Transcript 3SAQS Phase II -- Task 2: 2011 Source Apportionment Modeling

Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)
Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)
3SAQS Phase II -- Task 2
2011 Source Apportionment Modeling
Study Design
University of North Carolina (UNC-IE)
ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON)
February 25, 2015
3SAQS Task 2: Source Apportionment
Modeling using 2011 platform
• Objective: To quantify emissions source/receptor relationships in
the three-state region
• 2a: Source Apportionment (SA) Design Document
– Decisions today will be used to prepare design document in March
• 2b: Geographic SA
– Contributions of Western State’s anthropogenic emissions to ozone,
PM, visibility and deposition
• 2c: Emissions Sector SA
– Oil and Gas, EGUs, mobile etc.
• 2d: Detailed SA in Three-State 4 km domain
– Sub-state Basins, Source Categories, etc.
• 2e: SA Website Visualization Tool
• 2d: CMAQ detailed SA in Three-State 4 km domain
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2011a2 CAMx Platform
• 36 km CONUS; 12 km WESTUS; 4 km 3SAQS
• 2011 NEIv1 emissions; 3SAQS O&G
• BCs from GEOS-Chem
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Subtask 2b: Geographic SA
• Contributions of anthropogenic emissions
from western states to ozone, PM, visibility
and deposition using 2011a2 CAMx platform
– Obtain contributions for which western states?
– Which source categories to model separate SA?
– How to post-process for useful displays?
– Relationship with WestJumpAQMS 2008 SA?
– Relationship with EPA Jan 2015 Transport
2018_2011 SA?
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WestJumpAQMS Geographic SA
• CAM V5.4.1 – CB05
• 2008 Base Case EI
• Ozone (APCA) SA
– 36/12 km CONUS/WESTUS
• PM (PSAT) SA
– 36 km domain
– SO4, NO3/NH4, Primary PM
– No SOA – Can post-process
CAMx SOA results to get
mainly Anthro. (SOAA) and
Biogenic (SOAB) SOA
• Fires contribute to both
• 21 Source Regions:
– 17 Western States, EUSA, Mex,
Can, Off-shore
• 5 Source Categories:
– Natural, Anthro., 3-fires (WF,
Rx, Ag)
• 107 Source Groups (21x5+2)
Post-Processing WJ Geographic SA
• CSAPR-type analysis:
– Use MATS to estimate
contributions of upwind state
anthropogenic emissions on
2008 ozone and PM2.5
Design Values
• Spatial maps of state
contributions
• State contributions to
visibility
– Controllable = Anthro+Rx+Ag
• State contributions to
DMA8 ozone and PM2.5
Site: CO_Montezuma0101
Rank: 3 - 09 Jul, 2008
Total Ozone = 74.9 ppb
BC Ozone = 61.6 ppb (82.2%)
Contributions to MDA8 Ozone [ppb]
Rx Fire
AG Fire
Wild Fire
AZ
CA
Natural
Ocean
Mexico
Canada
Eastern
NM
TX
CO
UT
NV
NE
SD
ND
WY
ID
WA
OR
MT
OK
KS
AZ
CA
CO
KS
ID
MT
OK
OR
WA
WY
ND
SD
NE
NV
UT
TX
NM
Eastern
Canada
Mexico
Ocean
Natural
Wild Fire
Rx Fire
AG Fire
AZ (0.11 ppb, 0.15%)
CA (0.48 ppb, 0.64%)
CO (5.67 ppb, 7.57%)
KS (0.04 ppb, 0.05%)
ID (0.55 ppb, 0.74%)
MT (0.05 ppb, 0.07%)
OK (0.01 ppb, 0.01%)
OR (0.15 ppb, 0.20%)
WA (0.02 ppb, 0.03%)
WY (1.97 ppb, 2.63%)
ND (0.00 ppb, 0.00%)
NE (0.21 ppb, 0.27%)
NV (0.21 ppb, 0.28%)
UT (0.43 ppb, 0.57%)
TX (0.05 ppb, 0.07%)
NM (0.86 ppb, 1.14%)
Eastern (0.00 ppb, 0.00%)
Canada (0.00 ppb, 0.00%)
Mexico (0.04 ppb, 0.05%)
Ocean (0.02 ppb, 0.03%)
Natural (2.13 ppb, 2.84%)
Wild Fire (0.30 ppb, 0.4
Rx Fire (0.00 ppb, 0.00%)
AG Fire (0.00 ppb, 0.00%)
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EPA Jan 22, 2015 Ozone Transport
Analysis
• CAMx v6.1 – 2011v1 Platform -- 12 km CONUS domain
• APCA Ozone SA – 2018 Future Year Emissions Scenario
• Contribution Categories:
– Anthro. NOx and VOC from
each State
– Anthro from All Tribes
– Biogenic (CONUS)
– Boundary Conditions
– Other (WF, RX, Ag, OffShore, Can and Mex)
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EPA Jan 22, 2015 Ozone Transport
Analysis
• Project current (2009-2013) ozone AvgDV and MaxDV to 2018
using new MATS (Dec 2014)
– Nonattainment and Maintenance Monitors
• Determine contribution of Upwind State’s Anthro. Emissions
to downwind monitors
– Unlike CSAPR and WJ, MATS approach not used
– If Upwind State contributes ≥ 1% NAAQS 2018 DV  Significant
Contribution
• Outside of CA, Chatfield, Colorado only
nonattainment/maintenance monitor in west
– Significant contributing States to Chatfield: CA (1.17 ppb); UT (0.92
ppb); and WY (1.29 ppb)
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2b: Proposed 3SAQS Geographic SA
• CAMx V6.2 – 2011a2
36/12 km Platform
• 2011a Emissions
• APCA Ozone and PSAT PM
– SO4, NO3/NH4, Primary PM
– No SOA (SOAA & SOAB)
• 17 West States, Can, Mex
and Off-Shore (like WJ)
– Add neighbor states (LAMN)?
