Transcript Slide 1
Nutrient Mobilization and Species Introductions Analyzing a Science Scenario to Define Critical Site and Network Functionality Overarching Questions: • (1) Under what circumstances is society able to manage the social origins and ecological dynamics of nutrient mobilization and species introductions and under what circumstances does society fail? • (2) Does society perceive and respond differentially to changes in regulating, provisioning, and cultural ecosystem services caused by human alterations in nutrient mobilization and species introductions? Feedback loop: the linkages between social and ecological systems with respect to nutrient mobilization and species introductions External Drivers Socio-Cultural-Economic Systems Cognition, Behavior & Institutions: Ecological Systems Q6 Nutrient Mobilization & Species Introductions Point source • Environmental awareness • Regulatory changes • Incentive programs Natural Community Structure: Diffuse Anthropogenic Q1 Q5 • Producer biomass • Species composition • Species diversity • Trophic structure & complexity Q2 Human Outcomes: • Demographic & social change • Economies and livelihoods • Human health • Landscape conversion Ecosystem Processes: Ecosystem Services: Q4 Regulating: Water quality, maintenance of species diversity Provisioning: Biofuels, feed, fiber, timber, fisheries Cultural: Recreation, tourism, aesthetics, education • Net primary production • Nutrient cycling and export Q3 External Drivers Q1: How do changes in the mobilization of Socio-Cultural-Economic diffuse and non-diffuse sources of nutrients Systems derived from both human and natural origins Nutrient Mobilization interact to influence producer biomass, & Cognition, diversity, netBehavior primary&production and nutrient Species Introductions Q6 Institutions: cycling? Point source • Environmental awareness Approach: Field experiments that alter rates Diffuse • Regulatory changes and •patterns of nutrient mobilization. Incentive programs Natural Anthropogenic Q1 CI Needs: •Sensor networks for soil moisture, temperature, Q5 and CO2 •Wireless network to transmit data from field site to fieldOutcomes: station Human •Software to upload data into a database and • Demographic & social change Ecosystem Services: QA/QC it and livelihoods • Economies • Human health Regulating: •Web programs to display graphs of data inWater quality, • Landscape conversion maintenance of species diversity near real-time Provisioning: Biofuels, feed, Q4 fiber, timber, fisheries Cultural: Recreation, tourism, aesthetics, education Q3 Ecological Systems Community Structure: • Producer biomass • Species composition • Species diversity • Trophic structure & complexity Q2 Ecosystem Processes: • Net primary production • Nutrient cycling and export External Drivers Q2. How do alterations in the sources and rates of Socio-Cultural-Economic nutrient mobilization and species introductions influence the interaction between Systems Nutrient Mobilization community structure and ecosystem processes? & Approach: Various kinds Cognition, Behavior & of process models Species Introductions Q6 Institutions: CI Needs: Point source Diffuse •Storage of model output • Environmental awareness • Regulatory changes system •Model versioning • Incentive programs Natural Anthropogenic Q1 •Modeling expertise Q5 Ecological Systems Community Structure: • Producer biomass • Species composition • Species diversity • Trophic structure & complexity Q2 Human Outcomes: • Demographic & social change • Economies and livelihoods • Human health • Landscape conversion Ecosystem Processes: Ecosystem Services: Q4 Regulating: Water quality, maintenance of species diversity Provisioning: Biofuels, feed, fiber, timber, fisheries Cultural: Recreation, tourism, aesthetics, education • Net primary production • Nutrient cycling and export Q3 External Drivers Q3: How do changes in nutrient dynamics and species introductions affect the types and Socio-Cultural-Economic amountsSystems of services that ecosystems provide? Nutrient Mobilization Approach: Sites will determine how much&a Cognition, & before measurable system canBehavior be altered Species Introductions Q6 Institutions: changes in services provided are detectable. Point source • Environmentalservices awareness (food, fiber, Provisioning biofuels) areDiffuse • Regulatory changes measured as yields and quality.Natural Regulatory • Incentive programs Anthropogenic Q1 services (flood control, water quality) are valued for their assimilative and transformative capacities. Q5 CI Needs: •Data of many new types will need to be Human Outcomes: managed • Demographic & social change •New standards development for Ecosystem Services: • Economies and livelihoods • Human health Regulating: Water quality, measurements/units? • Landscape conversion Q4 maintenance of species diversity Provisioning: