Transcript - Global Farm Platform

Managing greenhouse gas intensity and
resource use for beef cattle in Australia
Beverley Henry, Queensland University of Technology
Stephen Wiedemann, FSA Consulting
Tom Davison, Meat and Livestock Australia
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Queensland University of Technology
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Results of an Australian beef LCA 1981-2010
PRODUCTION: 52% increase in total beef produced from 1981 to 2010.
WATER: 65% reduction in water use from 1981 to 2010 (1465 to 515 L/ kg LW).
ENERGY: 75% increase in fossil fuel energy demand from 1981 to 2010 (6.3 to 11
MJ/kg LW).
LAND: 700% increase in arable land occupation (0.2 – 1.7Mha)
19% decrease in non-arable land (from 57% to 46% of Australia’s total area)
CLIMATE CHANGE: 14% decrease in GHG intensity (excluding LUC) from 1981 to
2010 (15.3 to13.1 kg CO2e/ kg LW)
~41% decline in net LUC GHG emissions for beef.
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Interpreting the results for Australian beef
Challenges:
Data & Methodology: Non-uniform variations in data availability and quality; methods? eg land use
Context and reasons for changes: Management and natural factors interact in complex ways
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Environmental context for Australian beef
Distance, arid/semi-arid rangelands, nutrient-poor soils
Tropical
Temperate
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Source: BoM & MLA
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30-year
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climatology (1961-1990)
BoM
Understanding development of the industry
Expansion of pastoralism
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Beef production
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LCA beef regions
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Water use for beef production 1981-2010
Fresh water consumption (L per kg LW)
65% reduction in consumptive water use (1465 L/ kg LW in 1981 to 515 L / kg LW in 2010).
1981-1985
1986-1990
1991-1995
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1996-2000
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2001-2005
2006-2010
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Fossil fuel energy demand for beef production
Energy demand (MJ per kg LW)
Fossil fuel energy demand increased by 75% 1981-2010 (6.3 to 11 MJ/kg LW).
1981-1985
1986-1990
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1991-1995
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1996-2000
2001-2005
2006-2010
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Land occupation for beef production
19% decrease in non-arable land
(57% to 46% of Australia’s total area of 7.7 M km2)
LAND:
700% increase
arable
7-fold increase
in arableinland
useland
(0.2occupation
– 1.7Mha) (0.2 – 1.7Mha)
19% decrease in non-arable land (from 57% to 46% of Australia’s total area)
1981-1985
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2006-2010
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GHG emissions intensity
GHG emissions (kg CO2-e per kg LW)
14% decrease in GHG intensity (exclu LUC)
Examples of production changes
Carcase weight increased by 13.5%
Mortality rates down from 4.0% to 2.7%
Weaning rates showed little change
41% decrease in net LUC emissions for beef
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Carbon
credit
incentives
=
opportunities??
Herd Management Method
Scenario of opportunities for income from GHG mitigation
Total credits in Total
Revenue Emissions
Total Expenses
Net Income
Analysis
Australia’s
Reduction
Fund (ERF)
Kimberley Region breeding & Live Export enterprise (Baseline: 10,000 breeding cows)
Scenario
1: 70% weaning rate
Herd
Management
Method
16,492
$202,027
$103,750
$98,277
Scenario 2: 65% weaning rate + higher ADG
22,036
$269,941
$103,750
$166,191
Scenario
Total
Credits Total
Revenue Total
Expenses
Net
Income
Northern Territory
(Victoria&River
District)enterprise
Weaner production
(Baseline:
15,000
breeding cows)
Kimberley
Region breeding
Live Export
(Baseline: 10,000
breeding
cows)
Scenario
weaning
raterate
Scenario1:1:70%
65%
weaning
19,796
$242,501
$103,750
$138,751
16,492
$202,027
$103,750
$98,277
Scenario
weaning
raterate
+ higher
ADG weaners at sale
Scenario2:2:65%
70%
weaning
+ heavier
46,480
$569,380
$103,750
$465,630
22,036
$269,941
$103,750
$166,191
Queensland backgrounding
backgrounding property
property(Baseline:
(Baseline:15,000
15,000steers)
steers)
Queensland
Increased ADG,
ADG, earlier
earlierturn-off
turn-off
52,927
$648,356
$103,750
$544,606
Scenario 1: Increased
$648,356
$103,750
Increased ADG,
ADG, heavier
heavierturn-off
turn-off
43,015
$526,934
$103,750
$423,184
Scenario 2: Increased
$526,934
$103,750
Nitrates Method
Scenario 1: 30,000 breeding cows
Scenario 2: 10,000 breeding cows
9,520
3,175
$116,620
$38,888
$103,750
$103,750
$12,870
-$64,862
Notes: Values for total over the crediting period and maximum carbon abatement contract duration, e.g. 7 yrs for Herd Management Method
Expenses include reporting and auditing but not capital expenditure or non-carbon revenue impacts.
Analysis identified the best opportunities for Australian beef producers as:
 Herd Management for backgrounding operations when large (>30,000 AE)
[to minimise compliance costs per credit unit]
 Nitrates where high level supplementation given to more cattle (>50,000 AE)
 Savannah burning projects in non-productive [high rainfall >1000mm] pastoral areas
with recurring late dry season wildfires
 Native forest
projects
[Avoided
variable
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potential depending on scale and site productivity
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Summary
LCA results for Australia’s beef industry generally show:
 positive trend in resource use efficiency;
 negative trend in emissions intensity.
Consistency in data quality/completeness and methodology is a challenge!
Producers are already making changes mostly for productivity and profitability
but are improving environmental outcomes. Future gains will benefit from
new technologies but be challenged by climate variability/change.
Temperatures to reach mid-40s in inland NSW
13/01/2016
Opportunities for income from carbon credits exist, but magnitude and
direction depend on scale and admin costs. Good record keeping is critical.
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THANK YOU
[email protected]
We gratefully acknowledge MLA for financial support for the LCA study and leadership in the ERF
analysis; QUT for support for the LCA study; Phil Cohn for financial analysis of ERF opportunities
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