Transcript Part 1 - Climate Change and Security

Climate change and security
Professor Colin Butler
ARC Future Fellow
Department of Defence Canberra, JuneCRICOS
28, 2013
#00212K
Climate change is a geopolitical "threat multiplier,"
UK climate envoy says
Molly Peterson
| March 5th, 2012
Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti
2
CRICOS #00212K
A climate and resource security dialogue for the 21st century
Date: Thursday 22 - Friday 23 March, 2012
Location: Lancaster House
Hosted by the Foreign & Commonwealth
Office in partnership with Wilton Park
A climate and resource security dialogue for the 21st century
focused on the emerging threat climate change poses to
global security and prosperity.
UN Security Council debate (07/11); Berlin conference Climate
Diplomacy in Perspective (10/11).
Climate change has the potential to exacerbate existing
tensions and fragilities in states vulnerable to climate and
resource stresses such as extreme weather.
https://www.wiltonpark.org.uk/conference/wp1167/
3
CRICOS #00212K
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon
climate change and conflict
• "In coming decades, changes in our environment
and the resulting upheavals from droughts to
inundated coastal areas to loss of arable land are
likely to become a major driver of war and
conflict"
March 1, 2007
CRICOS #00212K
4
Climate Change: Multiplier of
Conflicts and Regional Tensions
From UK
Ministry of
Defence
[May RM, 2007 Lowy
Institute Lecture]
Regions afflicted by problems
due to environmental stresses:
• population pressure
• water shortage
• climate change affecting crops
Water
• sea level rise
scarcity
• pre-existing hunger
•
armed conflict, current/recent
CRICOS #00212K
5
World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk
German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2007
6
CRICOS #00212K
“The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be
discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
7
CRICOS #00212K
8
CRICOS #00212K
“If the country faces famine and widespread
hunger … which loss of crops will almost
certainly generate”.. “resultant situation could
lead to a nuclear war at worst, and
conversion of this part of the world into a
centre for terror activities at best.”
Fateh Ullah Khan Gandapur, former chair of Indus River System Authority (editorial April
2009) in Pakistan’s largest circulation daily newspaper.
Bagla, P. 2010. Along the Indus River, Saber Rattling Over Water Security.
Science, 328, 1226-1227.
9
CRICOS #00212K
Climate change will affect the Asian water
towers. Science (2010)
“extremely important”
“very important”
10
CRICOS #00212K
The counterview
Water conflicts avoided .. Scarcity increases
pressure for peace e.g. De Stefano et al (2012). Climate change and the
institutional resilience of international river basins. Journal of Peace Research, 49, 193-209.
“The constant struggle for the waters of the Jordan .., and other
life-giving Middle East rivers, little under-stood outside the
region, was a principal cause of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and
could help spark a new all-out conflict.” e.g. Cooley (1984). The War over
Water. Foreign Policy, 54, 3-26.
CRICOS #00212K
11
Population/resources: an old debate
Hung Liang-chi
1744-1809
Honda Toschiaki
1744-1821
Thomas Malthus
1766-1834
CRICOS #00212K
12
Non-human carrying capacity
CRICOS #00212K
13
CRICOS #00212K
14
Human Carrying Capacity
population supportable, in good health,
into the foreseeable future
• Non-human species: CC = fn [natural capital]
• Human CC = fn [Natural, social, human, built and
financial “capitals”]
–
–
–
–
Inter-convertibility of types of “capital” (partial)
Ability to expand HCC via culture/technology
But: need to conserve the essential natural capital
And, as capital/person declines, so can co-operation
(social capital) – risk of conflict
CRICOS #00212K
15
Health
determinants
Environmental
(e.g. food , water,
energy)
Material
Police, military
law, other
determinants
Security
e.g. distribution
now and in future
Research, technology,
co-operation , eg
vaccines, hospitals,
health care systems
Scientific,
Technical
Health
Political
Cultural
e.g. Attitude to women,
treatment of dying,
tolerance
Freedom (e.g.
speech, travel,
employment),
policies
Tolerance
16
CRICOS #00212K
Security
determinants
Environmental
(e.g. food , water,
energy)
Material
Law, local,
national,
international
Behaviour
Military personnel
and hardware
Military
Security
Political
Freedom and
responsibility
Cultural
e.g. tolerance, sense of
identity, anticipation
17
CRICOS #00212K
18
CRICOS #00212K