Transcript The peak of Mt Kilimanjaro as it has not been seen for 11000 years

Climate Change
Effects on Biodiversity
The peak of Mt Kilimanjaro as it has
not been seen for 11,000 years
1980
1980
2007
2007
Upsala glacier
1928
2004
Foto: © Greenpeace/De Agostini/Beltra
Drivers of loss
Latest IPCC report summary (2/07)
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Ocean absorbing > 80% extra heat, causing
water to expand and sea levels to rise.
 1961 and 2003 average sea level rose by
1.8mm a year.
 1993 and 2003 rose by 3.1mm a year.
Arctic temperatures increased x2 the global
average rate over the past 100 years, and the
ice has shrunk by 2.7% each decade.
More intense and longer droughts, particularly in
the tropics and sub-tropics
North Atlantic there has been an increase in the
incidence of typhoons and hurricanes.
Biodiversity implications?
Die-offs
Coral bleaching die-offs of up to 50% in the
Indian Ocean
Extinctions
A species of Golden Toad in Costa Rica
Life Cycles
Gothic marmots emerge from hibernation
about a month earlier than 30 years ago
Physiology
The average weight of adult female polar
bears has decreased by more than 20%
over the last 25 years
A big “loser”: Coral Reefs
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Escalating level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is
making the world's oceans more acidic (not a simple C
“sink”)
pH of oceans stable 1000 -- 1800, dropped one-tenth of
a unit since the Industrial Revolution and likely another
0.3 units by 2100
CO2 forms carbonic acid and lowers ocean pH, making it
harder for corals, plankton and marine snails to form
their body parts.
Big changes in “Phenology” with
unknown effects…advance of spring events
(bud burst, flowering, breaking hibernation,
migrating, breeding)
Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA. 2003.
Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. NATURE 421 (6918):
Alastair Fitter…
Poleward range shifts have been documented
for individual species, as have expansions of
warm-adapted communities, on all
continents and in most of the major oceans.
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Nearly 60% of the 305
species found in North
America in winter are on
the move, shifting their
ranges northward by an
average of 35 miles.
Range-restricted species, particularly polar and
mountaintop species, show more severe range
contractions than other groups and have been the
first groups in which whole species have gone
extinct due to recent climate change
Evolutionary responses have been
documented (mainly in insects), but
there is little evidence that observed
genetic shifts are of the type or
magnitude to prevent predicted species
extinctions.
Turtles and global warming
Painted Turtles - From Janzen
PNAS (1994)
Conservation Implications
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Hatchling loggerhead turtles in Florida from 87 to
99.9 percent females
Heavily influenced by beach management
a 2 degree C warming of the sand would put
temperatures solidly in the female- producing range
for the entire population
(N. Mrosvovsky and J. Provancha, "Sex ratio of hatchling
loggerhead sea turtles: data and estimates from a 5-year study,"
Canadian Journal of Zoology, v. 70, p. 530 - 538, 1992).
Response?
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Projected temperature changes ~ 2-3
degrees C
Slow generation times
Remote possibility that turtles can evolve
quickly enough to track such environmental
change and maintain balanced sex ratios in
the wild.
The View from
New York State…
see:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/index.html
By the end of the century, New York summers
may feel like those of current-day Illinois
Saltmarsh sharp-tailed
sparrow, glossy ibis…
Moving waters
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Slower stream velocity,
Low depth of flow,
High water temperature
Higher levels of turbidity
All = lower levels of dissolved
oxygen
Temporary waters
Winter
Spring
Summer
Lakes
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Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
Increased evaporation and
lower recharge rates
Lake Erie levels to decrease by
as much as five feet by 2100
Forests
Range
periphery
species
Adirondacks are
particularly
climate-vulnerable
“Assisted migration”?
Is there a silver lining?
…of climate change for biodiversity?
Ecosystem resilience: backbone of adaptation
 Continued supply of
ecosystem services depends
on capacity of ecosystems to
adapt to climate change, e.g.:
 maintenance of forests in water
catchment areas, where
landslides are likely to occur
after heavy rain,
 maintenance and restoration of
natural wetlands, to store water
and regulate water base flows
Ecosystem resilience: path to carbon mitigation
;
Terrestrial carbon stocks
Carbon fluxes in ecosystems
Sequester when natural,
tC/ha/year
Tundra (permafrost)
Emit when degraded,
tC/ha/year
0
10
0.4-1.5
10-55
6.3
0.5
Temperate peatlands
0
3-5
Temperate grasslands
0.2
0.2
Semi-deserts
0.13
0.13
Boreal forests
Temperate mixed
forests
Steppe
-0.0009
In theory PAs is the best solution
Why? Because of
Carbon
permanence Sequestration:
capture and storage in:
 Forests
 Grasslands
 Inland waters
 Marine systems
 Soil and humus
Disaster relief:
prevent and retain:
 Avalanche
 Hurricane
 Flooding
 Tidal surges
 Drought
Protected
areas
Future resources:
from wild species
including:
 Agrobiodiversity
 Pharmaceuticals
 Other genetic
material
Resources: for people:
 Clean water
 Fish spawning
 Wild food
 Building materials
 Local medicines
 Shelter
In practice: carbon pools protected and not
85%
carbon is
outside
protected
areas
Total and stored within the protected areas network (green )
13.7% of world’s terrestrial area is protected, but contain 15.2% of C stock
Work ahead to expand role of PAs
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Increase coverage, level of
protection and
management effectiveness,
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Integrated protected areas
in territorial plans –
networks, corridors, incl.
trans-boundary,
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Carbon stock management,
incl. linkages to carbon
markets
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Ecosystem-based
adaptation
Outside PA’s: REDD+
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Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and
Forest Degradation "plus" conservation = the
sustainable management of forests and
enhancement of forest carbon stocks)
Generates funding and political will to
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protect forests
combat climate change
improve human well-being in developing nations.
REDD+
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a suite of policies, institutional reforms and
monetary incentives for developing countries
to reduce “DD”
Governments, industry and local communities
Developing countries:
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Need policies and technical capacity, legal
frameworks and financial mechanisms in
developing countries
Industrialized countries
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need policy and business leaders involved
market-based approaches to create a demand for
forest carbon offsets
REDD+: A Win-Win for Climate and
Biodiversity
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Rate of extinctions projected to be
dramatically reduced
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By 46-80 percent over a period of five years
But only if:
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Viable investment opportunities exist.
Developing and advancing standards that
stimulate markets for forest carbon.
Private sector investment in REDD+ is catalyzed
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Energy and the Environment
Energy policy is a national priority and is critically important in Central and Western New York.
Sound national energy policies will enable America to obtain energy supplies from a wide range of
sources in a way that is best for the economy and at the same time addresses homeland and
national security considerations while creating incentives for responsible stewardship of the
nation’s resources and environment.
The solution was not, is not, and never will be “cap and trade” legislation. The passage of a cap
and trade bill would mean that the federal government would set a limit on the amount of pollution
companies are permitted to emit and require them to obtain allowances or credits for that specific
amount. …Cap and trade legislation would place an enormous burden on Central New York
families – higher gasoline prices, higher heating costs, higher energy taxes, higher
unemployment. Cap and trade, if enacted, would create a new national energy tax, destroy jobs
and economic growth, and further damage the economy for decades to come.
http://www.buerkleforcongress.com/index.php/issues/
End climate change