Transcript Hannover climate neutral 2050

Hannover 2050
(How)
Can a city become climate neutral in 2050?
Are 100% renewable energy in industrial conurbations possible?
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | September 2011, Brüssel
Challenges
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1. By 2022 Germany will have phased out nuclear power.
2. To protect the climate, we will have to opt out of coalbased power generation in the mid term.
3. Due to the worldwide demand for energy, oil and gas
reserves will have (virtually) run out by 2050 at the
latest.
• The conclusion: we need a plan for 100%
renewables
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
Issues
•
•
•
How much renewable energy is Hannover sustainably
likely to have (i.e. without creating new ecological
problems and without exploitation at the cost of other
regions) in 2050?
Does the expected supply meet the expected demand
and what challenges are anticipated?
Key info: for the first time in a local study, a detailed
analysis that factors in electricity and heat and traffic
(normally renewable energy studies deal only with
electricity)
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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4
1.
Renewable energy
potential in/for Hannover
in 2050
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
Solar energy in Hannover
• There are about 32 million m² of roofs in Hannover
• Goal: to use all suitable roofs in the city
• Approx. 22% (approx. 7 million m²) of the roofs are suitable
for solar power (minus areas for dormer windows, shade
etc)
• In residential properties, solar thermal energy is used to
generate hot water, all other roofs for photovoltaics
• Result for 2050:
• 6.5 million m² photovoltaic areas = 1,150 GWh/a
• + approx. 0.5 million m² hot water collectors = 210
GWh/a
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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Regional thinking in wind and bio mass
Only a regional perspective makes sense when
considering bio mass and wind renewable potentials
• In the cramped confines of the city there are no
relevant potentials for wind and bio mass.
• Compared with the surrounding area, Hannover’s
energy consumption is defined by trade and industry
(53% of consumption today). 1/3 of people employed
in Hannover live in the surrounding area. In the future,
they will have to “contribute” their own share of
energy.
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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Hannover region plus 20 surrounding towns
2,3 km²
1,1 Mio.
inhabitants
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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Regional bio gas
• Usage of residues (organic wast of househoulds,
green waste, straw, beet leaves, potato leaves) and
liquid manure  340 GWh/a
• Energy crop cultivation on 17% of arable land
Proportion Hannover 2050:
(divided up according to consumption [electricity 61%; heat 51%])
130 GWh/a electricity + 700 GWh/a bio gas
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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Regional Windpower
• In the Hannover region, 240 wind farms are already
available (biggest number in inland Germany)
• The figure is not to be increased, but consistent repowering with 3 MW plants (140 m hub height, 100
m rotor blade diameters)
Proportion of electricity (61%) distributed to Hannover population
2050: 850 GWh/a from the region
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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Further regional renewable sources
Water
Local potential from the River Leine fully exploited with three hydro
power stations = 10 GWh/a
Timber:
Waste wood from forests and industry in the region
Proportion of heat consumption (51%) distributed to
Hannover population
 25 GWh/a
Waste incineration:
Assumption: waste at today’s level
(ecologically doubtful; priority given to recycling!)
Electricity generation 25 GWh/a,
Connection to the district heating grid => 160 GWh/a heat
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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Partizipation of national sources
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wind power offshore:
Germany 2050 = 45 GW
proportional to the population of Germany – calculated for Hannover
1,100 GWh/a Wind offshore
National hydro power:
bigger hydraulic power stations
proportional to the population of Germany – calculated for Hannover
= 130 GWh/a
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
Local deep geothermal energy
• Hannover has considerable heat reserves at vast
depths (drilling about 3.000 m deep
• Trial drilling to use heat for electricity and heating
• Assumption: in the city 25 drills à 2 MW connected to
the district heating network
• Producing a potential of 30 MW of electricity and 270
MW heat
• Feasibility and efficiency are currently being checked
and are not yet certain
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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Summary of the renewable energy in 2050
according to Siepe/von Krosigk’s study
Strom aus Erneuerbaren Energien [GWh/a]
2009
Wind Region
190
Wind offshore
0
Wasser Region
7
große Flusswasserkraft
96
Biogas
62
PV
3
Abfall
157
Geothermie
0
Summe Strom
515
2050 Steigerung
843
444%
1.086
10
143%
121
126%
77
123%
1.154
44373%
157
100%
32
3.478
676%
Wärme/Treibstoffe aus Erneuerbaren Energien [GWh/a]
2009
2050 Steigerung
Biogas
116
361
312%
Abfall
0
188
Geothermie
0
270
Holz
?
