Transcript Rethinking the Future - Paul Allen, Tobi Kellner, Alice

Why Zero Carbon Britain?
• New norms – temperature, oceans acidifying, arctic ice
• New extremes – heatwaves, droughts, floods
• More to come – both expected, and unexpected
Where we’re heading today
Zero Carbon Britain
UK GHG emissions today
Net zero GHG emissions
ZCB shows that
UK greenhouse gas emissions can be
reduced to net zero.
• Without relying on future technology.
• Without major impacts on quality of life.
ZCB shows that
UK greenhouse gas emissions can be
reduced to net zero.
• Without relying on future technology.
• Without major impacts on quality of life.
How do we do this?
ZCB shows that
UK greenhouse gas emissions can be
reduced to net zero.
• Without relying on future technology.
• Without major impacts on quality of life.
And can we
• ‘Keep the lights on’ with carbon neutral and
renewable energy systems?
• Provide a healthy balanced diet lower in GHG
emissions that has positive impact on land use?
UK GHG emissions today
UK GHG emissions today
Energy in ZCB
Key Question:
Can we
“keep the
lights on”?
The ZCB
Energy Model:
Based on ten
years of
real-world
hourly data
2002 - 2011
87,648 hours
100%
Power output (%)
80%
region A
all UK
regions
region B
60%
40%
20%
0%
19/5/11
21/5/11
23/5/11
25/5/11
27/5/11
Land use in ZCB
UK GHG emissions today
UK GHG emissions today
Agricultural GHG emissions today
~ 10%
of UK
total
Land use today
• About 12% = forest (European average = 37%).
• Despite 85% imports.
• 65-70% = food production/agriculture
• Despite 42% imports.
• 85% of agricultural land = livestock.
Current average UK diet
64% of adults overweight/obese
(Bates et al, 2011).
71% of deaths in 2010 from dietrelated disease (WHO, 2013).
•
Too much food.
•
An unhealthy balance.
•
Too much HFSS and high protein foods.
•
Too little fruit, vegetables and cereals.
• Waste (30% in Europe (FAO, 2011)).
Emissions
Land use
Nutrition
• Healthy,
balanced diet.
• Low GHG
emissions.
• Using only
land we already
use for food.
ZCB scenario
Agricultural GHG
emissions -73%.
• -50% waste.
• Eat only what we need.
• Product switch.
ZCB scenario
Agricultural GHG
emissions -73%.
• -50% waste.
• Eat only what we need.
• Product switch.
• 5-6 portions
meat/dairy/eggs.
• 4 portions pulses/tofu.
• + Milk for tea/coffee.
ZCB scenario
Agricultural GHG
emissions -73%.
• -50% waste.
• Eat only what we need.
• Product switch.
• 5-6 portions
meat/dairy/eggs.
• 4 portions pulses/tofu.
• + Milk for tea/coffee.
1. Food
• About a quarter of
today’s grazing
grassland is needed.
• All cropland still
used, but allocated
differently.
• Imports decreased
from 42% to 17%.
2. Growing energy and fuel
Total = 274 TWh/yr
3. Capturing carbon
Safe, proven, well
supported
methods:
• Double forest area.
• Increased use
of wood products.
• Restore 50%
of peatlands.
~ 45MtCO2e/yr
Zero Carbon Britain
UK GHG emissions today
Net zero GHG emissions
ZCB shows that
• Net zero GHG emissions is achievable.
• We can ‘keep the lights on’ with carbon
neutral and renewable energy systems.
• A healthier balanced diet is lower in GHG
emissions and has positive impact on land.
Benefits beyond carbon
• Potential for job creation ~1.5 million jobs.
• Help us adapt and increase our resilience to
climate changes.
• Better outlook for biodiversity.
• Improve our health and wellbeing.
Benefits beyond carbon
• Potential for job creation ~1.5 million jobs.
• Help us adapt and increase our resilience to
climate changes.
• Better outlook for biodiversity.
• Improve our health and wellbeing.
A positive future.
We have the technology to power ourselves
with 100% renewable energy, to feed ourselves
sustainably and to leave a safe and habitable
climate for our children and future generations.
www.cat.org.uk | @centre_alt_tech
www.zerocarbonbritain.org | #ZCB