Transcript D4-Magadzire-RRSU.pps - The World AgroMeteorological

SADC activities on the use
of GIS and RS for
Agricultural Meteorology
T. Tamuka Magadzire
SADC Regional Remote Sensing Unit, USGS/FEWSNET
WMO/FAO Training Workshop on GIS and Remote Sensing Application in Agricultural Meteorology for SADC Countries.
November 14-18, 2005
Gaborone, Botswana
Outline
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Background to SADC Region
SDC RRSU Background
Available EO-based data
Modelling Applications of EO data
End-user information products
RRSU Database
Partnerships - GMFS
The SADC Region - Background
Southern African Development Community
Prone to floods and droughts.
• 14 Member States.
• 200+ million people.
• Varied climate regions.
• Mostly uni-modal rainfall
systems (bi-modal in the
north).
• Varied cropping systems.
• Maize (corn) dominant crop
• Cassava and tubers
important in the north.
• Rain fed agriculture –
irrigation only significant in
South Africa and Zimbabwe.
The SADC Region - Background
Climatic Hazards in SADC
• Floods and droughts are the major climatic hazards in the SADC
Region.
• Serious drought in 1991-92:
• Flooding in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana and South Africa
in 2000:
– Cyclones Eline and Gloria responsible.
– 4 million people affected. Lessons learnt.
– SADC Disaster Management Strategy formulated.
• Further flooding in ensuing years (e.g. in 2003 from Cyclone
Delfina (January) and Cyclone Japhet (March))
• Serious droughts between 2001 and 2005 in several SADC
countries:
1995-96
1996-97
1999-2000
2000-01
2003-04
2004-05
1997-98
2001-02
1998-99
2002-03
SADC RRSU: Organizational Context
• The SADC Secretariat is comprised of four
directorates, including the Food, Agriculture and
Natural Resources (FANR) Directorate
• The SADC Regional Remote Sensing Unit
(RRSU) is a project within the FANR Directorate
Institutional Setting
SADC RRSU Cooperating Partners:
• Technical support and training.
• Emergency food assessments.
• Supply of satellite data.
• Technical support and training.
• Vulnerability assessment activities.
• Support to the Regional Disaster
Management Strategy.
• Supply of satellite data.
Main Objective of RRSU
• Strengthen national and regional capabilities in
the area of Remote Sensing, Agrometeorology
and GIS.
• Support early warning for food security and
natural resources and disaster management.
• Principal contact institutions:
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National Meteorological Services (NMSs).
National Early Warning Units (NEWUs).
National Disaster Management Units.
SADC RRSU: Operational Activities
• Training of agro-meteorologists in the use of satellite
imagery products and GIS for early warning for food
security.
• Monitoring crops, vegetation and weather
developments during the crop growing period using
satellite images and GIS techniques.
• Developing and maintaining database of satellite
images, maps and associated data.
RRSU: Agromet & GIS Training
• Creating trained experts in RS and GIS applications.
• National staff seconded to RRSU
• Backstopping missions organized
for on-the-job training in Member
States.
• Subject- or applicationspecific workshops
conducted at national and
regional levels.
SADC Region Early Warning Information
flow
• Outgoing: satellite-based information and
analysis
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
SADC Region Early Warning Information
flow
• Incoming: ground-based information and analysis
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
NEWU
Available EO-based Data
• Available satellite-based data used for
Agromet activities are vegetation products
and rainfall estimates.
• These products are analyzed and further
processed into application specific
products for flood and drought monitoring
by USGS/FEWSNET and RRSU
Monitoring Rainfall Activity
• Rainfall Estimate (RFE) images.
• Combine satellite images with rain gauge observations.
• RRSU receives RFE images from USGS – EROS Data Center.
NOAA Rainfall Estimates
• Rainfall Estimates (RFE) are produced by NOAA for the FEWSNET
activity, and distributed in southern Africa through RRSU
• Uses a number of datasets
– Meteosat data used to composite a CCD image at -38oC, a rainfall estimate is
generated from the CCD using the GOES Precipitation Index (GPI). GPI =
CCD x 3
– WMO GTS rainfall data from approx. 1000 stations (not all stations used at any
given time), and are taken as the true rainfall within 15-km radius of each
station
– Two satellite microwave instruments, SSM/I (Special Sensor
Microwave/Imager) and the AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit),
which acquire data every 6 hours and every 12 hours respectively.