Biofuels, feed, fiber, timber, fisheries Cultural: Recreation, tourism, aesthetics, education Q3 Ecological Systems Community Structure: • Producer biomass • Species composition • Species diversity • Trophic structure & complexity Q2 Ecosystem Processes: • Net primary production • Nutrient cycling and export External Drivers Q4: How do cultural and regulating services affected by alterations in the sources and rates Socio-Cultural-Economic of nutrientSystems mobilization and species introductions Nutrient Mobilization influence humans as non-consumptive users? & (i.e.,Cognition, who lives where) Behavior & Species Introductions Q6 surveys to Institutions: Approach: Repeated household Point source Diffuse determine whether human values, perceptions, • Environmental awareness • Regulatory changes and behaviors towards different ecosystem • Incentive programs Natural Anthropogenic Q1 services change over time. Survey data will feed into social/economic models CI Needs: Q5 •Model and model output management Human Outcomes: • Demographic & social change • Economies and livelihoods • Human health • Landscape conversion Q4 Community Structure: • Producer biomass • Species composition • Species diversity • Trophic structure & complexity Q2 Ecosystem Processes: Ecosystem Services: Regulating: Water quality, maintenance of species diversity Provisioning: Biofuels, feed, fiber, timber, fisheries Cultural: Recreation, tourism, aesthetics, education Ecological Systems • Net primary production • Nutrient cycling and export Q3 External Drivers Socio-Cultural-Economic Systems Cognition, Behavior & Institutions: • Environmental awareness • Regulatory changes • Incentive programs Q5 Human Outcomes: • Demographic & social change • Economies and livelihoods • Human health • Landscape conversion Q5: What determines how society chooses between protecting different ecosystem Ecological Systems services threatened by human-induced Nutrient Mobilization changes in nutrient mobilization and species & Community introductions? Species Introductions Q6Approach: Sites will characterize local Structure: and • Producer biomass Point source Diffuse regional government agencies and non• Species composition government organizations’ monitoring • Species diversity Natural Anthropogenic Q1 • Trophic structure & (cognition) of different sources of nutrient complexity loading and species introductions and their adverse consequences to different types of Q2 ecosystem services. CI Needs: Ecosystem •New data types: administrative and legal Processes: Ecosystem Services: editorial opinions, records, news articles, political campaign issues, and election Regulating: Water quality, • Net results, primary production maintenance of species diversity • Nutrient cycling and household and organizational surveys, laws, Provisioning: Biofuels, feed, export enforcement Q4BMPs, fiber, timber, fisheries programs •GIS Cultural: Recreation, tourism, Q3 aesthetics, education External Drivers Socio-Cultural-Economic Systems Cognition, Behavior & Institutions: • Environmental awareness • Regulatory changes • Incentive programs Ecological Systems Q6 Nutrient Mobilization & Species Introductions Point source Natural Community Structure: Diffuse Anthropogenic Q1 • Producer biomass • Species composition • Species diversity • Trophic structure & complexity Q6a.Q5Are mechanisms employed to reduce human alterations in nutrient mobilization and species introductions effective? Q2 Q6b. What unintended consequences arise from mechanisms Human Outcomes: to reduce human alterations in nutrient mobilization employed Ecosystem • Demographic social changeintroductions? and&species Processes: Ecosystem Services: • Economies and livelihoods Approach: Evaluation of the effectiveness of regulatory and • Human health Regulating: Water quality, • Net primary production • Landscape conversion policy changes, educational and marketing campaigns, maintenance of species diversity •and Nutrient cycling and Provisioning: Biofuels, feed, export financial incentiveQ4 programs fiber, timber, fisheries Q3 CI Needs: Cultural: Recreation, tourism, aesthetics, education •New data types: regulatory acts, zoning changes, permitting, citations •GIS Questions for discussion • How much new data will the new research agenda be producing? How much data will be flowing among sites? • What new kinds of data will need to be managed? Is the management of these new data types significantly different from an IM perspective? • How many people will be needed at sites to handle the new information management demands? What type of expertise will these people need? • Are there new standards that will need to be developed? • What will the critical training needs be? • For cross-site projects, should data management be centralized or distributed? Model management? • What resources are needed at the network level vs. the site level?