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How Might Future Climate Change Affect Lake Temperature, Mixing, Algae, and Small Invertebrates? John T. Lehman University of Michigan 15 June 2001 Climate Change and the Great Lakes What types of Ecological Knowledge do we need to understand and predict the effects of climate change? What types of Ecological Surprises might occur? How can we obtain an environmental insurance policy against detrimental effects and surprises? What are the climate forces that are likely to change? •Air Temperature •Humidity •Winds •Precipitation •Cloud Cover •UV Radiation What physical features of the lakes are sensitive to these forces? •Lake surface temperature •Evaporation rates •Surface currents and mixing depths •Duration of thermal stratification •Ice cover General Types of Ecological Knowledge •Individuals and Single Populations •Population Interactions •Communities •Materials and Energy Individuals and Single Populations • Uniqueness of individuals (sexual, asexual reproduction) • Life history and demography • Behavior • Genetics and evolution • Sex ratios • Dispersion and distribution Population Interactions • Predator-Prey (and defense mechanisms) • Parasitism • Symbiosis: mutualism, commensalism • Competition (exploitation, interference) • Indirect Effects • Fundamental and Realized Niche Communities • Species Composition, Richness, Diversity • Indicator Species • Trophic Structure • Keystone Species • Stability and Resilience • Invadability • Substitutability • Ecological Succession Materials and Energy • Primary Production • Secondary Production • Bioenergetics • Biogeochemistry • Biological Magnification or Concentration Managing in the Face of Uncertainty Do we possess complete catalogs of ecological knowledge about the species now present in the Great Lakes? Absolutely not! Does the knowledge we do possess permit us to make any predictions at all? Certainly. Duration of thermal stratification (d 250 200 150 100 50 0 Erie Huron Michigan Ontario Projected duration of thermal stratification under Canadian Climate Centre climate scenario. Superior Max temperature of mixed layer (C) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Erie Huron Michigan Ontario Superior Projected maximum temperature of the mixed layer under Hadley Centre climate scenario. Mean temperature of mixed layer (C 25 20 15 10 5 0 Erie Huron Michigan Ontario Superior Projected average temperature of the mixed layer under Canadian Climate Centre climate scenario. Mean bottom temperature (C) 12 BASE UK2030 UK2050 UK2090 10 8 6 4 2 0 Erie Huron Michigan Ontario Superior Projected average temperature of the lake bottom at average lake depth under Hadley Centre climate scenario. Minimum daily mixing depth (m) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Erie Huron Michigan Ontario Superior Projected minimum mixing depth under Canadian Climate Centre climate scenario. Ecological Effects on the Algae Existing theory about algal ecology teaches us that mixing pattern is a Master Variable for algal population growth and community composition. Given extended thermal stratification and elevated temperatures, what are the: • effects on Diatoms? • effects on colonial Greens and Bluegreens? Ecological Effects on the Algae Existing ecological knowledge points to an impending change from fast-growing, opportunistic, rapid-sinking species to slower growing, stress-tolerant, loss-minimizing species. Rapid-sinking diatom species are presently key to the transfer of energy-rich food from the water column to the sediments, and to the benthic food web. Ecological Effects on the Algae Most of the Great Lakes are presently optically shallow, in the sense that much light reaches below the mixed layer and permits the growth of metalimnetic and hypolimnetic algal populations. Climate factors alone will not change this condition. However, if nutrient loading from watersheds and airsheds increase, the optical state could change. Ecological Effects on Lake Invertebrates Metabolism by invertebrates varies with temperature. Temperature affects • Growth rate • Egg and embryo development • Generation time • Feeding, respiration, and excretion But temperature also raises the metabolism and activity of most lake predators on the invertebrates, as well. Ecological Effects on Lake Invertebrates Most of the Great Lakes presently harbor a group of cold stenothermic invertebrate species which cannot tolerate warm temperatures. Deep, cold water habitat for these species will not disappear. However, the oxygen content of that habitat could become compromised by the end of the thermal stratification period, particularly if nutrient loading were to increase. Ecological Effects on Lake Invertebrates Increased foraging and predation by planktivorous fish will result in changes of invertebrate species toward small bodied forms. The vertical range of zebra mussels may expand, but other benthic invertebrates may suffer from diminished inputs of high quality diatoms as food, and from potential decreases in oxygen. Ecological Surprises Complex interactions among many species increase the likelihood of indirect effects, some of which will lead to ecological surprises. • Species invasions • New or invigorated parasites • Changes in breeding windows • Altered distribution patterns Ecological Surprises Further surprises await us regarding the transformations and fates of environmental toxins. Some toxins, such as Mercury or PCBs, become biomagnified up a food chain. Their chemistry, transport, and effects are tied to biology. Ecological Surprises For example, elevated UV radiation and elevated temperature could • Increase rates at which dissolved elemental mercury is oxidized to ionic mercury • Increase rates of methylation of ionic mercury • Increase accumulation of methyl mercury in food chains leading to large fish How does the rational Public protect itself from disaster and surprise? Science relies on the testimony of evidence rather than the fervor of belief. Observation and theory are the antidotes to ignorance, fear, and doubt. Thoughtful measurements and analyses can provide an early warning system for changes within the Great Lakes ecosystem. How does the rational Public protect itself from disaster and surprise? Regional assessment of Great Lakes response to environmental changes must become a regular activity. This assessment has uncovered many gaps in ecological knowledge that must be filled. Research and reporting collaborations among federal agencies, academic scientists, and interested citizens require public support. Special thanks to Art Brooks and the Workshop sponsors. GCM-projected climate data for the Great Lakes were supplied by NOAA-GLERL.