• The four datasets are merged to produce an improved product
RFE – Related Activities
• SADC RRSU operates the WinTRES system and
generates daily and dekadal Cold Cloud Duration (CCD)
images from Meteosat-7 TIR images
• RRSU currently working on computer algorithms in
collaboration with Botswana Met Services to enable the use
of MSG Meteosat-8 images in CCD generation
• Interest has been expressed by SADC nationals in
improving RFE using local rain gauge data
• Some workshops have been held by NOAA on
implementation of their RFE production technique locally in
Africa – RRSU installed this technique locally for short time
– Limited by operational availability of rain-gauge information
Monitoring Vegetation Condition
• Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images.
• Sources of NDVI are NOAA AVHRR (8km), SPOT VGT (1.1km) and MODIS
(250m)
MODIS: 250m
AVHRR: 8 km
SPOT: 1 km
Seasonal Trends
• Time series curves for visualizing seasonal trends.
– Comparing against long-term (average) trends.
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Main crop-growing regions in SADC monitored.
Monitoring Crop Condition: WRSI
• The Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) is a
crop specific water balance approach that models the
effect of seasonal rainfall availability on potential crop
yields.
• Two approaches are used in the SADC region – using
satellite-based, distributed approach, and a groundbased point-specific approach
• The model is being used in several SADC countries to
monitor crop water use with a view to yield forecasting
and estimation. SADC RRSU is providing training
• Operational model run at USGS but modern modelling
software now publicly available from FAO and USGS.
Water Requirements Satisfaction Index
Crop Water Balance Modeling
Water Requirements
Satisfaction Index
(WRSI)
WRSI=100*AET/WR
Regression models
Yield Estimation
WRSI Water Balance - Products
WRSI
Start of Season
WRSI Anomaly
Soil Water Index
SWI, West Africa
WRSI Anom,
East Africa
SOS, Southern Africa
•Can model for multiple regions or countries
•Can enter field information on planting, soils, maturity
•Can model using information for
•multiple planting dates
•multiple varieties (maturity periods)
•multiple crop types
•Range of outputs: SOS, WRSI, WRSI Anom, SWI etc
WRSI, Zambia
End-user Information Products
• A number of bulletins are produced to meet
information requirements, including:
– Regular agrometeorological updates at 10-daily
and monthly intervals
– Ad-hoc “Significant Weather Developments”
(SWD) bulletin which aims to “ provide timely
highlights of developing weather patterns and their
potential impacts to human lives and property”
– Other special bulletins to address current or
issues e.g. forecast interpretation; drought alert
• Rainfall
Agromet Up-dates
Agro-Meteorological
Update
• Areas
• Crops
• Models
• Rainfall
Agro-Meteorological Update
• Areas
• Crops
• Models
Significant Weather
Forecast Cyclone Developments
Tracks
Major River Basins
Examples from SWD bulletins
RRSU Database
Developed and maintained on central computer at the RRSU
 Abridged onto CD for external use.
 Simple and open data formats make data portable.
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RRSU Standard Vector Data.
Satellite data.
Raster images with climatic
parameters.
Tabular data with agricultural statistics
and population data.
Free WinDisp 3.5 & 4 software for data
viewing.
Current CD-ROM version is 2.0.