26
Solarthermie
?
212
Summe Wärme
?
1.057
Total supply of renewable energy
4,500 GWh/a
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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Possible scenario for a distribution of renewable
energy potentials for electricity, heat and fuels
Primary energy supply of renewable energies
(incl. pipe and storage losses)
Waste
3% Geothermal energy
Bio gas
2%
1%
Hydro power
Photovoltaics
24%
Germany
3%
8%
Heat,
fuels
Water
Region
0.2%
Bio gas
Wind offshore
23%
24%
Waste
4%
Geothermal
energy
6%
Wind region
Solar thermal
power
5%
19%
23% heat + fuels
77% electricity
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
Timber
1%
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the storage issue
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If about 80% of the total renewable energy is
distributed as electricity via cables, the storage issue
is entirely different from before:
In addition to expanding the European grid and more
pumped storage plants, local solutions are increasing
in importance. This could be the sign for public utilities
to act:
• Smart Grid; intelligent energy networks
• Underground cavern compressed air storage
• Car batteries as temporary storage
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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2. How much energy will
Hannover probably
need in 2050?
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
Analysis of national wide studies
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The basis of the needs assessment is analysing and
extrapolating information from the following three
studies
[1] Greenpeace Germany: Climate Protection Plan B 2050
[2] WWF Germany: German Model:
Climate protection till 2050
[3] German Environment Agency: Energy objective 2050:
100% of electricity from renewable sources
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
Results of the national studies to
the situation in Hannover:
2005
2050 with significant
efficiency drive
(average of the 3
studies)
2050 with extreme
efficiency drive
(in each area maximum
of the 3 studies)
Final energy
14,900 GWh/a
5,760 GWh/a
4,750 GWh/a
Primary energy
6,600 GWh/a
5,600 GWh/a
62%
68%
(including storage
losses)
Final energy
reduction
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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In 2050, how much energy will be
required and what for (in GWh/a)
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2005
2050
max.
Decrease
Heating for buildings
9.000
1,900
80%
Electrical applications
(excluding traffic)
3,200
1,800
44%
Traffic
2,700
1,000
64%
Final energy
Total
14,900
4,700
68%
approx. 5,600 primary
energy including storage
losses
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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3. How does the renewable
energy supply and demand in
Hannover correlate
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
Results
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• In Hannover 14,500 GWh/a are consumed today
• The national studies se a max. reduction to 5.600
GWh/a
• Only 4,500 GWh/a of renewable energy will probably
be available sustainably
• We need an reduction of about 70% compared by 2005
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
But…
70% reduction is a massive challenge! It will require a
substantial change in the mindsets of consumers, more
intelligent planning on the part of architects (less
resistance to insulation), more intensive regulation from
the EU and German government and a whole range of
other aspects.
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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But a huge opportunity for the economy too
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• People living in Hannover, trade and industry spend about
1.5 billion euros a year on electricity, heat and fuel.
• This figure includes approx. 440 million euros in purchasing
costs for gas, oil and coal, the majority of which today goes
to Russia, the Middle East and Australia.
• In the case of a full renewable energy concept most of the
€440 million (amount set to rise heavily in the future with
increasing energy costs) will be available to put back into
regional business.
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes
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Thank you
for listening.
Internet:
www.sustainable-hannover.de
Hans Mönninghoff | City of Hannover | June 2011 | Nantes