• 5 Source Categories:
– 3-Fires (WF, Rx, Ag)
– Natural (Biogenic, WBD,
LNOx, SS)
– Anthropogenic
2b: 3SAQS Geographic SA Analysis
• Regional Haze Rule (RHR) metrics analysis
– Current analyzing WJ 2007 SA this way
– Investigate modeled and monitored metrics related to
reducing manmade visibility impairment
• CSAPR-type ozone & PM analysis
• Spatial maps of state contributions
• Web-based visualization tool display state contributions:
– DMA8 ozone, 24-hour PM2.5 and visibility for all days
– Annual PM2.5 and S/N deposition
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Subtask 2c: Emissions Section SA
• Obtain source contributions from major Source
Categories at the National-scale
• WestJumpAQMS Source 2008 Base Case SA:
– APCA Ozone 36/12/4 km
– PSAT (No SOA) 36/12 km
Source Contribution at CO_Weld0009
Canada+Mexico
1.4% Area 1.9%
Total ozone = 72.7 ppb
BC = 44.2 ppb (60.8%)
Unexplained
1.0%
Unexplained 1.0%
Natural 4.7%
– 6 Source Categories:
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Natural (Bio, WBD, LNIX, SS);
Oil and Gas; Points;
Mobile; All Fires (WF+Rx+Ag); and
Remainder
– 5 Source Regions (CO, NM, UT, WY)
Natural 4.7%
Fires 0.6%
Fires 0.6%
Upstream Oil+Gas 5.2%
Point Sources 6.9%
Upstream
Oil+Gas 5.2%
Mobile 17.6%
Canada+Mexico 1.4%
Area 1.9%
Mobile 17.6%
Point Sources
6.9%
2c: 3SAQS Proposed Source Sector SA
• CAMx V6.2 -- 2011a2/2011b – 36/12 km domains
• APCA Ozone and PSAT (SO4, NO3/NH4, PM)
• Seven Source Categories:
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–
–
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–
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Natural (Bio, WBD, LNOx, SS)
Upstream Oil and Gas
All Fires (WF+Rx+Ag)
On-Road Mobile
Non-Road Mobile
Points
Remainder
• 5 Source Regions
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Subtask 2d: Detailed 4 km Domain SA
• CAMx v6.2 APCA/PSAT
• 4 km BCs from CAMx
2011a2 36/12/4 km
simulation
• Source Regions -- Partial
States:
– e.g., Basins
• Source Categories:
– EGU Point; Other Point;
On-Road; Non-Road;
Different O&G source
types, Natural, Other
Anthro
Subtask 2f: CMAQ SA
• Configure CMAQ exactly the same as CAMx
Subtask 2d Detailed 4 km SA modeling
– Have not run CMAQ SA tool yet so don’t know all
of the features and options
• Compare CAMx and CMAQ SA results
• Develop recommendations for SA modeling
using CAMx and CMAQ
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Subtask 2e: Web-based SA
Visualization Tool
• Have developed prototype using
WestJumpAQMS 2008 Geographic SA results
– Pie Charts for 10 Highest DMA8 ozone days
– CSU working to integrate in DW
• For 3SAQS Web Tool will implement all days
– Include MPE and CONUS BC contribution
– More drill down capability
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Next Steps Task 2 SA Modeling
• Draft Task 2 SA Study Design Plan in mid-March
– 3SAQS TechCom comments by end of March
• Start 2011 Geographic SA modeling in March
– Proposed same configuration as WestJumpAQMS
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2011a2 36/12 km; APCA and PSAT (SO4, NO3/NH4,PM)
2011a Base Case emissions
21 SrcGrps: 17 western states; EUSA; Can; Mex; Off-Shore
5 SrcCats: Natural 3-Fires (WF, Rx, Ag); Anthropogenic
– Need 3SAQS TechCom comments now
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