Details from [email protected]
RRSU Data holdings
• comprises both baseline datasets and
earth observation datasets, compiled from
a variety of sources
• uniform regional standard vector data set
for SADC at a scale of 1:1 million was
compiled as part of this dataset
– originated from the DCW
– updated using inputs from the SADC
countries
RRSU Data holdings
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Administrative (borders, subnational boundaries, cities)
Elevation
Land use and land cover
Hydrology (water bodies, rivers, lakes)
Infrastructure (roads, railroads, bridges, airports, utility
lines)
Soil
Agriculture (crop zone maps)
Climate (rainfall, temperature etc)
Demography
Satellite images
RRSU Data holdings
Administrative
Infrastructure
National borders of SADC countries
Roads in SADC countries
Sub-national boundaries of SADC countries
Railroads in SADC countries
National borders of SADC countries (FAO/GIEWS version)
Road and Railroad Bridges in SADC countries
Level 1 sub-national boundaries of SADC countries (FAO/GIEWS version)
Airports in SADC countries
Major cities and towns of SADC countries (FAO/GIEWS version)
Utility lines in SADC countries
Cities and towns of SADC countries
Soil
Urbanised areas of SADC countries
Soil types in SADC countries
Cultural landmarks of SADC countries
Agriculture
Elevation
Crop zone maps of SADC countries (FAO/GIEWS version)
Digital elevation model
Crop harvest dates of SADC countries (FAO/GIEWS version)
Elevation contours in SADC countries
Crop planting dates of SADC countries (FAO/GIEWS version)
Spot elevations in SADC countries
Historical crop statistics for the SADC countries
Land use and land cover
Crop Water Satisfaction index (1996 – 2005)
Land cover areas of SADC countries
Start of rainfall season estimates (1996 - 2005)
Forest types in SADC countries
Climate
Managed areas (including national parks) in SADC countries
Dekadal, long term average: rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration
Centre points of managed areas in SADC countries
Monthly, long term average: radiation, humidity, wind
Hydrology
Satellite Rainfall estimates from 1995 to 2005
Small water bodies of SADC countries
Demography
Rivers of SADC countries
Population for SADC countries, by province
Surface water bodies of SADC countries
Satellite images
Perennial and non-perennial water layers in SADC countries
MODIS imagery (2000-2005)
Wetland types in SADC countries
AVHRR NDVI vegetation images (1981-2005)
Lakes of SADC countries
Landsat imagery: regional coverage for 1970s, 1990s, 2000s
Small islands and lakes of SADC countries
ASTER (partial SADC coverage) imagery for late 2001, early 2002, and 2003
Small coastal islands of SADC countries
Meteosat thermal infrared and cold-cloud duration imagery
SPOT-4 VGT NDVI vegetation images (1998-2005)
Partnerships - GMFS
• SADC RRSU has been collaborating with the
GMFS consortium over the last couple of years
• GMFS is developing products for estimation of
yield and area planted to crops, as well as other
monitoring products
– Concentrating on using a combination of SAR and
optical EO data to id crop extent and phenological
stages
• GMFS has done some preliminary work for
product development in Malawi, with potential
for spreading to SADC region
• Products are currently being validated by GMFS
Contacts
• RRSU Coordinator
– Dr. Kennedy Masamvu: [email protected]
• Regional Agrometeorologist
– Dr. Elijah Mukhala: [email protected]
• Database Specialist
– Mrs. Dorothy Nyamhanza: [email protected]
• Research Assistant
– Mr. Blessing Siwela: [email protected]
• GeoInformatics Scientist (USGS/FEWSNET Regional Rep. Southern Africa)
– Mr. T. Tamuka Magadzire: [email protected]
Website: http://www.sadc.int
Re a leboha
Grazie
Zikomo
Obrigado
Gracias
Thank You
Tinotenda
Siyabonga
Asante sana
Merci Beaucoup
Websites for cyclone monitoring
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Forecasted cyclone track:
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Latest cyclone track:
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http://www.eumetsat.de/en/index.html?area=left5.html&body=/en/m_area5.html&a=500&b=0&c=0&d=0&e=0
Other useful websites for extreme-weather monitoring:
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http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/trajGP/data/home_trajGP.html
Latest satellite imagery:
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http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/newjtwc.html
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh0203.gif
http://www.sadc-hazards.net
http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/briefing.html
http://www.dmc.co.zw
http://grads.iges.org/pix/af.fcst.html
http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WXMAP/index.html
http://metservice.intnet.mu/wsatpic.htm
http://weather.yahoo.com/regional/AFRICAX.html
http://gisdata.usgs.net/sa_floods/aspmap/
Note: Although the SADC national meteorology websites have not been included
here, they are very good for monitoring. Links to most of them can be found at:
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http://www.sadc.int/ ???
NOAA RFE - Limitations
• Weaknesses in datasets
– Microwave inputs have 6hr and 12hr repeat rate: estimates can
either miss out some storms altogether, or overestimate rainfall
when the satellite image is taken at the peak of a storm
– Rainfall is estimated most accurately in the vicinity of GTS
gauges
– Meteosat-derived GPI estimates capture convectional rainfall
very well. However, other rainfall types (e.g. orographic) are
not estimated as accurately. Also cirrus clouds can cause overestimation
* Note that the merging process makes these datasets complementary