising solutions are unlikely to arise from a
stakeholder-only process
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Outline
Why the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternatives
Screening of alternatives
Recommendations
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The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Above sea level
Sea level to -10 feet
-10 feet to -15 feet
-15 feet and below
Export
pumps
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Why the Delta Matters to Californians
Water Supply
Ecosystem
Agriculture
Infrastructure
Recreation
Housing
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Outline
Why the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternatives
Screening of alternatives
Conclusions and recommendations
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A Three-pronged Crisis
Levees at increasing risk
– Sea level rise and sinking land
– Floods and earthquakes
Steep declines in many fish species
– Many are “listed”
– Culprits: invasive species, habitat loss,
pumps
Governing institutions lacking
– Resurgence of legal actions
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Emerging Policy Responses
New studies on fish declines and levee risks
Emergency funds for levee repairs
“Delta Vision” process
Bay-Delta Conservation Plan
Stakeholders promoting several approaches
– Shoring up levees, peripheral canal,
reduced water exports
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Outline
Why the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternatives
Screening of alternatives
Recommendations
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Since 1920s, California Policy
Has Aimed to Keep the Delta Fresh
,
,
1945 USBR report
Delta farmers and water exporters benefit from low salinity
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In 1940s, Central Valley Project Created
“Hydraulic Barrier” for Water Exports
Arrows show
movement of
fresh water
from storage
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Hydraulic Barrier Prevents Seasonal
and Dry-year Salinity Incursions
Dotted lines
show extent
of saltwater
incursions
1870s drought
Hydraulic barrier
(since 1940s)
Summers, 1908-1917
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But Static, Freshwater Delta Not Good for
Native Species
Native species evolved in a
fluctuating Delta
Asiatic clam
Alien species have taken hold and
harm native species
Alien species do best with constant
salinity (fresh or saline)
Restoring fluctuating conditions
may be key to native species’
survival
Brazilian waterweed
Overbite clam
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Outline
Why the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternatives
Screening of alternatives
Recommendations
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Nine Delta Alternatives
Freshwater Delta
– Two levee-based alternatives
– Physical salinity barrier
Fluctuating Delta
– Two peripheral canal alternatives
– Armored-island aqueduct
Reduced-exports Delta (*also fluctuating)
– Opportunistic Delta*
– Eco-Delta*
– Abandoned Delta
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5) South Delta Restoration Aqueduct:
A New Peripheral Canal Idea
Main rivers
Brackish tidal area
Delta waterways
Freshwater tidal area
Canal
Optional canal
Release facility
Improves South
Delta and lower San
Joaquin River water
quality
Lower San Joaquin
flood bypass for
flood control and
ecosystem benefits
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6) Armored-Island Aqueduct:
A Through-Delta Solution
Channel to river
Dredged channel
Fortified levee
Potential flooded islands
Keeps eastern Delta
fresh
Allows western and
central Delta to
fluctuate
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8) Eco-Delta: An Example of
Local Specialization
Main rivers
Brackish tidal area
Delta waterways
Freshwater tidal area
Wetlands
Flooded islands/bypass
Experimental
Possible storage
Upland game/waterfowl
Allows opportunistic
pumping, but at
lower levels
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Outline
Why the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternatives
Screening of alternatives
Recommendations
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Screening Criteria
Ecosystem performance
Water exports
Economic and financial costs
– Focus: water supply and salinity
– Tools: models and existing studies
Other Delta services (qualitative)
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Fluctuating Delta Alternatives
Are Most Promising
Alternatives
Environmental
Performance
Annual Water
Exports
Economic and
Financial Costs
1. Levees as Usual
Poor
0 – 6+ maf
~$2 Billion +
failures
2. Fortress Delta
Poor
> $4 Billion +
lost islands
3. Saltwater Barrier
Poor
$2 – 3 Billion +
lost islands
6+ maf
4. Peripheral Canal Plus
5. South Delta Aqueduct
6. Armored-Island
Aqueduct
Promising allows Delta to
fluctuate
$2 – 3 Billion +
< $70 M/year
Mixed
$1 – 2 Billion +
< $30 M/year
$2 – 3 Billion +
< $41 M/year
Promising
2 – 8 maf
$0.7 – 2.2 Billion +
< $170 M/year
8. Eco-Delta
Best?
1 – 5 maf
Several $ Billion +
< $600 M/year
9. Abandoned Delta
Poor
0
7. Opportunistic Delta
$500 Million +
~$1.2 Billion/year
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Outline
Why the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternatives
Screening of alternatives
Recommendations
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Steps Needed for a Long-term Solution
Focus on promising alternatives
Create technical track to explore solutions with
problem-solving R&D
Enhance regional and statewide representation
in Delta land use decisions (e.g. SF BCDC)
Implement “beneficiaries pay” financing
Establish mitigation mechanisms – everyone will
not “get better together”
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“No Regrets” Short-term Actions
Emergency preparedness
“Do not resuscitate” list for some islands
Delta land use
– Flood control guidelines for urbanization
– Habitat protection
Restoration projects for pelagic fish habitat
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Questions?
For the full report, research brief, and other
materials, go to: www.ppic.org
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